January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[SnowNiner]

Admit I'm bummed at this point.  Last week we talked about a good set up in the long range, but still not even any fantasy snow on the models on Monday.  Thought we'd have some fantasy blips by now.

 

Not sure I know what else we need but I do notice those Great Lake lows keep popping up and they're never good for us.  Not sure why.

[Jon]

Well we haven't had one to even consider yet, so

exactly...pattern there for a storm, sure. But I haven't actually seen a southern threat on the models yet. Big difference. 

[packbacker]

Look at that block on the GEFS....impressive.  Obviously it's struggling with the pac, I would guess, or maybe not.  

 

 

[griteater]

Look at that block on the GEFS....impressive.  Obviously it's struggling with the pac, I would guess, or maybe not.  

Thereafter, it's a wet, suppressed storm track from the gulf to off Florida.  I'd prefer to see the 0 deg extend from New Orleans to Jacksonville, lol, but overall I'll take.

[mackerel_sky]

Well we haven't had one to even consider yet, so

People have considered the 11th storm a possibility, when it didnt work out, the 15/16 th timeframe was talked about, so , next! The 20-31 will be rockin

[packbacker]

If we can get the GEFS blocking with how the EPS is handling the pac we would be in business.  The blocking is nuts...and as you see from my post above the GEFS hasn't been handling the pac well thus throwing off where troughing will be but has been handling the blocking OK.  Let's see what the EPS but this has to be off the charts blocking.

 

 

 

 

[SnowNiner]

Look at that block on the GEFS....impressive.  Obviously it's struggling with the pac, I would guess, or maybe not.e get a awesome -AO and -NAO, with a neutral PNA, making a nice cool/cold rain? 

 

So we get a GREAT -AO/-NAO, a positive/neutral PNA which gives us nice set up for some zonal but cool, cool, rains.  Nice!

[Brick Tamland]

Admit I'm bummed at this point.  Last week we talked about a good set up in the long range, but still not even any fantasy snow on the models on Monday.  Thought we'd have some fantasy blips by now.

 

Not sure I know what else we need but I do notice those Great Lake lows keep popping up and they're never good for us.  Not sure why.

 

I admit I am a bit discouraged, too. I guess we have to give the good pattern more time to settle in. Folks keep saying the setup is great, and we might not see anything on the models until 4 or 5 days out since there is so much going on with the pattern. If we don't see anything on the models by the end of this week, though, we might have to look further down the road to the week of the 17th.

[Cold Rain]

So we get a GREAT -AO/-NAO, a positive/neutral PNA which gives us nice set up for some zonal but cool, cool, rains.  Nice!

 

Yes we do...on the 300+ hour GFS.  We also usually get a lot of snowstorms on the 300+ hour GFS that hardly ever come to fruition.

[packbacker]

So we get a GREAT -AO/-NAO, a positive/neutral PNA which gives us nice set up for some zonal but cool, cool, rains.  Nice!

 

LOL...yep, GEFS just went all 98 on us.  If EPS agrees I would be shocked.  

 

It would be funny if we went 98 redux rest of winter, would be almost worth it to watch people squirm.   Like I said, I would take another 98 if we got 2-3" of snow in mid/end of Jan.

[Cold Rain]

Why is it necessary to see a fantasy long range snowstorm show up and then have it disappear in a few days?  Is that better than one not showing up at all?

[packbacker]

For an ensemble mean this is nuts...

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Here's the 12z GFS at 186.  What's wrong with this pattern?  It doesn't show a snowstorm, but it wouldn't take much of a change to show one.  Right now, we do not have any idea how strong any southern stream energy will be at 186.  We also don't have any idea how much of an interaction it might have with the northern stream at 186.  This isn't far away from something...I'm telling you.  Watch this period.

 

[Stormcatt]

Why is it necessary to see a fantasy long range snowstorm show up and then have it disappear in a few days? Is that better than one not showing up at all?

I don't get either. Can't live and die by op runs

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[packbacker]

Obviously the CMC-ens is nothing like the GEFS handling of the pac, shows nice split flow, suppressed storm strack, cold/east trough. 

[mackerel_sky]

Obviously the CMC-ens is nothing like the GEFS handling of the pac, shows nice split flow, suppressed storm strack, cold/east trough.

10 day CMC, FTW

[franklin NCwx]

Obviously the CMC-ens is nothing like the GEFS handling of the pac, shows nice split flow, suppressed storm strack, cold/east trough.

gfs always struggles with southern stream waves.

[SnowNiner]

LOL...yep, GEFS just went all 98 on us.  If EPS agrees I would be shocked.  

 

It would be funny if we went 98 redux rest of winter, would be almost worth it to watch people squirm.   Like I said, I would take another 98 if we got 2-3" of snow in mid/end of Jan.

 

Wow, that does look like what we're seeing on the models recently....and let's not forget 98 had a -AO through the winter.  Also noted the lack of a +PNA.  Hopefully the PNA stays put, we need that for cold air delivery IMO, even more so than the -NAO/AO. 

 

Why is it necessary to see a fantasy long range snowstorm show up and then have it disappear in a few days?  Is that better than one not showing up at all?

 

Not necessary, but I take it the pattern at long leads is actually a snow producing one in a general sense; that there's some reason for optimism that on occasion the storms are shown.  If you can't get any fantasy snow, as often as they're run, with as many outcomes as they produce, what does that say about the pattern?  And I just don't ever buy the whole "too much energy for the models to understand"...."pattern is just too CRAZY for the models to digest".  It's a CRAZY pattern change! If NO models are showing fantasy blips, it kind of shows me we're just not there yet for one reason or another.  

[Brick Tamland]

Why is it necessary to see a fantasy long range snowstorm show up and then have it disappear in a few days?  Is that better than one not showing up at all?

 

You're right. Just hope we do start seeing something show up by this weekend for next week. The pattern still looks good. The indicies look good. We have had a ton of rain since fall with the Nino, and that doesn't look like it is going to quit anytime soon. Also have to remind myself a lot of times we would have clear skies in the forecast 5 days out only for it to be changed to rain a couple of days later. The cold looks like it is coming back again next week. Guess we just have to be patient.

[Cold Rain]

Wow, that does look like what we're seeing on the models recently....and let's not forget 98 had a -AO through the winter.  Also noted the lack of a +PNA.  Hopefully the PNA stays put, we need that for cold air delivery IMO, even more so than the -NAO/AO. 

 

 

Not necessary, but I take it the pattern at long leads is actually a snow producing one in a general sense; that there's some reason for optimism that on occasion the storms are shown.  If you can't get any fantasy snow, as often as they're run, with as many outcomes as they produce, what does that say about the pattern?  And I just don't ever buy the whole "too much energy for the models to understand"...."pattern is just too CRAZY for the models to digest".  It's a CRAZY pattern change! If NO models are showing fantasy blips, it kind of shows me we're just not there yet for one reason or another.  

 

 

I think the horrible December is messing with our expectations a little bit.  We have actually seen a few fantasy storms nearby over the last week to 10 days.  I don't buy the too much energy thing either, as it relates to fantasy storms.  But it is extremely likely that the models are not correctly estimating the strength, positioning, or interaction of such energy in terms of how the exact outcome will pan out.  Look at the map I posted above.  You don't see a fantasy storm there, but if the model is correct on the general pattern but wrong on the exact details, the next couple of runs could easily show something interesting.

[Cold Rain]

You're right. Just hope we do start seeing something show up by this weekend for next week. The pattern still looks good. The indicies look good. We have had a ton of rain since fall with the Nino, and that doesn't look like it is going to quit anytime soon. Also have to remind myself a lot of times we would have clear skies in the forecast 5 days out only for it to be changed to rain a couple of days later. The cold looks like it is coming back again next week. Guess we just have to be patient.

 

Correct.  This has happened a lot this fall and winter.  Don't forget this.  It's an illustration of exactly what I said above about the models not able to resolve the abundance of energy, particularly in a split flow pattern.  We haven't seen a Nino like this in a long, long time.  You will see storms just pop up out of nowhere.  It will happen.  Just watch.

[packbacker]

Correct.  This has happened a lot this fall and winter.  Don't forget this.  It's an illustration of exactly what I said above about the models not able to resolve the abundance of energy, particularly in a split flow pattern.  We haven't seen a Nino like this in a long, long time.  You will see storms just pop up out of nowhere.  It will happen.  Just watch.

 

Well cold does appear to be coming for atleast a few days but with the GEFS/EPS diverging day 10+ it gives you pause.    Look at the differences...EPS says yes, the GEFS says no.

[McDowell_Weather]

I've been lurking around here for three years I just recently joined. My name's Heath like the candy bar lol. I've been trying to learn as much as I can, really appreciate some of you guys posts, I've learned a lot. The SE fourm is a breed of its own compared to the rest of the board. But guys look at last winter for example we had too wait till February to deliver the goods. I remember getting three inches early one morning with only the hrr an nam picking up on it the night before. It completely throu GSP for a loop they had a 20% chance of flurries. Just goes to show anything is possible don't live an die by the op models. It's an emotional rollercoaster that never ends. The main thing is we got a decent pattern trying to evolve at the moment with lots of energy flying around, no way the op models can get a handle on it. I think anything is possible in the near future no need to Cliff dive.

[Shawn]

348 hour maps.. didn't the GEFS fail to the EPS for the start of everything anyway?  

[SnowNiner]

I think the horrible December is messing with our expectations a little bit.  We have actually seen a few fantasy storms nearby over the last week to 10 days.  I don't buy the too much energy thing either, as it relates to fantasy storms.  But it is extremely likely that the models are not correctly estimating the strength, positioning, or interaction of such energy in terms of how the exact outcome will pan out.  Look at the map I posted above.  You don't see a fantasy storm there, but if the model is correct on the general pattern but wrong on the exact details, the next couple of runs could easily show something interesting.

 

You're right of course, things could just pop up because of a million reasons, timing, strength of features, etc.  But hey, I'm a weenie, and a lot of what I think and expect is based on my own personal experience, and from my recollections usually there's smoke before there's fire...

[Cold Rain]

You're right of course, things could just pop up because of a million reasons, timing, strength of features, etc.  But hey, I'm a weenie, and a lot of what I think and expect is based on my own personal experience, and from my recollections usually there's smoke before there's fire...

 

Lol...well hopefully we will see some smoke soon!

[Cold Rain]

Well cold does appear to be coming for atleast a few days but with the GEFS/EPS diverging day 10+ it gives you pause.    Look at the differences...EPS says yes, the GEFS says no.

 

Yeah, I hear you.  I just can't worry too much about 360+ when we have cold weather right on the doorstep.  Maybe we relax a bit and come back strong.  Or maybe we don't relax much at all.  Lots of flip-flopping in the LR will continue.

[mackerel_sky]

Yeah, I hear you. I just can't worry too much about 360+ when we have cold weather right on the doorstep. Maybe we relax a bit and come back strong. Or maybe we don't relax much at all. Lots of flip-flopping in the LR will continue.

This weekend looks a little relaxing ! I'm back to 60!

[burgertime]

I'm not even worrying about storm threats yet. The fantasy snows are fun to look at but pointless unless it's only 4 days out. Give me that PV dropping and waves coming east and we will get something. Once we get in the pattern then it's time to see what the models say about breaking it down. They always want to break patterns down too fast when it's first setting up. 

[tnweathernut]

Well cold does appear to be coming for atleast a few days but with the GEFS/EPS diverging day 10+ it gives you pause.    Look at the differences...EPS says yes, the GEFS says no.

I don't know why it would give anyone pause actually.  It happened multiple times the last two years where the GFS and ensembles kept trying to warm things up in the extended.

 

I am not sure why anyone even looks at the GFS long range anymore and it will likely perform even more poorly with the upcoming split-flow.  When the EPS and GGEM agree with the GFS then go ahead and use it, but when it's on an island I would proceed with an abundance of caution.