Jonesing for a chase Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah after looking at the model runs this morning it is clear the teleconnection models are not communicating well with the operationals LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 For people that live and die by the GFS op model, you'll be cliff diving this morning. It has two major storms in the LR that run up west of the Appalachians. Do I believe it, no. I think with the blocking we'll see these storms shift more to the SE as we get closer to the events. I just don't understand why the op keeps showing this with epic blocking. It's somewhat frustrating even being the op. the 16-17th warms up and rains but starts off looking really good. I hope you are correct or we are all toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I just don't understand why the op keeps showing this with epic blocking. It's somewhat frustrating even being the op. the 16-17th warms up and rains but starts off looking really good. I hope you are correct or we are all toast. Have the models ever encountered huge blocking with one of the strongest Nino's on record? I think we may be in a little uncharted territory here. Hard to know though as I'm surprised at the lack of cold staying power the models are currently showing in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I just don't understand why the op keeps showing this with epic blocking. It's somewhat frustrating even being the op. the 16-17th warms up and rains but starts off looking really good. I hope you are correct or we are all toast. It would almost be funny to see this happen. It would prove the point that we need something more than the perfect pattern; and that is luck. Honestly, I think the PNA is the one crucial element; after that and luck out ways everything else. Luck = perfect timing, threading the needle, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Have the models ever encountered huge blocking with one of the strongest Nino's on record? I think we may be in a little uncharted territory here. Hard to know though as I'm surprised at the lack of cold staying power the models are currently showing in the medium range. This is a great question. I was wondering the same thing yesterday when I saw the indices. Strongest -AO and -NAO signal I have see since Jan. 2010. El Nino signal then was not close to this year. Should be very interesting to see what verifies beginning next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I just don't understand why the op keeps showing this with epic blocking. It's somewhat frustrating even being the op. the 16-17th warms up and rains but starts off looking really good. I hope you are correct or we are all toast. I don't understand this either. The Euro is showing the same thing around Day 10 with a retreating HP off the East Coast and a LP in the Gulf that is bringing rain to the SE. Correct me if I and wrong but I thought that the "Blocking" is supposed to keep those HPs anchored in the NE. If so, either the models are wrong or that so-called "Blocking" isn't going to help us very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We might want to hibernate until Feb, LOL. Pattern looks good day 11+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well this sure isn't horrible Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Well this sure isn't horrible Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk holy blocking high pressure Batman. If that set up yields nothing I really need to consider whether the stress of this hobby is worth it. that map is the equivalent of getting all six numbers on the lotto but there is no prize money available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We might want to hibernate until Feb, LOL. Pattern looks good day 11+.pattern looks great in a few days, just have to get past this weekends cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Have the models ever encountered huge blocking with one of the strongest Nino's on record? I think we may be in a little uncharted territory here. Hard to know though as I'm surprised at the lack of cold staying power the models are currently showing in the medium range. Agree either they are overdoing the blocking or they are too fast with the progression....they are also getting slaughtered on surface features in the medium range....there are lows everywhere and obviously the models just cant deal with the setup.....hopefully the blocking etc is going to be as good as models want to indicate.....if that happens everything else falls into place. If the pattern isnt as blocky then we are gonna need some help getting the timing right....sick of seeing lake cutters all over the GFS too ugh everytime it runs I promise myself I wont look at the next run and I still do...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ignore the surface, keep with the big picture a week+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Indexes looking good again. Let's keep it going: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 ^lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That's about as good as it gets CR. All three are slightly better than yesterdays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 we just got to wait it out and pray those hold. But as someone pointed out we have had blocking before but nothing to show for it so we need to be prepared for such a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ignore the surface, keep with the big picture a week+ out./ yep. models will come to reality, just give it time. and i still love next week. could the wave get squashed to cuba? sure...but if you ask anyone what look you would want to see on the gfs 140hrs out it would be cold and suppressed storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Good pattern was 10+ days out during the last week of December. We'll be at that mark by Sunday and we're looking at multiple cutters with the most epic blocking we've ever seen. Now the goods are 11+ days out? I mean, is it time to go ahead and throw in the towel for January yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 pattern looks great in a few days, just have to get past this weekends cutter. An extended snowy pattern seems unlikely. I imagine we will be tracking for a 1-2 week window to get our 1-2 events, hopefully. It may be 15-25th or could be in Feb. Surprised that even the mtns can't get an event, multiple places in the east for latest measurable snowfall...red flag goes up. We have had blocky nino's that don't produce (98, 77, 70, 64)...we will see. I was always bullish on end of Jan into Feb and that hasn't changed but for some reason it's been rare to get early/mid Jan snowfalls. I think we reshuffle around the 20th and then maybe pattern develops early Feb. 7 weeks till March and next 10 days look non-snowy so we will have roughly 5 weeks to try and get a 1-2 week window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Good pattern was 10+ days out during the last week of December. We'll be at that mark by Sunday and we're looking at multiple cutters with the most epic blocking we've ever seen. Now the goods are 11+ days out? I mean, is it time to go ahead and throw in the towel for January yet? if the 16-18th is a fail then perhaps. that is what I am holding out for as the models keep showing something but it that ends up crap it will get ugly in both our forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just looked at the operational models and none of them really look all that great in terms of anything specific. The Pacific is too messy. There are so many waves in the northern stream that the PNA isn't really helping northern stream waves to dig. Given that, I don't see any real threat of a big phasing storm for us in the near term. We're also seeing the PV predominately setting up a bit too far west, which is why there is very little confluence in the NE that would allow high pressure to build in. The blocking looks good, but we need the Pacific to be less convoluted to allow better cold air drainage. The good news is the STJ is active. All of that said, we are going to need a northern stream wave to go by, bringing a cold shot, followed by a southern stream wave. That's how we will snow in this pattern. Any of these events will be marginal, in terms of cold air. Pay attention to the 12-14. That is the first shot we have at something. I'm not sold there will be nothing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Even if we don't get anything next week, we still have two more weeks of January to go. The pattern looks great starting next week for winter storm threats. Next week could just be setting the stage for the last two weeks of the month. Throwing in the towel now on the rest of January when we still have three weeks to go is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We might want to hibernate until Feb, LOL. Pattern looks good day 11+.Lol first big cold push in Sunday then looks pretty good storms or no storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I would say the confidence meter for me has gone down a bit. I still am excited about the pattern and where we are heading, but things are starting to show how we don't make it work. The models are back to theD10+ stuff and that is not a good sign, IMHO. I am not saying lets throw in the towel, but I think its not as promising as before. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Even if we don't get anything next week, we still have two more weeks of January to go. The pattern looks great starting next week for winter storm threats. Next week could just be setting the stage for the last two weeks of the month. Throwing in the towel now on the rest of January when we still have three weeks to go is silly. I agree. The weather models are going to have difficulty picking up on specific storms and details in this setup (split flows and all), so I don't feel it's a big worry that we aren't seeing any one storm right now on the models. If we were, everyone would be freaking out over the NW Trend. Looking at the big picture (teleconnections, etc.) the models are painting will be much more useful and telling; we are entering one of the most favorable winter patterns in years, so it shouldn't be hard to get a storm. We just might not see any particular threat until we are much closer to the event. If someone on this forum doesn't see snow in this upcoming pattern, then we're just incredibly unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I agree. The weather models are going to have difficulty picking up on specific storms and details in this setup (split flows and all), so I don't feel it's a big worry that we aren't seeing any one storm right now on the models. If we were, everyone would be freaking out over the NW Trend. Looking at the big picture (teleconnections, etc.) the models are painting will be much more useful and telling; we are entering one of the most favorable winter patterns in years, so it shouldn't be hard to get a storm. We just might not see any particular threat until we are much closer to the event. If someone on this forum doesn't see snow in this upcoming pattern, then we're just incredibly unlucky. The past has shown we have our most snow here when we have the -AO/-NAO and +PNA combo. We're going to have that. This is the best setup we can have to give us snow. Still three weeks left this month, and all of February, too. Last winter sucked until February, and then we had an event every week, and two that were pretty big. And we didn't even have the favorable pattern then like we do now. It's not 100%, but this is the best possible pattern we could have for snow according to what we have seen in the past. If it doesn't work out, then we are just really unlucky or our the way our weather/atmosphere works is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 RIpples on Tuesday... AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 938 AM EST THU JAN 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE THE HEARTLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Unbelievable that so many folks in here are losing confidence...mind blowing really. Everything is lined up like we haven't seen in many years but yet everyone wants to hang their hat on what the models are showing verbatim. The models aren't going to show our storms until we get closer, big pattern changes like this don't bode well for the models at this stage. Give it another 2-3 days before you start having your pitty parties. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The past has shown we have our most snow here when we have the -AO/-NAO and +PNA combo. We're going to have that. This is the best setup we can have to give us snow. Still three weeks left this month, and all of February, too. Last winter sucked until February, and then we had an event every week, and two that were pretty big. And we didn't even have the favorable pattern then like we do now. It's not 100%, but this is the best possible pattern we could have for snow according to what we have seen in the past. If it doesn't work out, then we are just really unlucky or our the way our weather/atmosphere works is changing. If I remember right, last year was also full of 6-7 day snowstorms on the models that consistently trended NW out of our region. It's not necessarily a good thing to see a big storm even a week out on the models. If the pattern is there, someone's going to cash in at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Larry Cosgrove posted an update on FB today about the storm threats and he thinks our storm here in the south will be the 21-23. While the 9-11 will be wind/rain for most and 17-19th will be snow north of Richmond, VA. He also said the blocking should last through early March, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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