burgertime Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I don't know why it would give anyone pause actually. It happened multiple times the last two years where the GFS and ensembles kept trying to warm things up in the extended. I am not sure why anyone even looks at the GFS long range anymore and it will likely perform even more poorly with the upcoming split-flow. When the EPS and GGEM agree with the GFS then go ahead and use it, but when it's on an island I would proceed with an abundance of caution. Bingo. We need the pattern to get here first. GFS in the LR is making a lot of guesses. It can go either way but given the past couple of years and how the models look going into next week this is a big change and it won't just go away after a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Lol...well hopefully we will see some smoke soon! Hopefully it's not from a smoldering dumpster !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This entire winter season I think I have looked at the long range (200+) maybe twice. It is covered enough in here without even having to pull it up. But agree. Pattern must be in place first. This is regardless on what system(s) is showing in the mid-long range. Under 5 days or 120 hours and it should be game on. Bingo. We need the pattern to get here first. GFS in the LR is making a lot of guesses. It can go either way but given the past couple of years and how the models look going into next week this is a big change and it won't just go away after a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The main thing I don't understand with these models is you have a crashing SOI which should get the stj going again with plenty of moisture. Normally that happens 1.5 to 2 weeks after the crash. I.e. December mid month crash and rains coming around Christmas. Seems like the poking of the Nino will gives us more chances coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro says that the cold weather is going to stick around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro says that the cold weather is going to stick around for awhile. Not convinced the 10-11th idea is off the table yet either...clear as mud really but the blocking seems solid regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Not convinced the 10-11th idea is off the table yet either...clear as mud really but the blocking seems solid regardless The good news is the Euro brings in true arctic air. The bad news is everything will be suppressed...which could also be good news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The good news is the Euro brings in true arctic air. The bad news is everything will be suppressed...which could also be good news? For you...yes. For me not so much...but l am at the point that it would be fun to track even YOUR snow at this point. the best part of this game we play is the tracking and we haven't tracked anything but heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The good news is the Euro brings in true arctic air. The bad news is everything will be suppressed...which could also be good news? As we've said bring the cold and then we'll worry about moisture. (Like I said earlier) It's not out of the question for us to get a clipper with a suppressed pattern. Models never pick up on these until a few days out. **They normally do not produce much but can surprise us sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The good news is the Euro brings in true arctic air. The bad news is everything will be suppressed...which could also be good news?yeah I would chg the question mark to a period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The good news is the Euro brings in true arctic air. The bad news is everything will be suppressed...which could also be good news? If I have to lose snow, I'd rather lose it to Phil and Lookout than Ji and those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 If I have to lose snow, I'd rather lose it to Phil and Lookout than Ji and those guys. no problem with that. I don't see you guys losing to us this year...call me crazy but all I see for the MA is suppression and depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 If I have to lose snow, I'd rather lose it to Phil and Lookout than Ji and those guys. Very nice sentiment, indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yeah, I hear you. I just can't worry too much about 360+ when we have cold weather right on the doorstep. Maybe we relax a bit and come back strong. Or maybe we don't relax much at all. Lots of flip-flopping in the LR will continue. JB is all in on east coast storm next week, day 9-10. Admittedly he is 0-2 this winter so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 JB is all in on east coast storm next week, day 9-10. Admittedly he is 0-2 this winter so... With the pattern coming up it's going to be difficult to be wrong. Worst case he claims the storm came just a few days later than he thought. Someone is going to get a good snow out of this over the next two weeks. The question will be who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 With the pattern coming up it's going to be difficult to be wrong. Worst case he claims the storm came just a few days later than he thought. Someone is going to get a good snow out of this over the next two weeks. The question will be who. [/quoteWell that's simple.....Boston Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 4 times in 2 weeks...incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Map from Ryan Maue on Twitter: This is from the new 12z EPS. Does anyone else think this looks like a pattern we don't typically see until LATE WINTER? Awfully large trough reminiscent of a mature pattern. Big storm look to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Very nice sentiment, indeed! I still think you get to play this year. Suppressed is our friend I vote everything stay suppressed until April, and I'll take my chances. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro day 11, super blocking setting up, but pac is a little messy, although I am hoping that the models are just struggling with the super STJ....in other words I don't like what I see so I belittle the models handling of things LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro day 11, super blocking setting up, but pac is a little messy, although I am hoping that the models are just struggling with the super STJ....in other words I don't like what I see so I belittle the models handling of things LOL We get cold, then some Greenland ridging, then the STJ wave approaches from the desert southwest, with a gulf low. Good signal there. Verbatim it's too warm, but it's a good setup that has some good features...for example, surface pressures are higher over the Great Lakes than they are over Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro day 11, super blocking setting up, but pac is a little messy, although I am hoping that the models are just struggling with the super STJ....in other words I don't like what I see so I belittle the models handling of things LOL That looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 We get cold, then some Greenland ridging, then the STJ wave approaches from the desert southwest, with a gulf low. Good signal there. Verbatim it's too warm, but it's a good setup that has some good features...for example, surface pressures are higher over the Great Lakes than they are over Maine. This is moving to a textbook blocky strong nino...should be very interesting to see how snow chances shake out down the road. EPO completely flips by day 8 and we are with -AO/-NAO, SE trough. These are the 7 "snowy" strong nino's versus latest EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Euro day 11, super blocking setting up, but pac is a little messy, although I am hoping that the models are just struggling with the super STJ....in other words I don't like what I see so I belittle the models handling of things LOL I don't see anything terribly alarming with the graphic you posted. In fact, looks great. Super -AO, -NAO, undercutting jet, ridging west coast and a trough coming out of the southwest and no where to go but east with nice confluence....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I don't see anything terribly alarming with the graphic you posted. In fact, looks great. Super -AO, -NAO, undercutting jet, ridging west coast and a trough coming out of the southwest and no where to go but east with nice confluence....... Didn't say it was bad, just it was a mess as pattern is changing still, this intense cold shot coming day 6 lasts for 3 or 4 days and then we see serious moderation and a typical strong nino pattern set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Didn't say it was bad, just it was a mess as pattern is changing still, this intense cold shot coming day 6 lasts for 3 or 4 days and then we see serious moderation and a typical strong nino pattern set in.I've been hearing that a true niño pattern is right around the corner since October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Didn't say it was bad, just it was a mess as pattern is changing still, this intense cold shot coming day 6 lasts for 3 or 4 days and then we see serious moderation and a typical strong nino pattern set in.How can you see the moderation? The cold and great looking pattern are still 11-15 days away!?You using the accuweather 30 day forecast now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Didn't say it was bad, just it was a mess as pattern is changing still, this intense cold shot coming day 6 lasts for 3 or 4 days and then we see serious moderation and a typical strong nino pattern set in. Oh, i guess i took you not liking what you saw differently than you meant it. My bad. I am not sure I buy one 3 to 4 day cold shot at this point, but with a powerful pac jet it's certainly a possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 How can you see the moderation? The cold and great looking pattern are still 11-15 days away!? You using the accuweather 30 day forecast now ? Because we lose the -EPO and now have to rely on -AO/-NAO to deliver cold, with pac low in GOAK it's not going to be a super cold pattern. Just the run to run changes are amazing...look at the difference between 12z today and 12z yesterday for days 9-14...moderation. This doesn't bother me at all, this is what I expected to happen, not a super cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Because we lose the -EPO and now have to rely on -AO/-NAO to deliver cold, with pac low in GOAK it's not going to be a super cold pattern. Just the run to run changes are amazing...look at the difference between 12z today and 12z yesterday for days 9-14...moderation. This doesn't bother me at all, this is what I expected to happen, not a super cold winter.Luckily , we haven't gotten the super cold shot that elusively stays 10-15 days away, so maybe the warm up that's 15 days away , won't happen, and we will get the snow that we can't get out of this pattern, then all will be right in the world!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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