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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

Just saw James Spann from Birmingham's afternoon update and he mentions that the GFS has backed off of the cold for next week on the 12Z run so he is now forecasting highs in the 40s for Birmingham for Monday with slow warming the rest of the week. I have always thought that Spann was very good, but tended to waiver on his commentaries from run to run of the models. This really surprises me with indices (NAO and AO) looking to be so consistently low that he would not at least mention that there is a contradiction and that the 12Z run of the GFS for next week could bust. Our forcasted highs for the last three days have busted badly from last week. If the forcasted AO and NAO hold, I could see much more of this going forward.

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

Especially from old man Spann.  "Global models have backed off of the cold air, then moderates through the week"

 

"still no sign of any winter weather mischief during the next 10 day's"

 

SOUNDS PEACHY DOESN'T IT??...

 

http://www.alabamawx.com/

Spanns great when it comes to severe weather and tornadoes. He seems to struggle when it comes to winter weather though.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Wow, so we get a big storm showing up in the medium range and most are picking it apart? Ok I guess...I'm not overly excited but it shows what potential this pattern has. I also like the timing of it. We get cold starting to move with another system moving in. This is usually how we score with threats on the backside of a relaxing pattern. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro says but the GEFS this morning hinted at this storm as well. 

Which time period are you talking about here? You mentioned medium range I'm guessing the 1/11-13th storm?

 

I'm getting caught up on the models after work, but the GEFS and EPS are terrible, has what maybe 3-4 individual members popping decent lows/storms for the SE on the GEFS? I'm not sure how that's hinting at a storm, the location of those 3-4 lows can change the next ensemble suite, thus the mean will either no longer be there or be in another position...don't get me wrong, I like the general pattern we're headed into to support a storm, I just don't see the support for a specific threat during this time period for the SE. I see the potential for a storm Jan 17th time frame, no doubt about that. Just can't bite, or even nibble, at the Jan 13th time period. Other than OP runs spitting out snow in W NC, not sure why people are excited for this time period.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

Especially from old man Spann.  "Global models have backed off of the cold air, then moderates through the week"

 

"still no sign of any winter weather mischief during the next 10 day's"

 

SOUNDS PEACHY DOESN'T IT??...

 

http://www.alabamawx.com/

I'm sorry but Spann makes no sense sometimes. He says no winter weather mischief the next 10 days but he also says there could be some rain on Tuesday even though low temps will be in the 20s.

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

I like James Spann. I realize that Spann's blog (AlabamaWx) is directed to the more general public. Therefore, if there is no specific winter threats showing, there is no need to alarm about possible snow or ice. On the other hand, there is a very strong signal for a winter pattern showing up. One that has not been this strong in about 6 years. To not mention it and to revert to what the 12Z run is saying is a little weak no matter who the audience is.

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max100

max100

Posted
Posted

I like James Spann. I realize that Spann's blog (AlabamaWx) is directed to the more general public. Therefore, if there is no specific winter threats showing, there is no need to alarm about possible snow or ice. On the other hand, there is a very strong signal for a winter pattern showing up. One that has not been this strong in about 6 years. To not mention it and to revert to what the 12Z run is saying is a little weak no matter who the audience is.

All public METS go by the almighty GFS,,,,BS..This is what the public hears daily and are very mislead.  That is why I have had many an argument with friends, family that use the crap weather apps on the IPhone, Andriod, etc. People take it as the gospel truth, and no I am not religious.

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DixieBlizzard

DixieBlizzard

Posted
Posted

I like James Spann. I realize that Spann's blog (AlabamaWx) is directed to the more general public. Therefore, if there is no specific winter threats showing, there is no need to alarm about possible snow or ice. On the other hand, there is a very strong signal for a winter pattern showing up. One that has not been this strong in about 6 years. To not mention it and to revert to what the 12Z run is saying is a little weak no matter who the audience is.

 

I was a Birmingham kid and was raised with Spann on TV and JB Elliot, Chief Met for BMX was a neighbor (and a winter weather fan). James rode the coat tails of JB when it came to winter weather and JB was featured on his blog often. JB passed away last year and I think James misses his input. Spann "had" a reputation because of his call of the 93 storm. No other Mets in the area were willing to pull the trigger as fast as James. Since, he has not been as great and loves him some GFS. He will acknowledge the EURO but it doesn't update during his wheelhouse hours.

 

James Spann is the very best in severe weather setups and is probably responsible for thousands of saved lives in the past 30 or so years.

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max100

max100

Posted
Posted

I was a Birmingham kid and was raised with Spann on TV and JB Elliot, Chief Met for BMX was a neighbor (and a winter weather fan). James rode the coat tails of JB when it came to winter weather and JB was featured on his blog often. JB passed away last year and I think James misses his input. Spann "had" a reputation because of his call of the 93 storm. No other Mets in the area were willing to pull the trigger as fast as James. Since, he has not been as great and loves him some GFS. He will acknowledge the EURO but it doesn't update during his wheelhouse hours.

 

James Spann is the very best in severe weather setups and is probably responsible for thousands of saved lives in the past 30 or so years.

Definitely for severe weather season.  

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Nice signal on the 18z GEFS for the 13th.

This storm is a significant threat in my opinion.  One thing I like about it is that it's a coherent wave in the southern stream as it hits the west coast...as opposed to some freak vort dropping down out of the northern stream...and it has nice ridging behind it along the west coast (in response to the next Pacific wave in the El Nino wave train).  I think we will see more definition with it in the coming days.  Cold air setup looks good with it too.  The storm for the weekend should be a good one too, but have more concerns with it being warmer....just my thoughts for now

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Have no idea what to think. Some folks saying things look good and there is a strong signal for a storm on the 13th, and others saying there isn't anything there for that time.

All I know is we SHOULD get some snow here with the -AO/-NAO and +PNA we will have starting next week. If we don't, then mets will have to second guess all they know about what gives us snow here.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

This storm is a significant threat in my opinion.  One thing I like about it is that it's a coherent wave in the southern stream as it hits the west coast...as opposed to some freak vort dropping down out of the northern stream...and it has nice ridging behind it along the west coast (in response to the next Pacific wave in the El Nino wave train).  I think we will see more definition with it in the coming days.  Cold air setup looks good with it too.  The storm for the weekend should be a good one too, but have more concerns with it being warmer....just my thoughts for now

Completely agree...be nice to get on the scoreboard (1-2" type deal) to hold us over until Feb, which "should" have better chances.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

This storm is a significant threat in my opinion.  One thing I like about it is that it's a coherent wave in the southern stream as it hits the west coast...as opposed to some freak vort dropping down out of the northern stream...and it has nice ridging behind it along the west coast (in response to the next Pacific wave in the El Nino wave train).  I think we will see more definition with it in the coming days.  Cold air setup looks good with it too.  The storm for the weekend should be a good one too, but have more concerns with it being warmer....just my thoughts for now

I would be more upbeat on 17th deal if we could have heights lower toward Nov's Scotia. That may be our Feb pattern...

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Nice signal on the 18z GEFS for the 13th.

I still see 4 lows, albeit in a better location for NC but it's still 4/20 ensemble members. Not that strong of a signal to me or am I missing something? I like the pattern and agree with most of grits post but not sure if this is a sig threat yet. Grit knows his stuff though so him chirping on it makes me look a little harder haha. Hopefully the euro eps shows a nice couplet of lows tonight.
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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I still see 4 lows, albeit in a better location for NC but it's still 4/20 ensemble members. Not that strong of a signal to me or am I missing something? I like the pattern and agree with most of grits post but not sure if this is a sig threat yet. Grit knows his stuff though so him chirping on it makes me look a little harder haha. Hopefully the euro eps shows a nice couplet of lows tonight.

I like where it is this far out. Uk had low in gulf at 144 too.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH on the 11-13th 'threat'

OTHERWISE...YET ANOTHER MODEL CHANGE IS THAT THE LATEST GFS BRINGSMOISTURE AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY UP ACROSS THE COASTAL SESTATES...WITH A RESULTANT COASTAL LOW PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THEGULF STREAM ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF...SIMILAR TO ITS PREV RUNS...STILL KEEPS THE S/W ENERGY FLATTER AND FARTHER SUPPRESSED TO THESOUTH...WITH THE END RESULT BEING A CONTINUATION OF DRY SEASONABLEWEATHER FOR THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ECMWFENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE DRY OPERATIONAL SOLUTION...AND IT SEEMSWISE TO NOT JUMP ON ONE RUN OF THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A BIG CHANGEFROM PREV RUNS...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MON-WED TIME FRAME DRY.
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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted

I guess I am all alone to think this pattern is full of potential?

 

No I agree there is a lot of potential, and you are much more knowledgeable than I, so if you are raising an eyebrow then I am perking up my ears! 

I am mainly uneasy about the modeled temps for many of the non-mountainous locations as they seem to be borderline (at best) for next week. The last few days have been much colder that what is progged for next week for many of us. With areas of WNC above about 2500 feet it's not if but when they will get snow. For much of the rest of us it has to be pretty much perfect with the cold and storm track to even have a shot. I definitely am excited about how the pattern seems to be shaping up for the next few weeks though, and you would have to think non-mountain locations will get a shot or two sometime, even it it's just a small potato or two. 

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