January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[snowlover91]

The 00z GEFS members.. some are trying to get something going in the Gulf by hour 156. (12th time-frame)

 

It's not bad at all, actually.

Overall there are signals there for something the 11-12th and 14-15th for sure.. The question is can we get the right timing? The cold air should be in place but we need the timing to be good. That's why we don't get many snowstorms each winter; when you live in the south you can't just have the cold or the moisture, you need both timed correctly to work out. Areas to our NW can get clippers in a dry NW flow and score but due to the mountains they usually don't work out all that well for us. That leaves us with our typical Miller A scenarios or overrunning events. The fact that the Euro OP is finally beginning to hint at something soon is a good sign. It would take only a few small changes to produce a snow event for each of those above mentioned dates whereas a few runs ago it didn't show much potential.

[Shawn]

Overall there are signals there for something the 11-12th and 14-15th for sure.. The question is can we get the right timing? The cold air should be in place but we need the timing to be good. That's why we don't get many snowstorms each winter; when you live in the south you can't just have the cold or the moisture, you need both timed correctly to work out. Areas to our NW can get clippers in a dry NW flow and score but due to the mountains they usually don't work out all that well for us. That leaves us with our typical Miller A scenarios or overrunning events. The fact that the Euro OP is finally beginning to hint at something soon is a good sign. It would take only a few small changes to produce a snow event for each of those above mentioned dates whereas a few runs ago it didn't show much potential.

 

The 00z Canadian ensemble mean has a signal too.  Members aren't out yet.  In fact, even further down the line it's pretty good for NC.

[snowlover91]

The big question I have right now is what pattern we transition to in the long range? Does the cold continue to stay around or do we go into another pattern altogether? Analogs favor the end of January as BN across the SE but not terribly so, just 2-4F BN. The Canadian ensembles from 12z indicate this and the Euro to a lesser extent. I could see this pattern taking shape January 19-20th and lasting through the end of the month.. Then early February going into the "freezer" so to speak with strong PNA ridging and multiple Arctic shots. This is why I think the 11-20th is our best shot for something wintry with a little pattern relaxation/typical Nino setting up late January with the worst of the cold coming for February.

One thing is the NW trend we've seen in models. The 9-11th storm initially was modeled by ensemble means for southern AL and the Florida Panhandle. Now that storm is forecast to either cut through the apps (CMC), go west of there (GFS) or form a Miller B solution like the Euro. It's amazing we have such a disparity at this range for that event with widely varying qpf amounts also. GFS is virtually nothing while Euro and CMC are very wet around here.

[Heisy]

Not a terrible look on the LR EURO. Neutral tilted wave coming out of the Southwest. Looks like some decent confluence forming in SE Canada. Would be interesting to see what would come of it beyond 240 hours. The 15-18th period has been my favorite time period for a while now.

 

[packbacker]

Just nuts...never seen anything like this.

[packbacker]

Have a feeling we won't see anything substantial on the globals for the 13th until we are inside 96 hours. Still a good threat.

[tnweathernut]

Just nuts...never seen anything like this.

And yet, the GFS ensembles still go wacky in the long range.  Not saying "wacky" can't be right of course.

[No snow for you]

Just nuts...never seen anything like this.

Any idea what the record low for the AO is? 

[Brick Tamland]

Just have to wait and see. Hard to be patient, though, and the model runs being so different and all over the place doesn't help any. I know the pattern looks great for snow. I know the indicies look great for snow. I know the forecast right now for next week is dry and in the 40s, but that can change. I just can't help but feel we're going to have the usual weather of really cold and dry, and then when the precip comes it warms up too much for anything but rain.

[packbacker]

And yet, the GFS ensembles still go wacky in the long range.  Not saying "wacky" can't be right of course.

 

 

Any idea what the record low for the AO is? 

 

I am not sure the AO will be off the charts when it verifies but this would be record breaking or close I would think.  The GEFS does agree and CMC-ENS is close.  Euro/EPS dip it below -4 so the GEFS has been leading the way with the blocking as it has been.  Just look at what it's doing with the NAO at the Jan 17th potential...if this is is right and we get a strong system coming through...

[packbacker]

You can see from long lead time (day 10+) the ensembles have been trying to raise the AO and it's been verifying lower.  Looks like from day 7 it has a good handle.

 

 

[FallsLake]

You can see from long lead time (day 10+) the ensembles have been trying to raise the AO and it's been verifying lower.  Looks like from day 7 it has a good handle.

That's even a better look than yesterday.  

[packfan98]

Lots of Miller A systems on the individual 6z GEFS members from 15th-17th.  However it doesn't look cold enough and the SE misses out on most.  There does seem to be potential.  Hopefully we will get a better picture by the weekend.

[FallsLake]

It's a better look(from yesterday) for all the indices:

PNA stays positive but looks to continue positive in the LR. Good member agreement

NAO now looks to stay mostly negative in the LR.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[packbacker]

Lots of Miller A systems on the individual 6z GEFS members from 15th-17th.  However it doesn't look cold enough and the SE misses out on most.  There does seem to be potential.  Hopefully we will get a better picture by the weekend.

 

The EPO goes positive and we lose our cold air feed but with a -AO/-NAO and HP over the lakes you would think we would have a little better cold feed then it shows.  But, it's 10 days out, I will take my chances with a coastal tracking to our SE with a -AO/-NAO and HP over lakes.  Assuming we get anything remotely close to that, LOL.

[Cold Rain]

That's even a better look than yesterday.

You just hang on buddy!

[Stormcatt]

Hm is still onboard for the 13-15th for the SE .

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Brick Tamland]

The EPO goes positive and we lose our cold air feed but with a -AO/-NAO and HP over the lakes you would think we would have a little better cold feed then it shows.  But, it's 10 days out, I will take my chances with a coastal tracking to our SE with a -AO/-NAO and HP over lakes.  Assuming we get anything remotely close to that, LOL.

 

And the +PNA. The +PNA and -AO/-NAO combo is supposed to be the best for snow in the Raleigh area. We'll see if it works out this time.

[packfan98]

I'm having a hard time understanding why the models seem to be struggling so much.  I thought southern systems (miller A) were the easiest to predict.   We are not looking for a phase.   Also, it seems every year it is blamed on "so many pieces of energy flying around."  That made sense the past two winters with no blocking and a fast flow.  With the blocking setting up, why are the same arguments being used?  I'm just trying to learn something here.  Who can help?

[packbacker]

I'm having a hard time understanding why the models seem to be struggling so much.  I thought southern systems (miller A) were the easiest to predict.   We are not looking for a phase.   Also, it seems every year it is blamed on "so many pieces of energy flying around."  That made sense the past two winters with no blocking and a fast flow.  With the blocking setting up, why are the same arguments being used?  I'm just trying to learn something here.  Who can help?

 

I think it's the blocking, STJ and of course the pac.   The strong blocking, the strong STJ and where that pac low low sets up is not easy to predict.  Just a WAG though.

[SnowNiner]

The EPO goes positive and we lose our cold air feed but with a -AO/-NAO and HP over the lakes you would think we would have a little better cold feed then it shows.  But, it's 10 days out, I will take my chances with a coastal tracking to our SE with a -AO/-NAO and HP over lakes.  Assuming we get anything remotely close to that, LOL.

 

The problem I'm seeing on all the operationals is whenever there is a gulf storm shown, there is always a low placed up in the great lakes which is crushing our fantasy snow dreams and stopping the cold air flow.  I don't know what's causing it exactly (active northern stream? close vortex proximity?) but until we switch out these suckers for high pressures I think all we do is rain.  Not sure what to look for to make that better, but we can't say the pattern is great until we see H's where there are currently L's IMO.    

 

[tnweathernut]

I'm having a hard time understanding why the models seem to be struggling so much.  I thought southern systems (miller A) were the easiest to predict.   We are not looking for a phase.   Also, it seems every year it is blamed on "so many pieces of energy flying around."  That made sense the past two winters with no blocking and a fast flow.  With the blocking setting up, why are the same arguments being used?  I'm just trying to learn something here.  Who can help?

When you enter periods of "split flow" this is the hardest time on models and meteorologists IMO.  You have two separate streams, each traveling at two different speeds so trying to time them independently is hard enough, but when you are trying to calculate interactions of the northern and southern streams it adds to the difficulty exponentially. Throw in the data sparse areas these storms wind up going through and you have the recipe for ever changing operationals and a nightmare trying to predict. I have seen 72 hour forecasts bust more often with a split flow than any other configuration.

[packfan98]

I think it's the blocking, STJ and of course the pac.   The strong blocking, the strong STJ and where that pac low low sets up is not easy to predict.  Just a WAG though.

 

 

When you enter periods of "split flow" this is the hardest time on models and meteorologists IMO.  You have two separate streams, each traveling at two different speeds so trying to time them independently is hard enough, but when you are trying to calculate interactions of the northern and southern streams it adds to the difficulty exponentially. Throw in the data sparse areas these storms wind up going through and you have the recipe for ever changing operationals and a nightmare trying to predict. I have seen 72 hour forecasts bust more often with a split flow than any other configuration.

 

Thanks!  The two streams makes sense.  I guess in a way it's similar to predicting a triple phase with timing.  Maybe once we get a system in the gulf, the models handle it better.

[Cold Rain]

Should we rely on the operational GFS in the LR to help us understand the pattern or this?

 

 

 

 

[BullCityWx]

Just nuts...never seen anything like this.

 

2013-2014 comes to mind but wow!

[DopplerWx]

Should we rely on the operational GFS in the LR to help us understand the pattern or this?

 

 

ao.sprd2.jpg

 

NCPE_phase_21m_full.jpg

i really dont understand why people are upset at what specifics the gfs is showing past 200hrs? give me sustained cold and suppressed storm systems and we WILL cash in.  gfs has a history of suppressing systems only to bring the precip north as the event gets closer.  the signals are there, the pattern is there, patience.  it is jan 6th...not march 6th.  

[Cold Rain]

i really dont understand why people are upset at what specifics the gfs is showing past 200hrs? give me sustained cold and suppressed storm systems and we WILL cash in.  gfs has a history of suppressing systems only to bring the precip north as the event gets closer.  the signals are there, the pattern is there, patience.  it is jan 6th...not march 6th.  

 

Exactly right.

[Bevo]

i really dont understand why people are upset at what specifics the gfs is showing past 200hrs? give me sustained cold and suppressed storm systems and we WILL cash in.  gfs has a history of suppressing systems only to bring the precip north as the event gets closer.  the signals are there, the pattern is there, patience.  it is jan 6th...not march 6th.  

 

But...but...I REALLY need something to complain about or I might die!

 

*Edit - just realized I was posting in the Discussion Thread. Mods - you know what to do

[FlatLander48]

Something I did find interesting is at the end of the 6z, there's a low in Florida with a 1040 HP above the great lakes, granted it's quite a bit above it but could be something to keep an eye on.

[snowlover91]

i really dont understand why people are upset at what specifics the gfs is showing past 200hrs? give me sustained cold and suppressed storm systems and we WILL cash in.  gfs has a history of suppressing systems only to bring the precip north as the event gets closer.  the signals are there, the pattern is there, patience.  it is jan 6th...not march 6th.

Not sure why we would look at the GFS outside even 120 hours, it's not done well outside the 5 day time range at all, not since January started at least. Even then the Euro and GFS OP have some interesting looks the 12-13th and 14-15th range. Euro last night had an overrunning setup that was extremely close on the 12-13th, it would take a small adjustment of the vort digging further south and we could get some of the white stuff. Then the 14-15th Euro has a classic Miller A with precip through Atlanta, GA to Columbia, SC. Wouldn't take much NW adjustment at all to get the precip into the rest of GA, SC and into NC and models are consistent about a storm during that time range. The fact that the Euro is so close to two different snows is a big change, for the better, imo. Both events are under 200 hours so it's not the extended range but rather more mid range now.