snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Something I did find interesting is at the end of the 6z, there's a low in Florida with a 1040 HP above the great lakes, granted it's quite a bit above it but could be something to keep an eye on. Wouldn't pay much attention to it, the 384 hour GFS is notorious for doing things like this. The Euro OP is much better in the mid-range and shows some very close scenarios both under 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wouldn't pay much attention to it, the 384 hour GFS is notorious for doing things like this. The Euro OP is much better in the mid-range and shows some very close scenarios both under 200 hours. I know, just trying to be optimistic about something lol. Looks like after the rain at the end of this week and the weekend, looks like we might be in a dry spell a little bit. so cold and dry it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Any idea what the record low for the AO is?-7.433 Jan 15 1977 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I know the op GFS gets bashed especially in the LR but this is good from day 9 to know what ensembles are showing for same time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS looks really good for 13th potential, much stronger energy out SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The problem I'm seeing on all the operationals is whenever there is a gulf storm shown, there is always a low placed up in the great lakes which is crushing our fantasy snow dreams and stopping the cold air flow. I don't know what's causing it exactly (active northern stream? close vortex proximity?) but until we switch out these suckers for high pressures I think all we do is rain. Not sure what to look for to make that better, but we can't say the pattern is great until we see H's where there are currently L's IMO. I don't think it's fair to call the pattern 'great', but it's better than normal. Best way to have high pressure in the lakes is with ridging in southwest Canada combined with a blocked up North Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Probably will get squashed but day 5-6 looks really good on GFS, gulf low, strong southern energy, enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Probably will get squashed but day 5-6 looks really good on GFS, gulf low, strong southern energy, enough cold air. i really like that look at 126, energy further north, rolling eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Snow in central AL at hour 144! It might hold together y'all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is that snow breaking out in Raleigh at hour 150? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Oh no, Cold Rain's low over the lakes is messing up our cold air, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 well this run should get everyone in a better mood, good trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GSP looks to be in the good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Blue line stays on I-85. Figures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 EPO flips positive at 144, which ensembles keep it negative during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Oh no, Cold Rain's low over the lakes is messing up our cold air, LOL. Meh, next. JK I'll take that look any day at D6ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Meh, next. JK I'll take that look any day at D6ish. Well it hammers Boston so it must be right, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well it hammers Boston so it must be right, LOL. Boston is always hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As others have said, I do believe any legitimate shot we have is probably going to pop up in earnest within 100 hours or less. These systems with this type of setup are very hard for the models to pick up on. Experience (over 30 years) tells me that the specifics in central NC are never nailed down until 12 hours or less. January 2000 is a great example of that... The storm last year is another example....southern Wake barely got a dusting when models were showing upwards of 6 inches even within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This storm is still a cold rain for most of central NC. If we are already borderline with temps now then I'm not expecting anything frozen out of it by the time next week rolls around due to the dreaded NW trend that usually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This storm is still a cold rain for most of central NC. If we are already borderline with temps now then I'm not expecting anything frozen out of it by the time next week rolls around due to the dreaded NW trend. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This storm is still a cold rain for most of central NC. If we are already borderline with temps now then I'm not expecting anything frozen out of it by the time next week rolls around due to the dreaded NW trend that usually occurs. don't take the first model run that shows a possible hit verbatim 6 days out...that is silly. it simply shows that we have a signal for a storm and we have plenty more model runs to watch. temps will ALWAYS be an issue in central nc, no matter what the models show. see last feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 don't take the first model run that shows a possible hit verbatim 6 days out...that is silly. it simply shows that we have a signal for a storm and we have plenty more model runs to watch. temps will ALWAYS be an issue in central nc, no matter what the models show. see last feb. I agree that this was a great run. Even looking at the storm verbatim it would be very close for many in central NC down towards the up state of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 12z cmc is bone dry next week till late week when it has a nice rain storm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS At Hour 156: Probably won't work out, but still nice to see that the signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The rest of the run looks to be a train wreck with no cold air. It seems to go against all of the teleconnections. I think we need to toss it, storm and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Uhm, the talk about the "NW trend". I was under the impression with good blocking, that would not happen to the extremes we have seen it in the past? Especially with a high over the Hudson Bay (instead of a pesky low over the lakes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 So, the GFS has the precip, and the Euro and Canadian have the cold. Maybe it will lead to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well here's the snow fall totals. Looks like from about RDU westward are the winners for this run. But wait for the next one and it'll be totally different. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=12&fhour=162¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Everyone take a break from the crappy GFS LR output for 5 minutes and go read the Winter discussion in the main thread. You can thank me later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.