max100 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 1:31 PM, NCSNOW said: saw this posted on tw. Just sharing Meaning slim to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Not a bad look for the WA Cascades, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 1:36 PM, max100 said: Meaning slim to none. It's a week out what do you expect a 90% chance of over .25 liquid equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 1:57 PM, wncsnow said: It's a week out what do you expect a 90% chance of over .25 liquid equivalent? That is exactly what some people want. If that is not what is shown one week out we get another round of storm fail and winter cancel posts on here. This storm is being consistently modeled. It is looking like a matter of storm track and, for folks as far south as me, temps. One thing to note this morning about the current system is that the storm this morning is once again over performing on precip totals. NWS had about .25 forcasted for me. I will be surprised if I don't end up with an inch out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks like there is a chance for some snow the middle of next week. I thought there was another system to watch for next weekend, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:21 PM, Brick Tamland said: Looks like there is a chance for some snow the middle of next week. I thought there was another system to watch for next weekend, too. precip dies out before it reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:21 PM, Brick Tamland said: Looks like there is a chance for some snow the middle of next week. I thought there was another system to watch for next weekend, too. Both times have models barking to some degree. Actually saw jma last night I beleive and it was pretty wound up big daddy bullish. So busy trying to rope this one in haven't really focused on next week other than to know mid week and late week has opportunities. Gonna have to have the HP pos right for these 2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:28 PM, DopplerWx said: precip dies out before it reaches us. Well, I guess we can hope it is wrong and gets wetter as we get closer like it has ever since fall. Starting to have doubts about this winter. Nothing seems to be timed right. So much for the potential with the +PNA and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Gfs wants to amplify the mid week wave more and keeps the trough on the Friday event positively tilted the whole time. No system for next Friday on the gfs but no cutter. A lot of the euro ensemble members had an amped system so I find the gfs solution the least likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If there turns out to be a system next Tues/Wed, the temps would definitely be much more favorable. I looked at the guidance today, and the waves look pretty week with not a great 500mb look for a nice phased system. I'd prefer a stronger looking wave at this point, but at least I'm happy with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The mountains just chew that system up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The "model battle" continues into next week! Feels like a ride full of emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:33 PM, Queencitywx said: The mountains just chew that system up.Yeah they do. Great flow for the west face slopes into Tennessee but not for us east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 1:36 PM, max100 said: Meaning slim to none. Look. You live in Georgia. If you want to see snow you're going to have to do like me and go chase it. A couple years ago I got tired of never getting any snow so I decided if the snow won't come to me, I will come to the snow. Problem solved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:40 PM, snowstorm2011 said: Look. You live in Georgia. If you want to see snow you're going to have to do like me and go chase it. A couple years ago I got tired of never getting any snow so I decided if the snow won't come to me, I will come to the snow. Problem solved.you turned around half way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:41 PM, franklin NCwx said: you turned around half way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:41 PM, franklin NCwx said: you turned around half way. I stayed in a hotel in Kentucky and got buried with 10 inches of snow. A few weeks before that I did drive somewhere and turn around though. I did a lot of driving last winter. This winter I only plan on one snow chase and I want it to be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:48 PM, snowstorm2011 said: I stayed in a hotel in Kentucky and got buried with 10 inches of snow. A few weeks before that I did drive somewhere and turn around though.just buy you a small house at 5000ft in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:49 PM, franklin NCwx said: just buy you a small house at 5000ft in the mtns. Better yet, a small travel trailer and a set of chains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:49 PM, franklin NCwx said: just buy you a small house at 5000ft in the mtns. That's something I definitely plan on doing in the future. Right now, though I will just chase and stay in hotels. Or if anyone on this board has a spare room while i'm chasing I will gladly accept that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:51 PM, Stovepipe said: Better yet, a small travel trailer and a set of chains.we broke down and bought a new fifth wheel last year. Did you ever buy another camper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:55 PM, franklin NCwx said: we broke down and bought a new fifth wheel last year. Did you ever buy another camper? Halfway there, bought a new Ram 2500 4x4 last summer. The travel trailer is on track for fall of this year. At least I can chase a storm or two in the mountains with the truck in the meantime. Congrats on the new fiver! PM me pics when you get a chance. (sorry for the off topic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 4:31 PM, franklin NCwx said: Gfs wants to amplify the mid week wave more and keeps the trough on the Friday event positively tilted the whole time. No system for next Friday on the gfs but no cutter. A lot of the euro ensemble members had an amped system so I find the gfs solution the least likely. The 12z GEFS says the op is on its own with that solution Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 5:21 PM, Stormcatt said: The 12z GEFS says the op is on its own with that solution Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk interesting. I was hoping you would say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Big spread on GEFS is what I am hearing for next week. surprise, surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 5:35 PM, BristowWx said: Big spread on GEFS is what I am hearing for next week. surprise, surprise. I don't really think it's necessarily a big spread, just individual members are unsure whether to key on the first or the second impulse. I actually think there is a BIG signal for a Miller A on the 12z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 5:40 PM, tnweathernut said: I don't really think it's necessarily a big spread, just individual members are unsure whether to key on the first or the second impulse. I actually think there is a BIG signal for a Miller A on the 12z gefs. Euro Ens mean looks a little better for late next week. Positive tilt trough through the central states with big west coast ridging behind...then it wants to close off or bottom out over the southeast. Temps are marginal, but a little colder than yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 8:43 PM, griteater said: Euro Ens mean looks a little better for late next week. Positive tilt trough through the central states with big west coast ridging behind...then it wants to close off or bottom out over the southeast. Temps are marginal, but a little colder than yesterdaythere are some mixed signals some want to key on the first wave like the ops rather than the 2nd wave.Long range after looks terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 8:50 PM, franklin NCwx said: there are some mixed signals some want to key on the first wave like the ops rather than the 2nd wave. Long range after looks terrible. WxSouth, said Euro LR looks awful BIG WARM UP incoming!!! Short winter? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You know what...I don't buy any warm up, cool down, block, storm, or whatever. This winter has taught me the limitations of the models and their ensembles...everything and nothing is off the table in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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