Jonathan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 remember that spring begins on March 1 in the weather world. Avg high is pushing 60 here by early March. I haven't seen a decent March snow in 23 years and I don't expect to see another one anytime soon. Jan 15-Feb 15 is the one month window where we usually have the best chance for snow. Good thing it's only Jan 9th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 In Vegas 1/17 - 1/23. Hoping for 3 real weeks of winter the last week of Jan through the first half of feb. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 When are we going to learn that we cannot get away from the cutters and NW trend? Did anyone actually think that the 12Z Euro run was going to have any snow on it for us? I'm glad a saved that clown map for the 00Z Euro run. I'll look at it when it's raining at my house next week. I hope those that know better knew.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Good thing it's only Jan 9th... Good point. That means winter is only 44% over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Good point. That means winter is only 44% over.It's 100% over in Carrollton and Waycross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's 100% over in Carrollton and Waycross It probably is but I don't care. I travel to wherever the snow is. I don't care if Carrollton doesn't get snow for another 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Still a long way to go. And it isn't like this is the last shot all winter. The woe is me stuff is ridiculous. Easy there, Brick. I know how things usually go around here in the winter. Just having some fun to lighten the mood. I know that snow may be back on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 EPS closer with day 5 event, no real strong signal for day 8. One big change is the -AO is gone by day 6 and the NAO is hanging by a thread by day 8, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 remember that spring begins on March 1 in the weather world. Avg high is pushing 60 here by early March. I haven't seen a decent March snow in 23 years and I don't expect to see another one anytime soon. Jan 15-Feb 15 is the one month window where we usually have the best chance for snow. Climo doesn't really mean much sometimes, just look at December. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 EPS closer with day 5 event, no real strong signal for day 8. One big change is the -AO is gone by day 6 and the NAO is hanging by a thread by day 8, LOL. Does not surprise me, a low tracking that insanely far south in the Gulf like that across Florida is relatively rare. I still think that event is coming more north, not sure how far but north of where the 12Z Op has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Does not surprise me, a low tracking that insanely far south in the Gulf like that across Florida is relatively rare. I still think that event is coming more north, not sure how far but north of where the 12Z Op has it.Let's hope the next 2 hit because we lose blocking and go straight to a 83 type look on euro. Cold air gets marginal, I imagine you guys would still do ok.Let's pray for a SSWE next 2 weeks to save Feb. +AO is ugly on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let's hope the next 2 hit because we lose blocking and go straight to a 83 type look on euro. Cold air gets marginal, I imagine you guys would still do ok. Let's pray for a SSWE next 2 weeks to save Feb. +AO is ugly on euro. And that can change, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 And that can change, too. Agree...Could get worse and go Feb 98 on us or even back to Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Agree...Could get worse and go Feb 98 on us or even back to Dec. Wasn't there a monster snowstorm in Feb 98 in Middle TN that dumped feet of snow in some areas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Day 5 event got a lot closer, putting all my eggs in this basket. Cold air is marginal but when isn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Agree...Could get worse and go Feb 98 on us or even back to Dec. Way to look on the bright side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Got snowier for the MLK storm and still darn snowy through day 15. Interesting its show as much if not more snow than DC to NYC...like that's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Way to look on the bright side. You only freak out about my not so rosy posts, do I get points for the last 2 posts I made? You and Mack only want me to whisper sweet nothings to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Got snowier for the MLK storm and still darn snowy through day 15. need suppression, amongst other things .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just for Brick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 EPS closer with day 5 event, no real strong signal for day 8. One big change is the -AO is gone by day 6 and the NAO is hanging by a thread by day 8, LOL. The wave on the day 5 event is fairly weak, so it would probably require some phasing to get precip pulled north into any cold air. For day 8, the mean was a little colder, with a little better setup over Hudson Bay and SE Canada...and it's was a little more suppressed from previous run. Regarding the long range, it looks pretty darn good to me. Yeah, I see the lower heights sneaking up to the pole, but that's on the E Hemisphere side. The most important area of the high latitudes for us is in the W Hemisphere from Alaska, across Canada, Greenland, to the pole. The west based NAO look remains. 850mb temperature anomalies are below normal for mid/late January for each day from day 2 to day 15. HM says Euro was a good strat run (we'll see, lot to overcome there). Also, we are going into a major AAM increase (not my area of knowledge other than the basics), but that means we'll see a lowered trajactory of waves entering the west coast in nino split flow (southern California). All things considered, I'm pretty gung ho on the pattern. Of course, we'll always have challenges, and will need to get proper timing of features across southern Canada into the Canadian maritimes to have the cold air setup properly...but I like where we are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Day 5 event got a lot closer, putting all my eggs in this basket. Cold air is marginal but when isn't it... wow, that is a money look on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The wave on the day 5 event is fairly weak, so it would probably require some phasing to get precip pulled north into any cold air. For day 8, the mean was a little colder, with a little better setup over Hudson Bay and SE Canada...and it's was a little more suppressed from previous run. Regarding the long range, it looks pretty darn good to me. Yeah, I see the lower heights sneaking up to the pole, but that's on the E Hemisphere side. The most important area of the high latitudes for us is in the W Hemisphere from Alaska, across Canada, Greenland, to the pole. The west based NAO look remains. 850mb temperature anomalies are below normal for mid/late January for each day from day 2 to day 15. HM says Euro was a good strat run (we'll see, lot to overcome there). Also, we are going into a major AAM increase (not my area of knowledge other than the basics), but that means we'll see a lowered trajactory of waves entering the west coast in nino split flow (southern California). All things considered, I'm pretty gung ho on the pattern. Of course, we'll always have challenges, and will need to get proper timing of features across southern Canada into the Canadian maritimes to have the cold air setup properly...but I like where we are going. The day 5 potential I thought was close, and the changes needed really happen day 3 to 4, if that southern piece can sneak out just ahead then it would be a suppressed day 5 event and it would bring cold air down into it, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 ^ That's a fairly attractive map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let's hope the next 2 hit because we lose blocking and go straight to a 83 type look on euro. Cold air gets marginal, I imagine you guys would still do ok. Let's pray for a SSWE next 2 weeks to save Feb. +AO is ugly on euro. I'll gladly take the pattern the euro ensembles are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Here's the improvement over SE Canada from Euro Ensemble for next weekend. 00z run on top, this morning's 12z run on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 ^ That's a fairly attractive map.just move that southern wave east to the southern tip of Texas or slow that northern piece down and you have a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Here's the improvement over SE Canada from Euro Ensemble for next weekend. 00z run on top, this morning's 12z run on bottom ^ We'd be better off seeing both the 50/50 low and the Miss Valley low anomaly farther south, but it's an improved look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 You only freak out about my not so rosy posts, do I get points for the last 2 posts I made? You and Mack only want me to whisper sweet nothings to you... Only if you take me out to dinner first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 ^ We'd be better off seeing both the 50/50 low and the Miss Valley low anomaly farther south, but it's an improved look Like you showed it's been changing literally every run, we haven't had back to back runs that relatively went unchanged. Still 8+ days out, I can't imagine what this will look like in 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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