packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Everyone take a break from the crappy GFS LR output for 5 minutes and go read the Winter discussion in the main thread. You can thank me later. Fab Feb! I guess we need to see if the AO dips below -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Everyone take a break from the crappy GFS LR output for 5 minutes and go read the Winter discussion in the main thread. You can thank me later. I don't know if you were sent from the North Pole or heaven...but thank you. Of course someone pointed out the Euro doesn't have such neg AO as GEFS....I should have stopped at the post before that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow, so we get a big storm showing up in the medium range and most are picking it apart? Ok I guess...I'm not overly excited but it shows what potential this pattern has. I also like the timing of it. We get cold starting to move with another system moving in. This is usually how we score with threats on the backside of a relaxing pattern. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro says but the GEFS this morning hinted at this storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 12z GEFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Everyone take a break from the crappy GFS LR output for 5 minutes and go read the Winter discussion in the main thread. You can thank me later. Forgive my ignorance but where are you talking about? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Fab Feb! I guess we need to see if the AO dips below -5. You can get too much of a good thing though. if you take a look at how the GEFS depicts the 16-18 fantasy threat is it suppressed so far south west its below the border. Maybe -5 is not so good...-3 perhaps but I don't really know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 You can get too much of a good thing though. if you take a look at how the GEFS depicts the 16-18 fantasy threat is it suppressed so far south west its below the border. Maybe -5 is not so good...-3 perhaps but I don't really know I am thinking if we want a rocking February filled with blocking, the lower the better. The GFS and GEM suggest we take a run at a daily -AO value of sub 6, something only seen 8 times since 1950. (8 days in approximately 23,800 days) Very rare indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GEFS looks great, the blocking setting up, it's been mis-handling the pac since this all got going and I suspect the trough will shift east. The pac low isn't that bad a spot as is. I know it shows it AN in the SE but I ain't buying it. --AO, --NAO, +PNA, n-EPO, -WPO isn't cold SW and warm SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Forgive my ignorance but where are you talking about? TIA! from Don Sutherland: the latest GFS ensembles are forecast the AO to plunge. There is strong agreement among the ensemble members that the AO will fall to -5.000 or below. Such extreme values are uncommon. However, such extreme values have become somewhat more common since 2000. Such extreme blocking would suggest troughing in eastern North America. More importantly, should such extreme blocking develop, it would provide a strong signal of a blocky February. In short, even as the most recent December proved to be an autumn, not winter month, an extreme AO-, should it develop, could offer the strongest signal so far that there will be plenty of opportunity for winter weather from mid-January onward. North America and Europe would both see such opportunities if past extreme January blocking cases are representative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 12z gefs was a great look. plenty cold and perfect low placement. i expect the next few runs to waffle but as long as it continues to show the low somewhere in the gom i will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't know if you were sent from the North Pole or heaven...but thank you. Of course someone pointed out the Euro doesn't have such neg AO as GEFS....I should have stopped at the post before that one. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if the Euro caves in on this. Either way, what a drastic turn-around from December! Forgive my ignorance but where are you talking about? TIA! Here's the link, but Coach nailed the gist of it: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 euro crushes the storm, but it is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 euro crushes the storm, but it is cold. Good. Almost perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Good. Almost perfect. It was very close, leaves some energy behind in SW, if it had it brought it all out it would have been game on. Looks so much better/closer than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Everyone take a break from the crappy GFS LR output for 5 minutes and go read the Winter discussion in the main thread. You can thank me later. lol, I don't think this forum could survive without crappy GFS LR outputHow in the h-bomb are we getting this kind of -AO with such a hostile stratosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It was very close, leaves some energy behind in SW, if it had it brought it all out it would have been game on. Looks so much better/closer than previous runs. yea, a great sign that as the gfs showed the storm the euro trended better as well. both show plenty of cold air which is priority #1 at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 lol, I don't think this forum could survive without crappy GFS LR output How in the h-bomb are we getting this kind of -AO with such a hostile stratosphere I'm sure Cohen saw it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It ends up crushing the ss energy and is almost pure ns and it looks like it may wrap up and hit the NE. They sure can find 17 different ways for it to snow in Boston, I am moving there, that will make it stop snowing there, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 lol, I don't think this forum could survive without crappy GFS LR output How in the h-bomb are we getting this kind of -AO with such a hostile stratosphere I keep thinking the AO is going to fade to neutral/positive, it has to eventually...PV is still a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 How is the threat around the 17th looking on the Euro? It looked somewhat improved on the 12z GEFS...except for the torching temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 plenty of threats on the long range euro, sw galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 How is the threat around the 17th looking on the Euro? It looked somewhat improved on the 12z GEFS...except for the torching temps. Only out to day 8, but the Op's after day 6 have been really bad, will have to wait till EPS comes out in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Only out to day 8, but the Op's after day 6 have been really bad, will have to wait till EPS comes out in a couple of hours. That makes sense. It seems like this has been the time period I have been interested in forever...only 10 more days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago Impressive looking -NAO on 12z Euro run today late. 3 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet 3 Like More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago Impressive looking -NAO on 12z Euro run today late. 3 retweets0 likes Reply Retweet 3 Like More I just came in here to post that. My main take-aways from the Euro are that it keeps the PNA and the -NAO pretty much through the run. I'd like to see a little more cold build into Canada, but I guess with all of the ridging up there, that may be a tall order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I keep thinking the AO is going to fade to neutral/positive, it has to eventually...PV is still a beast. It's a beast but it's taking its shots. Take a look at 30/50hpa on today's euro run. Splits at those levels (still cold as heck) and 10hpa getting disturbed. I'm not really worried about the strat. It's clearly not the pretty blue target it was during all of Dec and major disruptions typically pop up in the medium to short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Euro Day 10. That's the look I lurrve. High in NY, just need it a bit stronger. Good wedge showing up with a low in the gulf. (NO GL low!!) Does it hang around? Next weekend seems to be a good time period, Does snow on the ground favor us or Seattle that Sunday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hopefully a pro can answer this for me but what exactly is forcing our S/W's so far south? Usually, you don't see energy diving like that unless the PV is really strong. In this case it doesn't seem extreme enough to force them down to Flordia or the "meat grinder" scenario. Shouldn't they ride along the boundry and at worst be a southern slider? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 WxSouth 4 mins · Blocking is a term you'll hear more of this Winter. The last few years we had almost no blocking in the Polar Regions , especially near Greenland,in fact the opposite occurred. When blocking occurs in eastern Canada, the North Pole, or Greenland, usually it portends Winter mischief in the Southeast, or Eastern US. All Global models were forecasting it in the longer ranges and keep it up now in the more reliable shorter ranges. European is developing a Blockbuster of a Greenla...nd Block in 7 through 10 days, with vast Polar warmth dominating. What does this mean for the lower 48? Combine an El Nino southern storm track with cold air pressing southward and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. It's impossible to name the exact date(s) of the Southern /MidSouth/Winter storm, just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hopefully a pro can answer this for me but what exactly is forcing our S/W's so far south? Usually, you don't see energy diving like that unless the PV is really strong. In this case it doesn't seem extreme enough to force them down to Flordia or the "meat grinder" scenario. Shouldn't they ride along the boundry and at worst be a southern slider? Burger, I'm no pro, but I believe it's just an artifact of the STJ. I've heard it said that when you have an active STJ, the latitude at which the wave enters the CONUS is the latitude at which it exits. I'm sure that's not always true, but in this case, the Euro shows the energy in the STJ nicely, with wave after wave tracking basically west to east across the southern tier. This part of the equation is just what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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