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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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GFS going Op euro on us, splits the PV send a piece west of lakes. Model agreement. Essentially a repeat of this weekend, cutter.

Cutters gonna cut.

Euro op today was suppressed. Could be holding energy back a little longer. But it was a much different result to me than the 0z gfs that just ran. Euro pretty much dropped the hammer with the 0 850 line down into the GOM. I get your point at 500mb on the PV split look, but it had a much more consolidated andweighted/pressing look on the euro v/s what we just saw. Just shows how finicky the least little bit of change to the orientation of the main features up to our north will affect the end result.
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lol. I'm just been sarcastic tonight the models will look much better tomorrow I guarantee it.... Dr. Go, will have us all pumped in a little while!

I know you are. Tight rope to walk to reel this in. I'd be happiest with the PV getting in the right spot and hanging out for a few days and just let the stj gives us the overrunners. The big dog miller A is to risky. But even riskier is a miller B, my least prefered.

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Canadian drops a piece of the PV over the Great Lakes similar to the 12z Euro, brings plenty of cold with energy rolling east from the Rockies. Definitely a cold look but being 10 days out I'm sure it will change considerably. There are about 4-5 different systems between now and then that will impact the evolution of this.

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Amazing what 24hrs can do. Both valid 12z 1/17: 00z yesterday compared to 00z today. 50/50 low with deep and bleeding east high pressure with a low off the NC coast. So far so good, we have ourselves a nice little setup..

e11f4acf77b82a1e9110df1d6ac0c859.jpg

97330d96b250ea091bffa7dba3fe36dd.jpg

This is why you can't get too concerned over GL lows if they won't be there when it matters most...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/47535-January-Mid-long-Range-Winter-Discussion/page__view__findpost__p__3837453

Still a lot of time to change but you can't hate the trends.

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