dryslot Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 that should take care of most of the water bars on the trails. I would think so Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Kevin is melting in the model thread. It's getting less subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well supposedly he has been on the dead ratter bandwagon for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 what could cause this look southeast of florida rain moving north while it looks like rain is moving west from under it http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I was more surprised by MPM this morning, throwing in the towel on January 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well supposedly he has been on the dead ratter bandwagon for a while. Doesn't stop him from melting down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The euro op is pretty decent d6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I was more surprised by MPM this morning, throwing in the towel on January 5th. Mpm is our lovable eyore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I was more surprised by MPM this morning, throwing in the towel on January 5th. We have posters throw in the towel every single year in January when December goes bad. It's a timeless phenomenon on the weather forums. Sometimes we end up with a ratter (see 2011-2012)...other times they look really silly and we have a big 2nd half (see last year and 2012-2013 for the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 what could cause this look southeast of florida rain moving north while it looks like rain is moving west from under it http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/ I'll take a stab at it,anyone is free to correct me, when I was staying in Florida I noticed the low level moisture would tend to come in from the south east that's why you see the rip current statement on that map, meaning there is a strong onshore flow. Meanwhile if a storm system or frontal boundry was approaching from the west in the prevailing jet stream flow, I would see radar returns coming from two different directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Kevin is melting in the model thread. It's getting less subtle. Again, how can I melt when I forecast a ratter..which looks like it was a good forecast this year. Am i Pissed this winter is shatting the bed? Of course I am..my favorite season of the year is being ruined. but I accepted that back in Oct/Nov. The ones that threw these snowy back half of winter forecasts out or bought into them are the ones that are going to have trouble. BTW..how was that promising GFS op run you talked about in relation to GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Again, how can I melt when I forecast a ratter..which looks like it was a good forecast this year. BTW..how was that promising GFS op run you talked about in relation to GEFS? Again, how can I melt when I forecast a ratter..which looks like it was a good forecast this year. BTW..how was that promising GFS op run you talked about in relation to GEFS? The gefs also improved but not as dramatically. Keep it just cold enough for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 i hope not ... i hate those cold protracted springs that seem to always be apart of that 2nd half schit. 2nd half? fine - just don't 86 april and may and early june with bd's, cold nights and stunted budding... two years in a row now we made may 20th out my way with only half leaf out, and still dropping to 40 at night routinely. it just more than merely seems that when 2nd halfs flip, they don't know when to end; and don't do any good for anything because ur not getting snow that late when that happens. just misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 i hope not ... i hate those cold protracted springs that seem to always be apart of that 2nd half schit. 2nd half? fine - just don't 86 april and may and early june with bd's, cold nights and stunted budding... two years in a row now we made may 20th out my way with only half leaf out, and still dropping to 40 at night routinely. it just more than merely seems that when 2nd halfs flip, they don't know when to end; and don't do any good for anything because ur not getting snow that late when that happens. just misery Most of the long range guys and energy mets end winter quickly early Morch and torch the summer thankfully as we go nino to nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Most of the long range guys and energy mets end winter quickly early Morch and torch the summer thankfully as we go nino to nina. i know it's probably the last thing the majority wants to even contemplate... but if we ain't done it by Feb 10 i'm out - fuggit. best spring ever was that 2012 when march was 10 to 15 on the plus side and trees were half out by april 15. i remember forsythias and the smell of humid air, warm sun and bumble beez on march 1 that year. ...least i think it was 2012? one of those years there since 2009 was wicked, and the summer ended up pretty hot, too. not saying my present druthers don't include the opposite end of the spectrum, but it's put up or shut up, and i give 35 more days. oh, but we dream. reality will most certainly fall short of those, per usual - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 i know it's probably the last thing the majority wants to even contemplate... but if we ain't done it by Feb 10 i'm out - fuggit. best spring ever was that 2012 when march was 10 to 15 on the plus side and trees were half out by april 15. i remember forsythias and the smell of humid air, warm sun and bumble beez on march 1 that year. ...least i think it was 2012? one of those years there since 2009 was wicked, and the summer ended up pretty hot, too. not saying my present druthers don't include the opposite end of the spectrum, but it's put up or shut up, and i give 35 more days. oh, but we dream. reality will most certainly fall short of those, per usual - 2012 set all the daily warmth records, but March 2010 was actually milder up here, because it had no cold. March has gone subzero in 16-of-17 years here, but the bottom in 2010 was 11F. Two years later, we touched -10 during the first week before hitting 80 during the taste-of-summer week. That 90F span is the greatest I've had for any month since I began recording in the early 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 We have posters throw in the towel every single year in January when December goes bad. It's a timeless phenomenon on the weather forums. Sometimes we end up with a ratter (see 2011-2012)...other times they look really silly and we have a big 2nd half (see last year and 2012-2013 for the coast). I am sorry for my minimelt. I just turned 52 so you'd think I was a bit wiser. I'm feeling the heat because we leave for a month in savannah on feb 5. Non sequitur... I think we should have a gtg up north. Maybe a pub in Manchester or concord. Or maybe my house. Not abad drive for some of you southerners and we do retain pack well here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I am sorry for my minimelt. I just turned 52 so you'd think I was a bit wiser. I'm feeling the heat because we leave for a month in savannah on feb 5. Non sequitur... I think we should have a gtg up north. Maybe a pub in Manchester or concord. Or maybe my house. Not abad drive for some of you southerners and we do retain pack well here Well that explains your concern for a slow first half even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Again, how can I melt when I forecast a ratter..which looks like it was a good forecast this year. Am i Pissed this winter is shatting the bed? Of course I am..my favorite season of the year is being ruined. but I accepted that back in Oct/Nov. The ones that threw these snowy back half of winter forecasts out or bought into them are the ones that are going to have trouble. BTW..how was that promising GFS op run you talked about in relation to GEFS? Stupid comment considering we are in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I am sorry for my minimelt. I just turned 52 so you'd think I was a bit wiser. I'm feeling the heat because we leave for a month in savannah on feb 5. Non sequitur... I think we should have a gtg up north. Maybe a pub in Manchester or concord. Or maybe my house. Not abad drive for some of you southerners and we do retain pack well here I'd be willing to travel for it just not on a weekday. I could make it a weekend getaway to the north country with the pregnant wife. She could use it although she's an anti snow weenie. Plus the NNE crowd seems less insane than us...icould learn a thing or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Stupid comment considering we are in early January. No more stupid than calling for 40-70+ inches of snow the last 40 days of winter depending on locale in a year that doesn't want to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 No more stupid than calling for 40-70+ inches of snow the last 40 days of winter depending on locale in a year that doesn't want to snow Thing is, no it isn't....that remains to be seen. Which is why your comment is dumb. PS: if anything, I have had an even better handle on the first half than you have, as evidenced by my use of the warmest December on record as primary monthly analog....well, second warmest now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Thing is, no it isn't....that remains to be seen. Which is why your comment is dumb. PS: if anything, I have had an even better handle on the first half than you have, as evidenced by my use of the warmest December on record as primary monthly analog....well, second warmest now. Good luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 "In a year it doesn't want to snow"....you know, until it does. Kind of reminds me of how March was now a torch month...you know, until it wasn't 3 years running now. I'm not on record as predicting a blockbuster 2nd half like Ray is, but using persistence to forecast months (or years in the case of the March example) in advance is lazy and quite often wrong. If we had a static climate it would have more merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 "In a year it doesn't want to snow"....you know, until it does. Kind of reminds me of how March was now a torch month...you know, until it wasn't 3 years running now. I'm not on record as predicting a blockbuster 2nd half like Ray is, but using persistence to forecast months (or years in the case of the March example) in advance is lazy and quite often wrong. If we had a static climate it would have more merit. Completely fair post. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 "In a year it doesn't want to snow"....you know, until it does. Kind of reminds me of how March was now a torch month...you know, until it wasn't 3 years running now. I'm not on record as predicting a blockbuster 2nd half like Ray is, but using persistence to forecast months (or years in the case of the March example) in advance is lazy and quite often wrong. If we had a static climate it would have more merit. Well you are always one of the first to critique and criticize those enthusiasts that put forth an actual winter forecast with numbers, yet never submit one yourself . So it's kind of a Saturday evening QB until you put yourself out there as others do to be judged , right or wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 i very well maybe wrong and perhaps Kevin will be right, but its just too early to make that proclamation, or even favor one camp over another because we have each verified well to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I have never seen Will do anything but applaud seasonal efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) tweeted at 5:15 PM on Tue, Jan 05, 2016: NMME 200mb height anomaly forecast starts to illustrate risk for more high-latitude blocking Feb-March https://t.co/U1ocXElTtA (https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/684498478584721408?s=03) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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