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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Carl Parker from TWC was asked if he thinks there will be any snowstorms in the southeast this winter and he says chances are lower than they have been the last couple of winters but there may be an ice storm !!!!

Kinda a ridiculous statement when the chances are better than not that there will be snow before April somewhere in the southeast.  NC Mountains are considered the southeast and I can tell you I'll be totally shocked if there isn't a couple of good snow storms in them there hills.  :snowing::snowwindow:

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How quickly we seem to forget that waves in the STJ seem to usually hold together longer and produce more precipitation than originally modeled at long leads.

And how often that has happened since the start of fall when we started getting all the rain, and how the forecasts had it dry 5 days out only to change to rain two or three days later.

Of course, our luck that will change now. But then that would go totally against everything we know about the pattern coming up starting next week if we stay dry for a long time.

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But then that would go totally against everything we know about the pattern coming up starting next week if we stay dry for a long time.

 

Do you remember how many times you said this last year when everyone called for wall to wall cold and snow all winter long? "Mets are really going to have to re-evaluate everything they know about how to get snow here, etc etc, etc"

 

Every year is a year by itself. We've never had a year with things occurring/behaving on the planet in various levels of our atmosphere the way they are this year, ever. And we never will again.

 

Analogs and maps comparing years to each other based on a few factors are nice and all, but there's nothing in the world that can remotely illustrate what's happening RIGHT NOW, THIS YEAR. Nothing.

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Do you remember how many times you said this last year when everyone called for wall to wall cold and snow all winter long? "Mets are really going to have to re-evaluate everything they know about how to get snow here, etc etc, etc"

 

Every year is a year by itself. We've never had a year with things occurring/behaving on the planet in various levels of our atmosphere the way they are this year, ever. And we never will again.

 

Analogs and maps comparing years to each other based on a few factors are nice and all, but there's nothing in the world that can remotely illustrate what's happening RIGHT NOW, THIS YEAR. Nothing.

 Brings to mind a verse from a song I love (Terrapin Station):

 

While the firelight's aglow

Strange shadows from the flames will grow

Till things we've never seen

Will seem familiar

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I see Dave walking occasionally in my neighborhood,and he seems very unapproachable, like his @@@@ doesn't stink. He worked at Macy's Lenox as a sales guy when TWC let him go a few years ago, surprised they hired him back. God he has aged.

Just run up to him and look all crazy, then force him to take a selfie with you , then make that your avatar! That would be epic, just like next weeks winter storm!
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Kinda a ridiculous statement when the chances are better than not that there will be snow before April somewhere in the southeast.  NC Mountains are considered the southeast and I can tell you I'll be totally shocked if there isn't a couple of good snow storms in them there hills.  :snowing::snowwindow:

TWC seems like the Atlanta, GA Weather Channel when it comes to the "Southeast".  Watching the channel in the past, barring a hurricane in Florida, you'd think the world ended outside Georgia as far as the "Southeast" is concerned.  Our weather rides the line between Mid-Atlantic and Southeast as yours does in the NC mountains.  There may be no TWC-worthy coverage of winter weather in the Southeast outside Georgia this winter but what I've learned from you wiser souls that even this winter some of us out here in the provinces will get something..even this year.

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^

Yeah , if you can't get excited about the AO going to -5 or so.... And a -NAO, we've been looking for that for 5 years!

 

Well yeah, it's "exciting", but what happens if it doesn't produce? This winter goes down as its very own analog. Maybe to be used years into the future when there's a super -AO/NAO during a super Nino. And even then, it won't correctly predict the weather that year.

 

 Brings to mind a verse from a song I love (Terrapin Station):

 

While the firelight's aglow

Strange shadows from the flames will grow

Till things we've never seen

Will seem familiar

 

That's the thing. Every single winter is a winter unlike anything we've ever seen before. Every season marches to the beat of its own drum. Not an analog drum or an oscillation index drum.

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How quickly we seem to forget that waves in the STJ seem to usually hold together longer and produce more precipitation than originally modeled at long leads.

Yes, I used different & convoluted wording, but your post conveys exactly my thinking.  If we can keep the general pattern look, we should have good precip being thrown back into cold air mid next week

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So Carl Parker is dumb now for calling for ice storms in the Southeast?

 

I think for many, ice storms are a big chance.  The constant flow of medium-strong high pressure systems.  The idea of the lows able to form in the Central Gulf and really strengthen in the warmer waters to bring warm air in the mid levels with them..

 

So because he didn't call for snow he is dumb?

 

Sad that both weather forums are asking for the heads of people in much better positions than 99% of us for not forecasting blizzard conditions in their back yard.

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So Carl Parker is dumb now for calling for ice storms in the Southeast?

 

I think for many, ice storms are a big chance.  The constant flow of medium-strong high pressure systems.  The idea of the lows able to form in the Central Gulf and really strengthen in the warmer waters to bring warm air in the mid levels with them..

 

So because he didn't call for snow he is dumb?

 

Sad that both weather forums are asking for the heads of people in much better positions than 99% of us for not forecasting blizzard conditions in their back yard.

No, it was his statement about the chances of snow being lower this year than the past couple of winters. Right now that looks kind of crazy. If the indices that are being modeled come to fruition, this winter would offer the best chances we have seen in 5 years.

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So Carl Parker is dumb now for calling for ice storms in the Southeast?

I think for many, ice storms are a big chance. The constant flow of medium-strong high pressure systems. The idea of the lows able to form in the Central Gulf and really strengthen in the warmer waters to bring warm air in the mid levels with them..

So because he didn't call for snow he is dumb?

Sad that both weather forums are asking for the heads of people in much better positions than 99% of us for not forecasting blizzard conditions in their back yard.

Dude, come on. That's a bit dramatic. I was just being silly. He's not dumb for suggesting there is a chance of ice storms. I don't agree that there is a below average chance of a snowstorm in the SE this winter, though. But nowhere did I call for the man's head. Maybe someone else did though and I missed it.

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Yes, I used different & convoluted wording, but your post conveys exactly my thinking. If we can keep the general pattern look, we should have good precip being thrown back into cold air mid next week

. Yeah for me, I'm much more worried about the cold being present than the waves getting squashed.
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Sorry guys, not trying to get too crazy.  I just respect Carl's opinions... he seems like a half-way smart dude and it seemed like everyone was attacking him.

 

I didn't see the live segment, but assumed he was calling for ice storms... now that I go back and read again it seems he could have called for lower chances of actual snow... and especially for Northern SC, GA, TN, and NC I disagree with him on that.

 

Ice storms big chance down here in Columbia, Atlanta (and right South to Macon)... I-20 basically.  Snow (with some ice) to you guys to the North.

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Sorry guys, not trying to get too crazy. I just respect Carl's opinions... he seems like a half-way smart dude and it seemed like everyone was attacking him.

I didn't see the live segment, but assumed he was calling for ice storms... now that I go back and read again it seems he could have called for lower chances of actual snow... and especially for Northern SC, GA, TN, and NC I disagree with him on that.

Ice storms big chance down here in Columbia, Atlanta (and right South to Macon)... I-20 basically. Snow (with some ice) to you guys to the North.

No worries man. Don't the chances of ice storms go down as we get into Feb? I know I heard that somewhere.

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Sorry guys, not trying to get too crazy.  I just respect Carl's opinions... he seems like a half-way smart dude and it seemed like everyone was attacking him.

 

I didn't see the live segment, but assumed he was calling for ice storms... now that I go back and read again it seems he could have called for lower chances of actual snow... and especially for Northern SC, GA, TN, and NC I disagree with him on that.

 

Ice storms big chance down here in Columbia, Atlanta (and right South to Macon)... I-20 basically.  Snow (with some ice) to you guys to the North.

 

 

It's all cool!

 

For what it's worth - at least you get a shot. I just sit down here and learn and wish .....

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No worries man. Don't the chances of ice storms go down as we get into Feb? I know I heard that somewhere.

 

I wouldn't be surprised from climo.  Usually snows hit us down here in SC in Mid-Late Jan  (a few early ones).. and then the second week of Feb snow for the most part.

 

With that said, we have had our fair share of ice storms mid Feb too.  Recently we had a big sleet/ice deal that got a natural disaster claimed right around I-20 the second week of Feb.

 

N. GA, NC, NW/Northern SC I would no doubt believe it (for higher snow vs ice chances)

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It's all cool!

 

For what it's worth - at least you get a shot. I just sit down here and learn and wish .....

Sorry dude. FL is a cool state but must be tough if you like winter weather. At least you are in the part of the state that sees some cold weather.

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Sorry dude. FL is a cool state but must be tough if you like winter weather. At least you are in the part of the state that sees some cold weather.

Hey - we get 4 seasons up here, winter being the shortest - 6 - 10 weeks with 4 - 6 usually cold (by that I mean nights with upper teens/lower 20s and days in the high 40's to low 50's with warm spells of 65/40 thrown in) - and other than last year, I've had some frozen precip of some sort most every year I can recall (our NWS calls it "unknown precipitation" - truly   LOL)

 

Gainesville is NOT Tampa, Orlando or Miami - we're a whole different climate and really still part of south Georgia - topographically, weather wise, accent wise, food wise ....

 

I have a rule - I don't voluntarily go south of Paynes Prarie - it turns into "Florida" there ....

 

Thnx for the thought!!!!

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