Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Classic False Spring day today...get that higher sun angle with a fairly strong SW breeze and it feels like winter has ended and this could go right through March.

 

Of course that never happens at our latitude on Feb 20th...but the hacky sacks and frisbees are flying today.

 

Well, I'm not anticipating much winter interrupting this sprint to spring this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Transition season starts, and sensible weather therein, begins differently year to year.  Last year, and the year before for that matter...I don't think transition season really started until April..

 

Back in 2012/2013 we didn't have a winter after Halloween and in fact, there was a shrubbery green-up in November when the script flipped back warm.  Maybe that was spring that year - didn't really snow again, and we only had one or two short-lived cool (not cold) snaps that went back into the 50s most days in February.  Than March and April that year were pretty obscenely warm and downright summer like from time to time.   When was spring that year?   This year? 

 

Heh, the models look spring-like to me; particularly S of mid-riff latitudes of the CONUS.  Granted, there's a pretty fantastic cold plume and vortex now on the charts for ..way out there in time, so perhaps that affectation is about to disappear for awhile.  We'll see.  But for me, the nadir of this winter (snow or not) was that arctic outbreak last week..    

 

We'll get cold again...hell, maybe we'll buck the butt f trend and even get some snow, some how, some way... But the "trend" has tipped the other direction in my mind and that combined with ever increasing intensity in solar irradiance now that we are securely passed the solar minimum time of the year, really should on a philosophical level be considered spring's onset.  Just because Meteorology has March 1, and Joulian -based calendar says it's March 21 ...those are human conventions that sometimes agree with reality.  

 

I think there is a climate precedence for early springs in waning warm ENSOs?  I've read that somewhere - I suppose it's a Google moment away...  I won't go so far as to say this is clad early spring, but if that arctic outbreak and tall +PNA don't do more than these operational runs are pounding ass with ... you ain't got much to argue with. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could see you sitting on your Iroc-Z whistling at girls and hoping one of them comes over and pretends it's a Whitesnake video.

 

Whitesnake sucked ... I never liked metal-hair music like that crap.  Was never a concert t-shirt wearin', big haired dweeb that smelled like bubble-gum and marijuana smoke, en route to Poison show with a fifth of yager tucked behind the wheel well in the back of the trunk.. 

 

I was more of the alternative type, but not goth - those idiots are/were the biggest posers of them all.  I was more like Holden Caulfield in the 'Rye, looking over it all from up on a hill side - my form of rebellion simply was silent. True non-conformists don't conform to anything ;)

 

And I certainly was never a whistler - 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Were actually pretty close to normal temps this month. Thought it's been wildly variant. Torch to start, then record cold in the middle and now torch this weekend.

Interesting, good to know. I think I also saw a BOX post that said Boston is slightly above the 30 year average February snowfall so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just reading through this and I can't believe there are people in the NYC forum melting. We haven't had a single warning criteria event and barely any to advisory level. They had more than our season in one storm in places.

I'm looking at coming in at 20% of normal snow here if the trend holds.

The bright side of all this is that it seems highly unlikely us WNE weenies will experience anything this bad again for quite a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And it record cold if that plume pans out ...

Yeah that is serious cold lurking north of the border. An intrusion of that vortex would be quite the whiplash back into winter.

It's interesting the setup showing up for early March...we have this impressive cold pool (PV) sitting in central/eastern Canada reasonably far south thanks to the EPO ridge...however the stubbornly positive NAO and mediocre PNA ridge (it looks less amped early March than next week) allows for some warmth from southern latitudes to try and creep north.

Long story short....could be some impressive gradients to work with. Perhaps the ingredients for a dynamic bomb should the shortwaves cooperate within the backroad of that thermal overlay.

Prob more a post for the pattern thread...but yeah.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah that is serious cold lurking north of the border. An intrusion of that vortex would be quite the whiplash back into winter.

It's interesting the setup showing up for early March...we have this impressive cold pool (PV) sitting in central/eastern Canada reasonably far south thanks to the EPO ridge...however the stubbornly positive NAO and mediocre PNA ridge (it looks less amped early March than next week) allows for some warmth from southern latitudes to try and creep north.

Long story short....could be some impressive gradients to work with. Perhaps the ingredients for a dynamic bomb should the shortwaves cooperate within the backroad of that thermal overlay.

Prob more a post for the pattern thread...but yeah.

 

Ur hinting at what I've been mauling over ...and that's that this could be an interesting bowling season actually... When that mlv gradient relaxes everywhere just a little bit, suddenly we have all these S/W in the flow able to work on thickness gradient with possible closures going overhead... hmm - just a thought

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...