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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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it does on this run. The PV lobe is too strong and shears it out @216.

Best case is that the lobe is not there at all. About 5 days out, all models show the PV stretching in attempt to split, some do and some reabsorb it and never fully splits.

yesterdays 12z run phased with it and ran it up to the lakes. The overnight ensembles showed us the suppressed solution was a viable option. Hopefully today's eps has the vortex farther north.
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This is a roulette wheel folks.  The Ops models are really catching onto the storms it seems.  Now it is just a matter of where the ball falls into who's backyard when the spinning slows to a stop.  Better than no ball on the table at all.

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a great snowstorm here in West Georgia. About 4".

That one was a hard one to swallow for me.  It snowed all day without sticking due to rates while just a few miles south it was piling up.  Finally, after I had given up and went to bed a little lobe broke off and laid down 1.5" at my house in an hour.  I drove down to the city the next day and was amazed at how much more they had.

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That one was a hard one to swallow for me. It snowed all day without sticking due to rates while just a few miles south it was piling up. Finally, after I had given up and went to bed a little lobe broke off and laid down 1.5" at my house in an hour. I drove down to the city the next day and was amazed at how much more they had.

our heaviest snow in that storm came at the tail end the next morning around 6 or 7am. Very heavy snow for about an hour or so.
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Big snow in C NC...good snow SW of there down to Atlanta and vicinity

 

Does anyone know what has happened to the Raleigh NWS page with case studies and accumulation map?...I can't find it now

 

One of my personally, favorite notable winter storms I got around 5-6 inches. I don't have to preach to the choir about how rare it is to get a half footer around here, the next time I saw that much snow wasn't until January 2011. I would love it if we got the opportunity to produce a redux of January 2002 (or January 2011 for that matter). :snowing:

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Per JB,

At 168, IMO the Euro is making the same kind of error it made last weekend when it got sucked into holding cold air in the west. This time, it is too slow in the southern branch at 168 hours
 
By having it back so far, it cant phase enough. What could happen in the coming days is that trends faster and all of a sudden what is now a storm heading out to sea is one that is coming up the coast, or even worse
one things for sure alot of cold air is getting into the pattern
But just like yesterday it was cutting it up, today it finds a different idea. Certainly both are possible, the middle
Please remember those upset at this weekend, its because its phasing to far west. not getting shunted out. Remember what this looked like 7-10 days ago
Cold is getting on the field now and the jet is alive. Should be go time soon
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One of my personally, favorite notable winter storms I got around 5-6 inches. I don't have to preach to the choir about how rare it is to get a half footer around here, the next time I saw that much snow wasn't until January 2011. I would love it if we got the opportunity to produce a redux of January 2002 (or January 2011 for that matter). :snowing:

Atlanta hasnt had a 6" snowstorm in 33 years !!
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Per JB,

At 168, IMO the Euro is making the same kind of error it made last weekend when it got sucked into holding cold air in the west. This time, it is too slow in the southern branch at 168 hours
 
By having it back so far, it cant phase enough. What could happen in the coming days is that trends faster and all of a sudden what is now a storm heading out to sea is one that is coming up the coast, or even worse
one things for sure alot of cold air is getting into the pattern
But just like yesterday it was cutting it up, today it finds a different idea. Certainly both are possible, the middle
Please remember those upset at this weekend, its because its phasing to far west. not getting shunted out. Remember what this looked like 7-10 days ago
Cold is getting on the field now and the jet is alive. Should be go time soon

 

 

It's gonna be a busy week next week. I hope everyone is well medicated. :lol:  The storm that's suppressed around the 21st-23rd on the GFS has my interest as well. Is there much of any storm signal showing up on the ensembles during that timeframe?

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