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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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CaryWx

CaryWx

Posted
Posted

It's gonna be a busy week next week. I hope everyone is well medicated. :lol:  The storm that's suppressed around the 21st-23rd on the GFS has my interest as well. Is there much of any storm signal showing up on the ensembles during that timeframe?

 

My guess too.  Lots of lost sleep waiting on the 0z euro to come out on this forum and mets working serious overtime

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Upstate Tiger

Upstate Tiger

Posted
Posted

For the first time this season, KGSP, is mentioning frozen precip next weekend for the foothills and piedmont. Even though it is a mixed transition at the start, I will take it this far out:

ON WEDNESDAY...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH
H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AS COLD AS -13 C OVER AVERY COUNTY. WED LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
MTNS...TO UPPER 20S EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND NE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. USING THE SLOWER ECMWF
TIMING...LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS...INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON FORECAST
TEMPERATURES...QPF MAY BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS TO A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTH...H85 WAA SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO RA BY
MID DAY. THICK CLOUD COVER STRATIFORM RA WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 40S.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

 

For example, here's the 12z Euro (top) vs. Jan 2, 2002 (bottom)

 

 

 

 

Yeah it can definitely work out.  From the discussion the last week or so though, it seemed to me like the PV in the NE stopped up the flow (stopped the cutters too), created confluence in the NE, kept the great lake lows away and allowed ridging to create high pressures in the lakes where we want them.   With that it seems like a more conducive set up overall for a nice storm, and less of a timing thing.  Plus it looks a lot colder in that 2002 set up FWW. 

 

It seems like the theme on the EURO is to squash the energy in the STJ.  The PV in the NE would stop that as well from what I understand. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Yeah it can definitely work out.  From the discussion the last week or so though, it seemed to me like the PV in the NE stopped up the flow (stopped the cutters too), created confluence in the NE, kept the great lake lows away and allowed ridging to create high pressures in the lakes where we want them.   With that it seems like a more conducive set up overall for a nice storm, and less of a timing thing.  Plus it looks a lot colder in that 2002 set up FWW. 

 

It seems like the theme on the EURO is to squash the energy in the STJ.  The PV in the NE would stop that as well from what I understand. 

What you describe is the best way that we get good storms, just saying it's not the only way

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I don't need to zoom in to tell which one is the gefs. It continues to try and push that Aleutian low into the west coast. GFS sucks in the Pacific.

 

LOL...yep, the CMC keeps the blocking much stronger past day 9 where the EPS/GEFS rapidly drop it off.   Not sure I like that as the GEFS has been steady in keeping the blocking stronger for longer and just today started backing off very quickly after day 9.  Although I would think it would be expected for blocking to moderate some and maybe come back in Feb.  Models have been pretty good for day 7 forecasts for blocking which I hope bodes well for 17th potential as that is 8-9 days away.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
CPC's 3-4 week outlook for Jan 23-Feb 5
 
Jan_8_CPC_3_4.gif

 

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 08 2016

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 23 2016-Fri Feb 05 2016

As was the case last week, ongoing and forecast short-term climate variability are making for a challenging Week 3-4 outlook. The background ENSO state continues to heavily influence the pattern of tropical convection and, as a result, influence the circulation from the subtropics into the midlatitudes. Robust MJO activity continues as well, with the enhanced phase propagating across the Pacific Ocean into the Western Hemisphere. Weather and climate forecasts spanning the next 5 to 10 days point to the development of a strongly negative AO pattern, with a block developing over the Davis Strait. The interaction of these phenomena over the next few weeks remains highly uncertain.

Dynamical guidance is in reasonable agreement, with the ECMWF, CFS, and JMA, all depicting 500-hPa circulation patterns that appear largely ENSO driven. There are some important differences, however. The ECMWF and JMA maintain an anomalous Aleutian Low centered near (JMA) or west (ECMWF) of 150W. The CFS maintains an eastward-shifting position ending near 140W by Week-4. The latter is characteristic of mild period across most of the CONUS, while the former is teleconnected to below-normal temperatures across parts of the Southeast.

There are two key forecast uncertainties which mostly pertain to the temperature outlook. First, the evolution of the MJO is important. Should the MJO propagate into phases 2 and 3 in the Wheeler and Hendon paradigm, it could force a warmer solution for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. by the very end of the period. Also, the persistence of a strong negative AO through the remainder of the month would lead to a colder solution from parts of the Plains to the Southeast. These two points are not completely independent, so statistical guidance utilizing the MJO is valuable.

The outlook relies most strongly on the statistical guidance that captures ENSO, the current state of the MJO, and long term trends. Below-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Southeast, while above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern and western parts of the CONUS. Most of Alaska continues to favor above-normal temperatures as well.

The precipitation outlook is largely driven by the ENSO signal, and remains similar to the previous outlook. There are some minor changes to account for the latest calibrated ECMWF output.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

LOL...yep, the CMC keeps the blocking much stronger past day 9 where the EPS/GEFS rapidly drop it off. Not sure I like that as the GEFS has been steady in keeping the blocking stronger for longer and just today started backing off very quickly after day 9. Although I would think it would be expected for blocking to moderate some and maybe come back in Feb. Models have been pretty good for day 7 forecasts for blocking which I hope bodes well for 17th potential as that is 8-9 days away.

loop the eps from day ten to 15 and watch in retro.
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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

loop the eps from day ten to 15 and watch in retro.

 

Agree, I did, besides the ensembles haven't been that great so far at day 10+.  I really think we need this weekend deal to do it's thing and then see how strong it gets as that will affect everything next week.  Stronger the better, IMO...

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted

CPC's 3-4 week outlook for Jan 23-Feb 5

 They never change.lol. Even if the nino was weak or an all modoki one, they'd lump them all the same. Notice also how they don't really WANT to factor blocking in either. Folks that have maps to their outlooks/discussions from '02-3, '09-10 ought to post them.lol.

Jan_8_CPC_3_4.gif

 

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

300PM EST Fri Jan 08 2016

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 23 2016-Fri Feb 05 2016

As was the case last week, ongoing and forecast short-term climate variability are making for a challenging Week 3-4 outlook. The background ENSO state continues to heavily influence the pattern of tropical convection and, as a result, influence the circulation from the subtropics into the midlatitudes. Robust MJO activity continues as well, with the enhanced phase propagating across the Pacific Ocean into the Western Hemisphere. Weather and climate forecasts spanning the next 5 to 10 days point to the development of a strongly negative AO pattern, with a block developing over the Davis Strait. The interaction of these phenomena over the next few weeks remains highly uncertain.

Dynamical guidance is in reasonable agreement, with the ECMWF, CFS, and JMA, all depicting 500-hPa circulation patterns that appear largely ENSO driven. There are some important differences, however. The ECMWF and JMA maintain an anomalous Aleutian Low centered near (JMA) or west (ECMWF) of 150W. The CFS maintains an eastward-shifting position ending near 140W by Week-4. The latter is characteristic of mild period across most of the CONUS, while the former is teleconnected to below-normal temperatures across parts of the Southeast.

There are two key forecast uncertainties which mostly pertain to the temperature outlook. First, the evolution of the MJO is important. Should the MJO propagate into phases 2 and 3 in the Wheeler and Hendon paradigm, it could force a warmer solution for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. by the very end of the period. Also, the persistence of a strong negative AO through the remainder of the month would lead to a colder solution from parts of the Plains to the Southeast. These two points are not completely independent, so statistical guidance utilizing the MJO is valuable.

The outlook relies most strongly on the statistical guidance that captures ENSO, the current state of the MJO, and long term trends. Below-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Southeast, while above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern and western parts of the CONUS. Most of Alaska continues to favor above-normal temperatures as well.

The precipitation outlook is largely driven by the ENSO signal, and remains similar to the previous outlook. There are some minor changes to account for the latest calibrated ECMWF output.

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

Not liking that precip map for Jan 23-Feb 5. Looks good for you guys on the east coast though.

 

 

The precip "probability map" should not bother you in your location or mine. First of all, it is showing what the probability is of precipitation being above or below normal. This map would indicate a southern or suppressed storm track which potentially would put you and me on the north side of the storm track. Couple that with colder than normal temps and I am not sure I would rather be anywhere else given this scenario.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

18z may not cut it. We need those highs to float down faster. 

Won't be anything like the 12z....that's the problem with these OP runs, they can't figure out how strong the high will be, the placement of the high, how strong the low to the east will be or the placement of the low, or the s/w placement or strength. and this is all at 174hrs. The models won't come close to nailing a solution for a while.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Won't be anything like the 12z....that's the problem with these OP runs, they can't figure out how strong the high will be, the placement of the high, how strong the low to the east will be or the placement of the low, or the s/w placement or strength. and this is all at 174hrs. The models won't come close to nailing a solution for a while.

 

Yea even so it's still a pretty good look this far out. Of course I'll be out of town dangit. 

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