SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I wasn't born then and am not the best on keeping bookmarks from past events. Is there a link or good write-up on that event you could toss my (or the forum's) way? That one sounds interesting. It seems what got them was the sneaky deep 500 vort behind the low. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0122.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yeah I forgot to mention the most obvious one LOL Yeah, I don't think we're going to get a storm this massive, but it's so unique how the storm oriented. Atlanta doesn't usually get the comma cloud snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That 93' Super Storm if I remember correctly.. had a sharp cutoff through the Midlands of SC also. Areas like Atlanta saw much more than Columbia proper... I believe that big comma was lifting away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That 93' Super Storm if I remember correctly.. had a sharp cutoff through the Midlands of SC also. Areas like Atlanta saw much more than Columbia proper. It sure did, places just to the west of us got hammered and we mostly got nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Regardless, we are talking about deep detail that should be left for 72 hours or less out. It was a good Euro run and a ton of people got the monster they were looking for (back to back storms). What we need to do is analyze the ensembles from the Euro and figure out what can go wrong more than "how much where?". I think it's always best to look at what can "break" versus what can "work" for our areas in the South and Winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Eps does not look supportive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 What we need to see now is consistency. I want to see the GFS and CMC begin jumping on board with this solution as well. I also would like to see the Euro hold on to this solution at 12z and 00z tomorrow. If we can go through Saturday with other models jumping on board and Euro holding serve then it's safe to say we have something to track. Alot will depend on the evolution of this weekends storm. Consistency is the key now especially as we begin to get inside 120 hours where models should begin locking in to a solution. Hopefully the Euro is leading the way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not one eps member out of 51 supports the op lol. They improve in days 12-14 but not before day 12 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Not one eps member out of 51 supports the op lol. They improve in days 12-14 but not before day 12 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk From what I can tell they differ in timing but have the general idea. A lot will depend on how soon the energy kicks out and the placement of the blocking. That may be why they show a good bit of snow but a little later than the Euro. Best overall EPS with 2"+ across most of NC and 2.5-3" amounts northern and western areas. Best snowfall average imo and lots of threats between January 17-22 it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 From what I can tell they differ in timing but have the general idea. A lot will depend on how soon the energy kicks out and the placement of the blocking. That may be why they show a good bit of snow but a little later than the Euro. Best overall EPS with 2"+ across most of NC and 2.5-3" amounts northern and western areas. Best snowfall average imo and lots of threats between January 17-22 it seems. Yeah I was a little quick , there are a lot of warm solutions as well but most have the general as you said Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yeah I was a little quick , there are a lot of warm solutions as well but most have the general as you said Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think what we need to see now is the GFS and CMC jump on board. We need better model agreement right now because the shown many different solutions for the 14-15th system. I'm not even worried about the 17-19th one because the evolution of the first one will significantly effect that second storm. Same goes for 21-23 storm also. The long range eps also looks solid with blocking holding out through end of the run and cold anomalies across the SE for 13 out of 15 days. That's pretty impressive and a nice reversal from our December torch. The models, and analogs, were very helpful in mid December for showing an early January flip which verified nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just went back and looked at the 0z GFS and even that had lots of potential in the LR. Of course we want it to move towards the euro for the first system but man I'm liking the recent model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Well the 6z was not good. Nothing really until day 9 and then it cuts a low up west of the Apps. (but)Doesn't look right because of the highs to the north. You would think it would shove it SE. But who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Then it does have a SE storm at day 11 and then more threats after that.... But so many different solutions on the table.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just saw the Euro run. That's what I am talking about! Love that it is the Euro and love that it has back to back storms with the first inside 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just saw the Euro run. That's what I am talking about! Love that it is the Euro and love that it has back to back storms with the first inside 7 days. Let the fun and games begin, :snowwindow:will have to see what Robert's thoughts are on this as well as Chris S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let the fun and games begin, :snowwindow:will have to see what Robert's thoughts are on this as well as Chris S. The Euro had the heaviest snow over the TN Valley in the 00Z run from the previous night - take away - lots of solutions and chances for snow for the entire Southeast in this pattern - here is hoping it works out for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover29 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Hi all I'm new here! Northern Greenville sc about a hour from Asheville! I love me some snow.... Euro looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Para euro was very close to the op euro but both miss, so maybe not that close. It strings out the day 5-6 energy and just misses a phase and then the day 7-8 threat it has a nice piece of energy in s-TX and another in Kansas but they just miss the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Anyone looking at the euro from last night would drool at the possibilities (me included), but it would be best to proceed with a high degree of caution. It really didn't have very much in the way of ensemble support. Playing pin the tail on the donkey blindfolded after doing the dizzy bat race may be easier than figuring out the interactions between streams past day 3/4. At any rate, it's nice to get a few operational runs and some individual ensembles pointing to solutions that are snowy for many in the southeast and TN Valley regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Anyone looking at the euro from last night would drool at the possibilities (me included), but it would be best to proceed with a high degree of caution. It really didn't have very much in the way of ensemble support. Playing pin the tail on the donkey blindfolded after doing the dizzy bat race may be easier than figuring out the interactions between streams past day 3/4. At any rate, it's nice to get a few operational runs and some individual ensembles pointing to solutions that are snowy for many in the southeast and TN Valley regions. agree, been disappointed many times than not, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Taken verbatim, that first storm is a Wake County classic.. meaning NW wake near brier creek gets 6 inches and southern wake near Fuquay gets barely nothing. I can go ahead and guarantee the dividing line will setup near or on wake. Always does! Also, RAH isn't seeing it THE GFS SOLUTIONKEEPS THE LOW OFF OF THE COAST ON FRIDAY BUT THE ECMWF DOUSESCENTRAL NC WITH PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ITAPPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIQUID AS TEMPERATURESMODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AGAIN A FLURRY CANT BERULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONTBUT AS OF NOW THIS WOULD BE A RAIN EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 EPS-para shows what I think is going to happen....day 5/6 event suppressed and OTS and then the 17/18th threat it tracks it through central gulf states over central GA then up apps and looks to transfer right over NC and hammers the MA/NE. Strong signal for that. If we are to see snow I like the 21-23, there is strong support from both the EPS and EPS-para for this timeframe. So the 11+ day pattern is a serviceable pattern. But this time it's for real. Rarely do we (SE) get the first east coast winter threat, it's always the MA to the NE, they have to get theres first, just how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Might not be as extreme as the Euro, but there are real strong signals for winter storms forward starting next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 2 members support op day 5-6 event. 14/51 members get flakes in the area by the 19th 23/51 members by 24th Let's see if 12z improves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Taken verbatim, that first storm is a Wake County classic.. meaning NW wake near brier creek gets 6 inches and southern wake near Fuquay gets barely nothing. I can go ahead and guarantee the dividing line will setup near or on wake. Always does! Also, RAH isn't seeing it you know its always rain chasing cold very frustrating, cold is here until we get moisture then it warms up, go figure, MAN, or vise versa cold chasing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Anyone looking at the euro from last night would drool at the possibilities (me included), but it would be best to proceed with a high degree of caution. It really didn't have very much in the way of ensemble support. Playing pin the tail on the donkey blindfolded after doing the dizzy bat race may be easier than figuring out the interactions between streams past day 3/4. At any rate, it's nice to get a few operational runs and some individual ensembles pointing to solutions that are snowy for many in the southeast and TN Valley regions. Well, one of the few times I'm up and contemplating staying up just a bit longer for the Euro and it goes and does this. I'm with you except I have a hard time buying we don't get something next week. The indices just scream. For something like the Euro is showing... Maybe not as extreme but again hard not getting really excited. I'm just hoping for Friday into Saturday as I'm leaving that Saturday lol. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 EPS-para shows what I think is going to happen....day 5/6 event suppressed and OTS and then the 17/18th threat it tracks it through central gulf states over central GA then up apps and looks to transfer right over NC and hammers the MA/NE. Strong signal for that. If we are to see snow I like the 21-23, there is strong support from both the EPS and EPS-para for this timeframe. So the 11+ day pattern is a serviceable pattern. But this time it's for real. Rarely do we (SE) get the first east coast winter threat, it's always the MA to the NE, they have to get theres first, just how it goes.not true. It almost always snows in the mtns even into north georgia before the I-95 cities see their first snow. I saw the Para and it has two lows one goes thru tenn and the other tracks along the gulf and up the coast. I seriously doubt that's how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Through 12 days on the euro ensembles I counted 23 with snow here. That's 50 percent, pretty good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 not true. It almost always snows in the mtns even into north georgia before the I-95 cities see their first snow. I saw the Para and it has two lows one goes thru tenn and the other tracks along the gulf and up the coast. I seriously doubt that's how it plays out. You can't count higher elevation areas the same. Normally you get so many more events than non mountain areas. Plus there is so much more population that is effected outside your area. I use to to live in Boone and we would get winter event after winter event. They were ready for it, so it did not have the same impact. Rocky Mountains are the same way; higher elevations get many events and then finally Denver gets a snow and that makes the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.