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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Burger, I'm no pro, but I believe it's just an artifact of the STJ.  I've heard it said that when you have an active STJ, the latitude at which the wave enters the CONUS is the latitude at which it exits.  I'm sure that's not always true, but in this case, the Euro shows the energy in the STJ nicely, with wave after wave tracking basically west to east across the southern tier.  This part of the equation is just what we need.

 

I knew it was something obvious...it just looked odd to me on the surface. 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

 

Impressive looking -NAO on 12z Euro run today late.

 
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Like to see if the ensembles agree with that strong of a -NAO, or even close.  If it does, it holds, and we still can't score in NC, I give up.  I'm moving to Boston with NCrainpacker!

 

Does the EURO lose the -EPO in the long range? 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

^^ Nice!  I'd like to see that big low in the Pacific tick a bit SW.  But man, what nice blocking.  Ladies and gentlemen, look at those maps.  You have been waiting a long time to see that.  Who knows if it helps us get snow, but that's what we want to see when we ask for blocking.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

It's a beast but it's taking its shots. Take a look at 30/50hpa on today's euro run. Splits at those levels (still cold as heck) and 10hpa getting disturbed. 

 

I'm not really worried about the strat. It's clearly not the pretty blue target it was during all of Dec and major disruptions typically pop up in the medium to short range.

 

Just looking at that, impressive.  Op GFS agrees, it gets crazy with the warming late in the run.  

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

FXUS21 KWNC 062035
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 06 2016

SYNOPSIS: A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., THEN SPILL SOUTHEAST. MULTIPLE, WEAKER
SYSTEMS, ARE ALSO FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN ALASKA. LATER
NEXT WEEK, SOME MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE WESTERN U.S.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, SUN, JAN 10.

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, SAT-SUN, JAN 9-JAN 10.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST,
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, SAT-MON, JAN 9-JAN 11.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE GREAT
LAKES, SAT-SUN, JAN 9-JAN 10.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND
THE OHIO VALLEY, SAT-SUN, JAN 9-JAN 10.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SAT-SUN, JAN 9-JAN 10.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SAT-MON, JAN 9-JAN 11.

FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES, THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
SAT-SUN, JAN 09-JAN 10.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST, WED-THU, JAN
13-JAN 14.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
THE GREAT LAKES, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
SOUTHEAST, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND
THE SOUTHWEST, THU, JAN 14.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THU-FRI, JAN 15.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S., THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO
VALLEY, FRI, JAN 15.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PUERTO RICO, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY JANUARY 09 - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 13: A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY (GREATER THAN 4 INCHES) OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEARER THE COASTLINE AND AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.



IN THE THE WAKE OF THAT LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM, BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (25-30
KNOTS) ARE LIKELY TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE LIKELY TO
SUPPORT HEAVY, LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL, FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME MODELS
DEPICT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOWFALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE THE DEPICTION OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD, AT THIS TIME. THE
COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND, WHILE
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



SOME MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS MOVING
FROM OVER TEXAS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THOSE REGIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN FURTHER NORTH, SO NO HAZARD IS DEPICTED AT THIS
TIME.



MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COALESCING TOWARD SOLUTIONS DEPICTING ANOTHER LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT, BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME HEAVY
RAINS/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.



A PERSISTENT TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. WINDS AND RAIN ARE LIKELY
TO BUFFET WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. SOME MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION
EXCEEDING HAZARDS THRESHOLDS, BUT OTHERS DISAGREE ON SPECIFIC TIMING, SO THAT
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE DEPICTION OF A HAZARD.





FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 14 - WEDNESDAY JANUARY 20: LATER NEXT WEEK, SOME MODIFIED
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ODDS FOR DROPPING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE EXCEED 20
PERCENT) IS INDICATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES, THE AREAS OF RISK DECREASE IN COVERAGE.



HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN IS LIKELY
TO EXTEND INTO THIS PERIOD. MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES A SPECIFIC HAZARD ANY
FURTHER EAST THAN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO D4), FROM 12.65 PERCENT TO 11.56 PERCENT.

FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

$$

----
PRO08302015 WHARRELL

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