January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[griteater]

Waves gets strung out over the southern plains....has the look of a prolonged overrunning event into a cold high this run (though not nearly as cold as the last run)

[packbacker]

Waves gets strung out over the southern plains....has the look of a prolonged overrunning event into a cold high this run (though not nearly as cold as the last run)

Still a nice southern energy in Tx at 180 with another piece dropping down. It's hard to imagine specifics being right, it's probably going to take waiting inside day 5.

[BIG FROSTY]

Waves gets strung out over the southern plains....has the look of a prolonged overrunning event into a cold high this run (though not nearly as cold as the last run)

I'd take a prolonged precip event with a mixed bag!!! At least it didn't lose it altogether...... 

[Jon]

Looks like a Miller B Mess @198...this one isn't gonna do it.

The HP over the east on the 00z Euro is absent for the 12z, nothing keeps the system from cutting

[griteater]

Yep initial wave gets strung out, then more energy (vorts) dive in and it becomes a big storm...a warm miller b

[packbacker]

Looks like a Miller B Mess @198...this one isn't gonna do it.

The HP over the east on the 00z Euro is absent for the 12z, nothing keeps the system from cutting

50/50 weaker. Why it's so hard to get winter events down here, especially phased ones. These 50/50's tend to want to get out quicker then models think (north trend).

[mackerel_sky]

It can't cut with that sweet block

[Shawn]

The Euro could be worse. Lots of moving parts that won't be modeled correctly much outside 120 hours. Even 120 hours is pushing it.

[Jon]

Congrats DC to NYC to Cape Cod, 984mb bomb.

[packbacker]

It can't cut with that sweet block

The blocking ain't what it used to be a couple of days ago. We better hope this day 5 event gives us a few flakes as the day 8 event screams runner/millerb and thus rain for us. #MaybeFeb

In 98 we had 2-4" by Jan 19th...still believe 98 may be tough to beat on snow and temps.

[snowlover91]

One key to remember is that the strength and track of the first storm on the 14-15th will significantly effect the track of the 17-18th system. If it does like last nights Euro and phases it will set up the blocking we need for the 17-18th. If not it would probably result in the 17-18th storm taking a Miller B solution and cold rain for many.

[Jon]

The Euro could be worse. Lots of moving parts that won't be modeled correctly much outside 120 hours. Even 120 hours is pushing it.

Yep, it definitely could be worse. I'm interested in the ensemble means and how it changed given this run. This is one solution of 1000 and it just happens it's not snow for us. Pattern supports southern storm, IMO.

[packbacker]

Congrats DC to NYC to Cape Cod, 984mb bomb.

How often we get south trends? LOL

Why we shouldn't by "great" patterns until inside day 5.

[Cold Rain]

The pattern will only support a southern storm if the blocking actually turns out to be as strong as advertised and the PV isn't up in central Canada. Either one of those turns out to be weaker or in the wrong place, then props to Shetley. Still, it's an incredibly complicated pattern with energy everywhere.

[franklin NCwx]

The pattern will only support a southern storm if the blocking actually turns out to be as strong as advertised and the PV isn't up in central Canada. Either one of those turns out to be weaker or in the wrong place, then props to Shetley. Still, it's an incredibly complicated pattern with energy everywhere.

and it will change next run and the next.....

Energy coming out of the southwest at long leads will yield different solutions from run to run.

[franklin NCwx]

How often we get south trends? LOL

Why we shouldn't by "great" patterns until inside day 5.

pattern is there but the timing changed.

[Cold Rain]

and it will change next run and the next.....

Energy coming out of the southwest at long leads will yield different solutions from run to run.

Definitely agree. I couldn't care less about the SW energy or what the model does with it 6 + days out. My area of interest is up north. Does strong, west-based blocking actually take shape? Is there a PV/50/50 in the general vicinity of SE Canada? Does the PNA ridge get beaten down? I'm not worried about the SW energy; it will be there, and its interaction with any northern stream energy will be highly variable at this lead.

[Shawn]

Virtually none of the 12z GEFS members have anything through 192 hours for substantial snow. Not really a good sign that things will not leave the 192-288 hour or more time-frame for many days.  Seems like a consistent loop of "maybe the next one".  Guess it's common for Winter weather chasing in the Southeast though.

[TullyHeel]

But yesterday the GFS was leading the way...clown maps and all. Now the EURO is the only one to show SE snow and all of a sudden IT'S leading the way.

I was speaking generally, most of the time the Euro leads I'm the way. I even said yesterday when the GFS had the great run I would feel better if the Euro had it instead and the GFS followed the lead. Try to keep up.

[Jon]

Virtually none of the 12z GEFS members have anything through 192 hours for substantial snow. Not really a good sign that things will not leave the 192-288 hour or more time-frame for many days.  Seems like a consistent loop of "maybe the next one".  Guess it's common for Winter weather in the Southeast though.

Still pretty good for 1/18...this would classify as ensemble support.

 

big change from 06z

[BristowWx]

Congrats DC to NYC to Cape Cod, 984mb bomb.

Don't worry, we suck most times so this is just a blip. Would rather have is suppressed at this range.

[mrdaddyman]

Congrats DC to NYC to Cape Cod, 984mb bomb.

 

When are we going to learn that we cannot get away from the cutters and NW trend? Did anyone actually think that the 12Z Euro run was going to have any snow on it for us? I'm glad a saved that clown map for the 00Z Euro run. I'll look at it when it's raining at my house next week.

[TullyHeel]

And how often have we seen the Euro show a big storm, lose it for a couple of days, and then bring it back but less extreme.

[TullyHeel]

When are we going to learn that we cannot get away from the cutters and NW trend? Did anyone actually think that the 12Z Euro run was going to have any snow on it for us? I'm glad a saved that clown map for the 00Z Euro run. I'll look at it when it's raining at my house next week.

Still a long way to go. And it isn't like this is the last shot all winter. The woe is me stuff is ridiculous.

[NCSNOW]

One key to remember is that the strength and track of the first storm on the 14-15th will significantly effect the track of the 17-18th system. If it does like last nights Euro and phases it will set up the blocking we need for the 17-18th. If not it would probably result in the 17-18th storm taking a Miller B solution and cold rain for many.

Spot on. The MLK needs what you just described in order to do what it did on 0z euro. My focus is watching this week. The late week storm has alot of potential for us. The circumstances that will affect it will be much clearer for the models by Sunday nighy/Mon a.m. aside from seeing what the oz euro did with it, I'm relieved 12z was suppressed. Lot of potential with Thurs, Friday. You can watch all the ops and see the possibilities even when they shoot blanks. There will be a fee more twist and turns with the Thurs / Fri and until it gets resolved the mlk event is going to be plotted all over the map over the next several days.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Still a long way to go. And it isn't like this is the last shot all winter. The woe is me stuff is ridiculous.

I think people are just concerned that this is going to be a repeat of last year and things won't get going until Mid Feb. Who on earth wants to wait that long ? By Mid Feb the winter is practically over.

[superjames1992]

I think people are just concerned that this is going to be a repeat of last year and things won't get going until Mid Feb. Who on earth wants to wait that long ? By Mid Feb the winter is practically over.

By mid Feb we have approximately another month left of winter and late Fab Feb and early March have had some huge storms in years past.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Spot on. The MLK needs what you just described in order to do what it did on 0z euro. My focus is watching this week. The late week storm has alot of potential for us. The circumstances that will affect it will be much clearer for the models by Sunday nighy/Mon a.m. aside from seeing what the oz euro did with it, I'm relieved 12z was suppressed. Lot of potential with Thurs, Friday. You can watch all the ops and see the possibilities even when they shoot blanks. There will be a fee more twist and turns with the Thurs / Fri and until it gets resolved the mlk event is going to be plotted all over the map over the next several days.

I'm rooting for NC late week. I'm off a few days and i'm ready to come up there if there's a big snow.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

By mid Feb we have approximately another month left of winter and late Fab Feb and early March have had some huge storms in years past.

remember that spring begins on March 1 in the weather world. Avg high is pushing 60 here by early March.  I haven't seen a decent March snow in 23 years and I don't expect to see another one anytime soon. Jan 15-Feb 15 is the one month window where we usually have the best chance for snow.

[NCSNOW]

Saw a interesting tidbit from Larry that a large% of SE snowstorms in strong ninos happened with the nao posotive. Not all of them. So even the perfect pattern doesn't gurantee results, but I think most would agree this pattern we moving into does increase the normal odds we are faced with. Be fun seeing how all this shakes out. I'll ne suprised if my area doesn't see some accumulating snow before Jan ends.