NWNC2015 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Pcroton from WU 12:54 AM GMT on January 08, 2016 High long retrograded far south and west well away from prime location. So this doesn't make much sense here to get all that excited yet about it. Kind of tired of "pattern fits" stuff anyways. How well has THAT worked since October when it was declared "Winter Pattern Setting Up" ? Eh... 5-6 days before you should care about this silly thing. Also beware these TT maps. Those colors are the anomaly NOT the actual physical High/Low CENTERS!!!! That's important to understand. People see red blob and think THATS the high. It's not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 A little wintry mix breaking out in WNC overnight Jan15th into the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 No HP to keep the cold... quickly goes to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 A little wintry mix breaking out in WNC overnight Jan15th into the 16th Cuts up toward Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Unless something drastically changes this isn't a southern snow event. This is probably a 35-37N event. I haven't been very gung ho on places south of 35N until 1/20-1/25 or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Cuts up toward Ohio Valley. That's what I was expecting. Well, so much for the "blocking". Just proves that we cannot get away from storms cutting and the NW trend no matter what weather pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I like it. A quick hitting few inches wouldn't be impossible...need the system to keep speeding up and it's possible the models are scurrying the cold out too fast because we are in the deep freezer before this system. I mean single digit temps in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's what I was expecting. Well, so much for the "blocking". Just proves that we cannot get away from storms cutting and the NW trend no matter what weather pattern we are in. The blocking isn't really established well yet and the pattern is still sort of settling in which is why it's not a favorable setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That's what I was expecting. Well, so much for the "blocking". Just proves that we cannot get away from storms cutting and the NW trend no matter what weather pattern we are in. Pcroton from WU shortly after the 18z solution: People talking about blocking because they post a frozen frame map showing a high between Greenland and Quebec. Problem is in order to be a block it kinda has to STAY there so the upper low STAYS to the west and you get the block. Other problem is it's kind of too far north to support that coastal 240hr snowzilla storm on the same model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Pcroton from WU on the 0z GFS: Then there's the late period storm. What's the difference between this run, the 18z run, the prev 12z run, and the future 6z run? Absolutely nothing they are all entirely the same. They bring disturbances into the east within a known window of opportunity and try to interact and develop a solution. That's all you care about for this run and probably the next TWENTY RUNS. No one run "gets it" over the previous since none of these are sampling real world real time disturbances. We need to get the incoming storm system through the region to even BOTHER with this. And inbetween is the Jan 13th system too - whose evolution into Canada - sets the table for this storm. If the models have the Jan 11th system off a little as how it goes into Canada, then they will have the 13th system off by a decent amount. Then the 17th will be WAY WAY off. You spiral rapidly out of control with compounding errors. No reason at all to assume the next two storms go perfect so that the third storm (jan 17) will go exactly as shown. It's pure folly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Canadian drops light snow across northern Al, GA and a good portion of NC hours 126-132. This is with that clipper for the 12-13th and with frigid temps aloft we could probably squeeze out an inch from this, verbatim. The snow falls after dark too which would maximize any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Another good interesting read: Pcroton: 6:36 PM GMT on January 07, 2016 Vortex looks like it will finally split in late January. Well beyond any truly "winter impactful" date. Also of high note is how and where it's splitting with the primary vortex over the Siberian Arctic and the other weaker piece well in the northern Latitudes of North America. It's simply nothing like what we've seen in previous years where that secondary split piece was the STRONGER of the two and pressed into SOUTHERN Ontario/Quebec. This year the stronger piece is over Siberia and the weaker piece is well north over Ellesmere Island/N Greenland. No where near us. Don't put much stock into the reach towards us - this isn't akin to a 500mb or 850mb layer being overhead. Very different process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro has a sweet looking setup for the 17-18th system.. Run not finished yet only out to 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro woof woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro was CLOSE to something nice but not quite. Stills shows some light overrunning precip across the south at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Euro was CLOSE to something nice but not quite. Stills shows some light overrunning precip across the south at 240.When will it ever not be 10 days away?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Pcroton from WU shortly after the 18z solution: People talking about blocking because they post a frozen frame map showing a high between Greenland and Quebec. Problem is in order to be a block it kinda has to STAY there so the upper low STAYS to the west and you get the block. Other problem is it's kind of too far north to support that coastal 240hr snowzilla storm on the same model run. Look at the means...it does stay there. Positive heights are over greenland throughout the run, as you can see from the teleconnections the -NAO stays. Don't agree with this poster. You can see the 50-50 low (green) on the image here, with the 1/17 storm forming in the Gulf, classic east coast snowstorm...models should continue to build in highs/cold air and possibly squash the lows around the great lakes. You can see this on the 00z vs 06z GFS...system is substantially more south at 00z 1/17, I expect to see additionaly changes in the days to come (we're 9 days away, tons tons tons of time to get the cold air we need for this system to work out...the ingredients are there for this to be a big one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 ^^Just looked at the 6z GFS and all I can say is there's a lot of potential. Verbatim it would be some misses and some hits but as Jon said above there's going to be some changes to this look. So I think I'm excited about the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking at the latest model runs and observing the latest trends, I think we are blanked (Wake County, NC) through at least the last week of January. Sure, there is always the potential for something to pop up or we get a good "surprise", but my meteorological instincts are not feeling it. I remember there was a time in the early 2000s where we went 2-3 years with absolutely no snow. Nothing says we "have" to have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I agree with Jon, the potential is there, just need to see how it plays out in the coming week to two weeks. My guess is we finally reel in a period of interest from the fantasy world of day 10+. Speaking of fantasy, western NC, western SC and northern GA folks would have liked the Euro Control run from 0z. Snow map was pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I agree with Jon, the potential is there, just need to see how it plays out in the coming week to two weeks. My guess is we finally reel in a period of interest from the fantasy world of day 10+. Speaking of fantasy, western NC, western SC and northern GA folks would have liked the Euro Control run from 0z. Snow map was pretty. the Para op was an ok run too. Hopefully we can keep this as one low passing to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looking at the latest model runs and observing the latest trends, I think we are blanked (Wake County, NC) through at least the last week of January. Sure, there is always the potential for something to pop up or we get a good "surprise", but my meteorological instincts are not feeling it. I remember there was a time in the early 2000s where we went 2-3 years with absolutely no snow. Nothing says we "have" to have snow. I think the models are clueless right now; The LR depictions are laughable. I'm going to do my best to pull back to just five days out. So today I'll be focusing on the potential clipper next week. With that a dusting to 1" would be considered a win.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So.... We are still ten days away from where we want to be. That will be the story of this winter. All of the comments how the models are clueless and if we got that setup the model depiction is wrong are really bad. It's a computer program. I think the models have a better grasp on what the weather will be like than a wish casting weenie. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 With respects to the storm potential around day 10, let's examine what we know. There is a strong signal for a southern stream system and a strong signal for a bonifide -NAO. That screams snow for at least portions of the SE. I'm personally optimistic for that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 With respects to the storm potential around day 10, let's examine what we know. There is a strong signal for a southern stream system and a strong signal for a bonifide -NAO. That screams snow for at least portions of the SE. I'm personally optimistic for that time frame. What we know is people want to take the pattern depiction verbatim but they want to throw out the surface depiction. It seems pretty silly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So.... We are still ten days away from where we want to be. That will be the story of this winter. All of the comments how the models are clueless and if we got that setup the model depiction is wrong are really bad. It's a computer program. I think the models have a better grasp on what the weather will be like than a wish casting weenie. JMO. If you feel that way, I think that's where some of you miss the boat to begin with. Models were never intended to be a weather forecast verbatim but a tool to help forecast the weather. I can't believe that people still latch onto every model run, whether it's positive or negative. If you latch on to just the negative, I guess people can't call you a "weenie" so I guess that's your game on here? Whoop dee doo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The day 10 system is a convoluted mess on the GFS and the GGEM. Split Lows are always a mess. Ugh. I hope this thing gets it's act together as one nice SE system with a favorable track. The problem is the cold air still looks marginal outside of the mountains. Hopefully the cold air will be able to filter in before the storm system arrives. This is assuming their will actually be a storm here in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 What we know is people want to take the pattern depiction verbatim but they want to throw out the surface depiction. It seems pretty silly to me. Models have more skill at depicting a general pattern at long leads than they do in depicting specifics at the surface at such long leads. So it's not silly at all to be optimistic at this time. Without question the day 8-10 time frame provides the most potential thus far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 If you feel that way, I think that's where some of you miss the boat to begin with. Models were never intended to be a weather forecast verbatim but a tool to help forecast the weather. I can't believe that people still latch onto every model run, whether it's positive or negative. If you latch on to just the negative, I guess people can't call you a "weenie" so I guess that's your game on here? Whoop dee doo. There is a big segment of amwx posters who toss models that don't show what they want so they come up with excuses and reasons that the model is wrong. Most of those reasons and excuses are not based in science or reality. That is a weenie and there are plenty around. I guess it amazes me that someone can latch on to a setup but say oh no the model depiction of the surface is not right but the upper levels are. Or say it's the 18z toss it unless it shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Models have more skill at depicting a general pattern at long leads than they do in depicting specifics at the surface at such long leads. So it's not silly at all to be optimistic at this time. Without question the day 8-10 time frame provides the most potential thus far this season. We've been ten days away for about a week now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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