griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 After the storm next weekend, the entire height field just drops south across North America....beautiful look, cold and active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Need the PNA ridge just a little taller with less energy coming into it to crash it down. Maybe we get lucky and get that. Yeah it's very close and CMC dropped .05 to .08 across the area as light snow with it last night, verbatim a dusting to an inch. Once we get inside 84 hours I expect this one to trend a little further south with the clipper and stronger with the PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll bet this signal gets stronger after the weekend we just need more models to get on board to take this one run seriously... But it shows the potential for sure. Canadian has a nice low popping bit temps are way off the mark. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Bigest improvement was getting rid of that double gyro over last nights run and instead we had one gyro for our 50/50 low. This allowed HP to build in underneath and deliver the cold. IMO this thing will trend better in future runs as we get closer for deeper south as oppossed to MA per say because of the blocking keeping the southern vorts suppressed. And there are no shortage of vorts coming in the southern stream. That double looking gyro on the 0z gfs is what gets refered to as a GL Low. Need our 50/50 to stay consolidated like todays 12z run or it want matter for any of us down south cause our cold air tap will get screwed. I'm pretty pumped with the signs we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z GFS was a PGV special....CMC is nothing like the GFS and I would suspect the Euro won't be either, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Lots of potential from the 15th onward. Lows keep coming from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z GFS was a PGV special....CMC is nothing like the GFS and I would suspect the Euro won't be either, LOL. Eastern NC deserves it. They definitely cash in with a block this strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is what it takes...will know in about 5 mins if ensembles agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is what it takes...will know in about 5 mins if ensembles agree. It agrees. It's a southern slider look. Better 50/50 low trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It agrees. It's a southern slider look. Better 50/50 low trends Yep it sure does...hmmmm. Let's see what the almighty euro thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm on board, maybe we can squeeze in a nuisance type event next Wednesday before the table is set for next weekend. I go on call Friday and am already exploring contigencies in the event a chase caliber event materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 ^Well, look who's back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I was living in New Bern in March '80 and December '89.... The coastal area is a special place to be during big snows. I'm rooting for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm on board, maybe we can squeeze in a nuisance type event next Wednesday before the table is set for next weekend. I go on call Friday and am already exploring contigencies in the event a chase caliber event materializes. GFS brings them out of the wood work! lol What's up man, where you been hiding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still early and remember it will trend some NW, how much with that block is the question. (plus it IS the GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEFS says hello to w-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still early and remember it will trend some NW, how much with that block is the question. (plus it IS the GFS) Bigger impression on me is the overall pattern look going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEFS says hello to w-NAO.Hard to not salivate at that. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GEFS says hello to w-NAO. Now THAT is a gorgeous look. The low height anomalies over the Canadian Maritimes is what I've been waiting to see in this blocking pattern (rather than centered over the Canadian Plains which favors the pesky Great Lakes lows and cutting). Edit: granted it's still 7 days out so too early to get wrapped up in any specific storm threat but these are good pattern trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Cross polar block...my goodness, this is going to put big chunk in the freezer. If it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Am I reading the GEFS right that the PV lobe is now in a much better location in the NE; acting as the 50/50 low (trending anyway)? Just want to make sure I'm following what's "good" with what's shown. I've got the blocking down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Big changes is the understatement, still a ways to go as we haven't had any run to run continuity. But you can see on 12z GEFS HP leaking over the lakes and the 0z had none of that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I think the odds of a SE snow event or events are quite good coming up in the 8-12 day period, difficult to say if we get much down this way, but seems pretty certain there will be at least some of the white stuff farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Am I reading the GEFS right that the PV lobe is now in a much better location in the NE; acting as the 50/50 low (trending anyway)? Just want to make sure I'm following what's "good" with what's shown. I've got the blocking down.... Don't want to see the PV split with a piece floating over central Canada. That blocks out our HP. Needs to stay as one PV over SE Canada with rising heights over central Canada to build high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 First real run of the GEFS where it steadily weakens blocking after day 10...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z OP GFS weakens that STJ wave too much but the GFS-parallel does not. And... This is a full bore Miller A storm that forms deep in the GOM. This will put down big totals well into the deep south and up the piedmont region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z OP GFS weakens that STJ wave too much but the GFS-parallel does not. And... I kinda want to ask that frame out on a date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Just about to say that, Grit. Strong blocking usually remains longer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z OP GFS weakens that STJ wave too much but the GFS-parallel does not. And... This is a full bore Miller A storm that forms deep in the GOM. This will put down big totals well into the deep south and up the piedmont region. Does that continue north after that frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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