SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The NAM is always NW and amped at 84 hours, you'd want to see it worlds more amped than the GFS/Euro for it to have any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The NAM is always NW and amped at 84 hours, you'd want to see it worlds more amped than the GFS/Euro for it to have any significance. The NAM at 84 hours is a fool me once shame on me, fool me 12,000 times it could be a big snow storm type of analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 LOL...like this? Same old same old, storm cuts, we warm, we cool down for a couple of days after and then rinse/lather/repeat. That warmup lasts through the 19th and then we cool down some....bask in the warmth, rain, cold, warmth, rain, cold...LOL Day 11+ could give us a chance... Be nice to live in the TX panhandle this year. I'll bet they're setting all kinds of snowfall records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 ^^ I know guys. Just trying to see any hint of the pattern changing for our favor. Just nothing there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Be nice to live in the TX panhandle this year. I'll bet they're setting all kinds of snowfall records. I lived in OK for awhile in the mid 2000s and they had some much snowier winters than this. 04-05 I think may have been one of their snowiest winters on record, 08-09 was very snowy too there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Be nice to live in the TX panhandle this year. I'll bet they're setting all kinds of snowfall records. LOL...anywhere but here would be nice to live if you like snow. This is an awesome setup, just has to bloody verify now. Ian had a nice tweet a little bit ago about upcoming pattern, which I agree with. Helluva lot better than the 6-10 day pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Voice of reason... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47560-my-jan-7-outlook-article-for-cwg/#entry3836126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Voice of reason... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47560-my-jan-7-outlook-article-for-cwg/#entry3836126 I Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Great pattern is still there till the end of both the Canadian and euro ensembles. Continue to toss the gfs and GEFS they're really struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I lived in OK for awhile in the mid 2000s and they had some much snowier winters than this. 04-05 I think may have been one of their snowiest winters on record, 08-09 was very snowy too there. What's the average snowfall around that area, roughly (if you know)? We talking 12-15"? Something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Great pattern is still there till the end of both the Canadian and euro ensembles. Continue to toss the gfs and GEFS they're really struggling. I haven't looked to hard at the GEFS today but the 16 day members say it's predominately cold...not bad. Considering next 10 days are probably neutral. I thought it would take a while to start seeing snow in the east but not this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 18z GFS Jan 17 storm! Then setting up BIG southern storm following that with very cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 CR and Pack/NCdrizzle - Good posts today. I agree with you guys on the upcoming pattern...I'm still on the bandwagon for 1/17, hell I think I'm driving the wagon. 46-day EPS Parallel had the same look during the same time period. I'm loving the block that supports SE snowstorms (baffin bay to labrador sea block) not to mention full on greenland block. Additionally the fact that MJO heads to phase 8 during this time period doesn't hurt, either...as displayed by Webber's MJO bar graph for NC Snowstorms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What an epic 50/50 low on the 18z GFS. If that's legit there would probably be a better CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 18z GFS Jan 17 storm! Then setting up BIG southern storm following that with very cold air in place. Holy bat flaps... that'd be a fun home playoff game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 What an epic 50/50 low on the 18z GFS. If that's legit there would probably be a better CAD setup. Yes, SOLID 50/50 in place and -NAO, HP is staying put over the NE with an upper level like that. That's a classic east coast storm there. From N GA up the seaboard. This run has a dbl barrel sfc low over the SE which scours the cold, but my my what a set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What's the average snowfall around that area, roughly (if you know)? We talking 12-15"? Something like that? Amarillo averages around 20-25 I think. The north panhandle is like 30-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yes, SOLID 50/50 in place and -NAO, HP is staying put over the NE with an upper level like that. That's a classic east coast storm there. From N GA up the seaboard. This run has a dbl barrel sfc low over the SE which scours the cold, but my my what a set up. nothing like a 988mb low over Columbia and Huntsville at the same time. We toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 nothing like a 988mb low over Columbia and Huntsville at the same time. We toss! Toss the run, but not the overall setup. It's a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Mother of God what a storm on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Toss the run, but not the overall setup. It's a thing of beauty.the biggest thing I noticed is the euro ensembles are much faster bringing that wave into the southeast. Not sure why the gfs is so slow bringing it east, it's usually too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Fairly big changes through day 7 on the GEFS, shifts the pv low east and building strong west coast ridging, stout w-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 the biggest thing I noticed is the euro ensembles are much faster bringing that wave into the southeast. Not sure why the gfs is so slow bringing it east, it's usually too fast. Yes, they do seem to have their biases reversed..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lots of talk and no pics. It's like talking about porn. I want to see it. Where are the goods for this massive storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 EPS-Para is a bomb very similar to GFS. Hit piedmont and western NC hard and up through MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lots of talk and no pics. It's like talking about porn. I want to see it. Where are the goods for this massive storm? models are free you know...Trying to be polite but maybe you should look at the run yourself? No sense posting 18z GFS day 10+ clown maps really, the signal has been there on the ensembles for days. It's always the operational that gets people excited for some reason...must see snow in order for there to be hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Fairly big changes through day 7 on the GEFS, shifts the pv low east and building strong west coast ridging, stout w-NAO.gfs and it's ensembles continue to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lots of talk and no pics. It's like talking about porn. I want to see it. Where are the goods for this massive storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 18z GFS ensembles definitely more agreed on something over the SE on Jan 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 here is the 18Z GFS and its convoluted mess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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