January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[BristowWx]

Hey - we get 4 seasons up here, winter being the shortest - 6 - 10 weeks with 4 - 6 usually cold (by that I mean nights with upper teens/lower 20s and days in the high 40's to low 50's with warm spells of 65/40 thrown in) - and other than last year, I've had some frozen precip of some sort most every year I can recall (our NWS calls it "unknown precipitation" - truly   LOL)

 

Gainesville is NOT Tampa, Orlando or Miami - we're a whole different climate and really still part of south Georgia - topographically, weather wise, accent wise, food wise ....

 

I have a rule - I don't voluntarily go south of Paynes Prarie - it turns into "Florida" there ....

 

Thnx for the thought!!!!

Not unlike Northern VA when compared to rest of VA...we are like a whole other state too. I'm headed to Key West next week for work. Now that's Florida. Hopefully we both see some winter weather soon. Right now both you and I have the same snow totals so far this season.

[pcbjr]

Not unlike Northern VA when compared to rest of VA...we are like a whole other state too. I'm headed to Key West next week for work. Now that's Florida. Hopefully we both see some winter weather soon. Right now both you and I have the same snow totals so far this season.

 

LOL on the mutual snow totals

 

Have fun in Key West - that's not another state, it's another universe if not cosmos.

 

And if it snows there while you're visiting .... I'll invite you to Gainesville sometime for the karma   lol

 

Now - I have to get back to work. Litigation is calling ....

[SnowNiner]

. Yeah for me, I'm much more worried about the cold being present than the waves getting squashed.

 

Well dang.  I guess we'll see.  You guys being so optimistic has me scratching my head a bit.  Much respect.  I just haven't seen too much at all to say we've got moisture coming early next week; everything is strung out and dry.  Hope you're right! 

[franklin NCwx]

Not unlike Northern VA when compared to rest of VA...we are like a whole other state too. I'm headed to Key West next week for work. Now that's Florida. Hopefully we both see some winter weather soon. Right now both you and I have the same snow totals so far this season.

I would rather live in sw Virginia than northern Virginia.

[franklin NCwx]

Hey - we get 4 seasons up here, winter being the shortest - 6 - 10 weeks with 4 - 6 usually cold (by that I mean nights with upper teens/lower 20s and days in the high 40's to low 50's with warm spells of 65/40 thrown in) - and other than last year, I've had some frozen precip of some sort most every year I can recall (our NWS calls it "unknown precipitation" - truly LOL)

Gainesville is NOT Tampa, Orlando or Miami - we're a whole different climate and really still part of south Georgia - topographically, weather wise, accent wise, food wise ....

I have a rule - I don't voluntarily go south of Paynes Prarie - it turns into "Florida" there ....

Thnx for the thought!!!!

truth! The farther south you go in Florida the more "northern" it gets.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

No worries man. Don't the chances of ice storms go down as we get into Feb? I know I heard that somewhere.

I live in GA and I don't ever recall a Feb icestorm. That icestorm in 2014 skipped my area.

[mackerel_sky]

I live in GA and I don't ever recall a Feb icestorm. That icestorm in 2014 skipped my area.

You were in Ohio when it hit!

I'm gonna hit 60 on Sunday , hopefully the cold next week will be real! Don't need frigid, just about 10 degrees below avg

[Snowless in Carrollton]

You were in Ohio when it hit!

I'm gonna hit 60 on Sunday , hopefully the cold next week will be real! Don't need frigid, just about 10 degrees below avg

lol no. I went to Ohio in 2015. Anyway.... FFC shows me with pretty seasonal temps next week, with lows near 30 and highs about 5 degrees below normal. Either they are being conservative or this arctic air being advertised next week is greatly exaggerated.

[Huffwx]

CIP's analogs...several hits for smallish events.

 

What time frame is that?

[Batman]

I was a Birmingham kid and was raised with Spann on TV and JB Elliot, Chief Met for BMX was a neighbor (and a winter weather fan). James rode the coat tails of JB when it came to winter weather and JB was featured on his blog often. JB passed away last year and I think James misses his input. Spann "had" a reputation because of his call of the 93 storm. No other Mets in the area were willing to pull the trigger as fast as James. Since, he has not been as great and loves him some GFS. He will acknowledge the EURO but it doesn't update during his wheelhouse hours.

 

James Spann is the very best in severe weather setups and is probably responsible for thousands of saved lives in the past 30 or so years.

 

Hey DB! I read Spann's blog everyday. I am also in Birmingham about once a month on business trips. He is the only TV met I will intentionally turn the TV on to see. He is a great guy. I agree that he excels in severe weather and does not spend as much time focusing beyond about day 3. I guess it comes with the job. It does seem he relies heavily on GFS, which can make you look real bad in the LR. With that said, I was still shocked at his heavy leaning on the run to run GFS for next week, when the indices are painting a very different picture.

 

As far as Glen Burns goes, I think he gets the sunrise wrong about 50% of the time. 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Hey - we get 4 seasons up here, winter being the shortest - 6 - 10 weeks with 4 - 6 usually cold (by that I mean nights with upper teens/lower 20s and days in the high 40's to low 50's with warm spells of 65/40 thrown in) - and other than last year, I've had some frozen precip of some sort most every year I can recal![/quote

Wow, that's more winter than I get here in the upstate of SC!

[DopplerWx]

looks to be suppressed again, cold though.

[mrdaddyman]

One Great Lakes Low after another.

[HKY_WX]

I think Jan 10th-15th is a decent opportunity. Increasing as we head towards jan 20th with the geenland blocking setting up per LR EURO ENS. Strong el-nino plus that greenland block = dynamite. Last few weeks of January look to be exciting IMO.

[Wow]

I think Jan 10th-15th is a good opportunity. Increasing as we head towards jan 20th with the geenland blocking setting up per LR EURO ENS. Strong el-nino plus that greenland block = dynamite.

 

0z GFS develops a severe -NAO block.  That effectively locks in the cold and begs for something big to happen. Ignore the surface, the models are hopelessly lost on so much energy moving across. Won't pick up on something until with 5 days at least.

[HKY_WX]

Jan 20th global look on the EURO ENS is probably the best looking block I have seen since 2009-2010 winter. With the El-Nino slowly trending central and then west based, we could have a several week period of winter weather storminess not seen since that winter.

[J.C.]

Pretty good look right there on the 00z.

[HKY_WX]

0z GFS develops a severe -NAO block.  That effectively locks in the cold and begs for something big to happen. Ignore the surface, the models are hopelessly lost on so much energy moving across. Won't pick up on something until with 5 days at least.

Yea the extended EURO ensembles show an insane block setting up over all of greenland. People don't really understand the impact that will have. It will literally force everything further south and slow down the flow dramatically over the CONUS promoting lots of opportunites for phasing and cutoff type snowstorms. It's rare to combine this type of block with a strong el-nino. There could be an insane couple weeks of winter weather the last part of Jan into early feb.

[HKY_WX]

Check this out. EURO ENS extended valid jan 21. Notice the PV is basically destroyed, only small PV lobs on the map. Huge block over greenland. Unreal pattern setup.

[Jonathan]

It's GO-TIME when Brandon shows up!

 

This is just too much And this is only thru 240!

 

[superjames1992]

No worries man. Don't the chances of ice storms go down as we get into Feb? I know I heard that somewhere.

Generally, I believe so, but we got a major ice storm (plus a minor one mid-month) in March 2014 here and I've heard of some ice storms in late March before, so they can happen.

[griteater]

The GFS Ensemble was pretty much good the entire run.  Mid way through it even retrogrades the Pacific pattern and pumps the W Canada ridge...wow at this image here

 

[griteater]

Ditto for the 00z Canadian Ensemble...looks good throughout.  It's even better than the GFS on the Atlantic side as it takes the PV vortex into SE Canada as opposed to the GEFS keeping it over Hudson Bay

[griteater]

Canadian Ens...hard to draw it much better than this

 

[Daniel Boone]

It's GO-TIME when Brandon shows up!

This is just too much And this is only thru 240!

gfs1lol.jpg

gfslol2.jpg

gfslol3.jpg

gfslol4.jpg

They screwed up the rain/snow line in the precipitation maps with the gfs upgrade. Also, it could have been programmed with more precision pertaining to this area along the Cumberland mountains.

[WxBlue]

Well, GFS ensembe got the Arctic Oscillation so negative that Maue had to enlarge his oscillation plots. 

 

[dsaur]

Kinda a ridiculous statement when the chances are better than not that there will be snow before April somewhere in the southeast.  NC Mountains are considered the southeast and I can tell you I'll be totally shocked if there isn't a couple of good snow storms in them there hills. 

It's always good policy to say no to snow in the se, lol.  Afterward you say we told you first about the big storm   T

[Slick Weather]

The 00z GFS ensembles aren't impressive for snowy weather in the South for the 12th-13th.  In fact, none of the members show much of anything.

[burgertime]

Which time period are you talking about here? You mentioned medium range I'm guessing the 1/11-13th storm?

 

I'm getting caught up on the models after work, but the GEFS and EPS are terrible, has what maybe 3-4 individual members popping decent lows/storms for the SE on the GEFS? I'm not sure how that's hinting at a storm, the location of those 3-4 lows can change the next ensemble suite, thus the mean will either no longer be there or be in another position...don't get me wrong, I like the general pattern we're headed into to support a storm, I just don't see the support for a specific threat during this time period for the SE. I see the potential for a storm Jan 17th time frame, no doubt about that. Just can't bite, or even nibble, at the Jan 13th time period. Other than OP runs spitting out snow in W NC, not sure why people are excited for this time period.

 

Yes I was talking about the 1/11-13th. Typically when a model shows a decent hit which the 12z did when we're looking for the first real signs of a storm most posters are elated. Especially coming into a new pattern where the models have been hinting at a storm for a while.  It was more a post about the overall mood of the place given for once we had a storm show up that wasn't in fantasy land even if it was one model. Most of the models were showing a low popping in the gulf though most were keeping it suppressed...I'm not sure I agree that there wasn't support. Over the model runs from the Euro at 12z up until 6z this morning...yes I would say there isn't much support now but at 12z and the runs before it, it looked primed. Heck I'm not quit giving up for that time period as you have the cold there. 

[FallsLake]

For people that live and die by the GFS op model, you'll be cliff diving this morning. It has two major storms in the LR that run up west of the Appalachians. Do I believe it, no. I think with the blocking we'll see these storms shift more to the SE as we get closer to the events.