packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just about to say that, Grit. Strong blocking usually remains longer than forecast. Interesting...it's still negative, but probably just see saws like you posted after day 10. Still a great look on the GEFS, another legit threat on Jan 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Does that continue north after that frame? It does a little too offshore to hit DC but that's 240+ hrs out. Regardless, it's a killer setup for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Does that continue north after that frame? It's a GFS 252hr plot, I don't think that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z GFS parallel.. here is the setup at 216 hrs. This is exactly what you want to see for a major snowstorm. 50/50 low over SE Canada lifting to allow HP to nose in, higher hts over western/central Canada with high pressure all over top, and a stout STJ wave that has dug deep into TX/Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Highest I've seen it for greater than 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It's a GFS 252hr plot, I don't think that matters. my bad. I was drooling over the image and didn't look at timestamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big change from the 6z GEFS. Lot more agreement on a storm between Jan 17-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big change from the 6z GEFS. Lot more agreement on a storm between Jan 17-20 how does the gefs look for weds clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Correction on the GFS-parallel I was posting.. that was the 6z run. Regardless, it's an awesome setup. Hopefully it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 my bad. I was drooling over the image and didn't look at timestamp Yeah, real low probability at this point, but if it were to materialize it's Katie bar the door in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 At 135 on Euro....SE Canada area looks similar to 00z. The wave coming into California is more impressive looking and farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It does a little too offshore to hit DC but that's 240+ hrs out. Regardless, it's a killer setup for all. Most of our best storms ( for central and eastern NC anyways) dont go up the coast usually.....usually if DC is in the game I am out of it The OP run was awesome for us in the east but obviously not going to happen...actually I would love to see that trend 50 miles west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 how does the gefs look for weds clipper? The Euro says the mountains shred it. Doesn't have any wintry precip East of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The Euro says the mountains shred it. Doesn't have any wintry precip East of the mountains.I just need the clipper to bring the cold air for the weekend bomb ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 The key here is to maintain a +PNA ridge and linking up with the west NAO block to build a large HP over central Canada and sends it south. Cold air is now in place... that's a huge step toward a big storm. Last step is to keep the STJ wave strong enough.. it's a strong El Nino year - not worried about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The Euro says the mountains shred it. Doesn't have any wintry precip East of the mountains. Not the case, the mountains don't "shred" it the energy is just too far north for NC. If it digs more due to a sharper PNA ridge then it could bring some light snow into NC. Something to watch in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 The key here is to maintain a +PNA ridge and linking up with the west NAO block to build a large HP over central Canada and sends it south. Cold air is now in place... that's a huge step toward a big storm. Last step is to keep the STJ wave strong enough.. it's a strong El Nino year - not worried about that one. BTW, the Euro out to 144 hrs is doing just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro keeps going with a 2 pronged event next weekend. Weak storm on Fri is warm. 2nd wave is in Northern Mexico, farther south this run...but it may get squashed (out to 180) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Cross polar block...my goodness, this is going to put big chunk in the freezer. If it's right.One of the best looks we have seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 At 192, cold air moving in behind the Fri system. Gulf low forming with a PV lobe dropping through the C US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Squashed but still a great setup Need to adjust the timing of the energy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 At 192, cold air moving in behind the Fri system. Gulf low forming with a PV lobe dropping through the C US That PV lobe is the wild card. Trying to pop a gulf low.. may be a bit too strong to go neutral tilt but boy is it cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 At 192, cold air moving in behind the Fri system. Gulf low forming with a PV lobe dropping through the C USit's not gonna cut but it might get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 it's not gonna cut but it might get squashed. it does on this run. The PV lobe is too strong and shears it out @216. Best case is that the lobe is not there at all. About 5 days out, all models show the PV stretching in attempt to split, some do and some reabsorb it and never fully splits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah, it ends up squashed. This will be one of those catch phrase things, but it looks a lot like Pack's fav storm Jan 2, 2002 with the PV dropping down through C US with gulf low....that one's been on the CPC analog lists....along with late Jan 1966, a great period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah, it ends up squashed. This will be one of those catch phrase things, but it looks a lot like Pack's fav storm Jan 2, 2002 with the PV dropping down through C US with gulf low....that one's been on the CPC analog lists....along with late Jan 1966, a great period. LOL...drops PV deep into US. A little different than the GFS/GEFS/CMC-ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would feel better if the Euro and GFS runs were reversed. How often has the GFS led the way and the Euro followed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would feel better if the Euro and GFS runs were reversed. How often has the GFS led the way and the Euro followed? We assume this is rhetorical.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would feel better if the Euro and GFS runs were reversed. How often has the GFS led the way and the Euro followed? Do you really think it matters, Eddie? It's 200 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yesterday it was cutters today it's suppression. This is why you don't put too much faith in op models past day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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