Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what I was alluding to earlier! This is not far from a big SE winter storm. No cutter on this map. Miller B, possibly. Look at the Greenland block. Look at the PV acting as a 50/50 low, locking confluence over the NE. Only fly in the ointment is the Lakes Low. It may or may not be there at game time, but this map is a much, much better map than the one I posted earlier and is VERY close to what we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think deltadog thinks differently about it cutting. Euro shows temperatures aren't that cold during that timeframe to begin with so it probably doesn't matter whether it cuts or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what I was alluding to earlier! This is not far from a big SE winter storm. No cutter on this map. Miller B, possibly. Look at the Greenland block. Look at the PV acting as a 50/50 low, locking confluence over the NE. Only fly in the ointment is the Lakes Low. It may or may not be there at game time, but this map is a much, much better map than the one I posted earlier and is VERY close to what we're looking for. That has been a constant over the past 3 years. It has ruined a many snowstorms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what I was alluding to earlier! This is not far from a big SE winter storm. No cutter on this map. Miller B, possibly. Look at the Greenland block. Look at the PV acting as a 50/50 low, locking confluence over the NE. Only fly in the ointment is the Lakes Low. It may or may not be there at game time, but this map is a much, much better map than the one I posted earlier and is VERY close to what we're looking for. f216.jpg Yes this whole cutting idea is s joke with that block Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro shows temperatures aren't that cold during that timeframe to begin with so it probably doesn't matter whether it cuts or not. There is plenty of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yes this whole cutting idea is s joke with that block Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I agree with that but temps will be another fly I guess because of the GLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The Lakes low may or may not be there. Can't worry about it or surface temps yet. That general setup has yielded many winter storms in the SE through the years. We gotta be happy with the general players in those positions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just for the sake of discussion then, looking at this map on the GFS, we have what seems to be a very stout west based -NAO and a finely placed 50/50 low which as mentioned, should create nice confluence in the east, thus making it cold in the east. My question is why does the temp anomaly map for this time period show warm up and down the east coast? The GFS does show a broad but weak ridge off the SE coast and momentarily loses the 50/50 low, so that may have something to do with it. 850mb temps look warm but the surface did not, however I just did a quick glance. With such a strong block in place I would say the GFS could very well be off its rocker allowing for that much of a warmup. Although all models will struggle in a Nino winter the GFS will struggle the most as it tends to favor northern stream waves and I dont have to tell you how bad it is with blocking patterns ala Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I agree with that but temps will be another fly I guess because of the GLL The GLL get overplayed every year. Are we really to believe a day 9/10 setup?? I don't but I do think everything is there to come together . Just gonna have to wait it out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The GLL get overplayed every year. Are we really to believe a day 9/10 setup?? I don't but I do think everything is there to come together . Just gonna have to wait it out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk guys in the NY forum mentioned this potential...if you look at the 500mb for the 17th its impressive...the block is almost too strong..go figure..but cutting seems not likely if that holds...which it won't meaning it won't look exactly like that 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Solid warmth next few days...still same story, cold west and warm east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what I was alluding to earlier! This is not far from a big SE winter storm. No cutter on this map. Miller B, possibly. Look at the Greenland block. Look at the PV acting as a 50/50 low, locking confluence over the NE. Only fly in the ointment is the Lakes Low. It may or may not be there at game time, but this map is a much, much better map than the one I posted earlier and is VERY close to what we're looking for. f216.jpg All of the best players are on the field with the upper level setup. Just waiting for the surface to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 After the inland runner on the 17th the EPS sets up a nice 50/50, post Jan 20th should deliver...it's a can't miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 All of the best players are on the field with the upper level setup. Just waiting for the surface to catch up. Yes indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 One of the 12z GEFS members. The day we buried the South... in snow. BTW, that's a max of 30-35" over TX/AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Maybe we can get some more flurry action next week. Right now that's about all we can hope for: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOMEESTABLISHED OVER THE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY TO MIDNEXT WEEK... WITH GENERALLY DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.ONE SIGNIFICANT S/W IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE L/W PATTERNNEXT WEEK... POSSIBLY YIELDING SOME LIGHT PRECIP(FLURRIES/SPRINKLES) IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.HOWEVER... WE ARE TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA5 TO 6 DAYS FROM NOW. THUS... PLAN TO STICK TO THE OVERALL MODELCONSENSUS WHICH IS BACKED UP BY A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGEENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THIS YIELDS HIGHGENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO MAYBE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Eps Saturday the 16th Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what I was alluding to earlier! This is not far from a big SE winter storm. No cutter on this map. Miller B, possibly. Look at the Greenland block. Look at the PV acting as a 50/50 low, locking confluence over the NE. Only fly in the ointment is the Lakes Low. It may or may not be there at game time, but this map is a much, much better map than the one I posted earlier and is VERY close to what we're looking for. f216.jpg Thanks CR/UNCC! Not sure why the 850s are in n. virginia though. I just need to go to school....and until then just understand that it ain't gonna snow for a while!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 One of the 12z GEFS members. The day we buried the South... in snow. BTW, that's a max of 30-35" over TX/AR All our best snows start/come from TX, so that looks like $$$$! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 After the inland runner on the 17th the EPS sets up a nice 50/50, post Jan 20th should deliver...it's a can't miss.the eps has an inland runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Solid warmth next few days...still same story, cold west and warm east. Lol! I'm pretty sure everyone knew that it was going to be warm til Monday or Tuesday ! No big shocker there! Now if you show that next Thursday or Friday, for the 3 or 4 days after, then it's cliff time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Eps Saturday the 16th Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk definitely a better look on the ensembles they are faster with that wave than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Eps Saturday the 16th Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That looks promising. Unfortunately, it also shows that pesky GLL that messes up our cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 One of the 12z GEFS members. The day we buried the South... in snow. BTW, that's a max of 30-35" over TX/AR Even Cold Rain almost got some snow on that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 If and when the models come around to showing a huge HP swinging down as the block retrogrades over Canada, then maps like the one I posted before will be more commonplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Anybody look at the NAM? Hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Not sure if this would translate to anything, but many have stated we would not see something coming until a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Anybody look at the NAM? Hour 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160107+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Not sure if this would translate to anything, but many have stated we would not see something coming until a few days out. That's the Same energy that the GFS and EURO crush Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That's the Same energy that the GFS and EURO crush Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk But it is stronger and if you loop the simulated radar it seems to be increasing. **Not saying it has much hope, and this could be wish-casting but something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 But it is stronger and if you loop the simulated radar it seems to be increasing. **Not saying it has much hope, and this could be wish-casting but something to track.Doesn't the nam have a tendency to over amplify storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lol! I'm pretty sure everyone knew that it was going to be warm til Monday or Tuesday ! No big shocker there! Now if you show that next Thursday or Friday, for the 3 or 4 days after, then it's cliff time! LOL...like this? Same old same old, storm cuts, we warm, we cool down for a couple of days after and then rinse/lather/repeat. That warmup lasts through the 19th and then we cool down some....bask in the warmth, rain, cold, warmth, rain, cold...LOL Day 11+ could give us a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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