JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There's a few.Not for both parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sneaky 7.5F low Well...somewhat sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And if things don't look favorable on some of the models at 12z, We will rinse and repeat again most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There's a few. I'm sure they are out there and pounce at moments notice. But I just read back a couple pages and it was just one this morning that was trying throw mets under the bus. Anyway, let me stop this train from derailing further. Inland runner or a hugger seems favored now, about all we know atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Might be too banter-ish, but why does it need to be a contest, though? Maybe it's just bc I'm just starting out and am showing the naivety of an amateur, but I'm simply enjoying the roller-coaster of using analogs, models, etc. to forecast the weather.Contest for what? Not sure I'm following. I was saying both things that Scooter aka coastalwx said makes up the irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Here's the irony. You get ridiculed by weenies if you bring up a non-wintry scenario. Then, get a "nobody said this would happen" when you don't say anything. Imagine that. It's because people only want to talk about the snowiest solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Here's the irony. You get ridiculed by weenies if you bring up a non-wintry scenario. Then, get a "nobody said this would happen" when you don't say anything. Imagine that. You won't get flack from me. The sooner we all acknowledge the seasonal tenor, the better. It really is an outstanding forecasting metric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This is why we have a model thread at least. To keep the emotionally attached from 174 hours out in one place. Kevin, repeat after me before sleep every night and you'll have a more peaceful experience: "Synoptics can change 7 days out" "Synoptics can change 7 days out" "Synoptics can change 7 day out" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Contest for what? Not sure I'm following. I was saying both things that Scooter aka coastalwx said makes up the irony. It does frustrate me when mets or anyone for that matter, sort of gets crap for talking about scenarios that might not be snowy or wintry. It makes me just not want to even bring it up. Regardless, I don't see why the interior needs to be heading for a marble quarry in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It does frustrate me when mets or anyone for that matter, sort of gets crap for talking about scenarios that might not be snowy or wintry. It makes me just not want to even bring it up. Regardless, I don't see why the interior needs to be heading for a marble quarry in VT. Yes I understand that point better than the "nobody said this could happen" part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Everyone jumped on me for saying bet the streak but this has been the pattern this winter. There is no denying it is very worrysome at best. if the GFS track verifies I think you lose even the most optimistic NNE posters like myself . I'm with you. It all blows. Gotta know when to fold 'em. Will and Scott did a great job with the seasonal NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And there was/is a chance that could happen, But I'm giving this another couple days before passing judgement on it, Nothing says it can't go the other way as well lol how often do rainers at this time frame trend to snowstorms? maybe 10% of the time at best ? Maybe ORH has some statistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yes I understand that point better than the "nobody said this could happen" part. You see that indirectly from panic in Tolland now and then. Anyways, hopefully it's not a dud for the interior. I was hoping Monday morning would produce a couple of inches, but my confidence on that is lowered too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 At least the weeklies look good!!!! Look at that GGW NAO ridge by week 8!! We'll be measuring the fog in feet on opening day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Here's the irony. You get ridiculed by weenies if you bring up a non-wintry scenario. Then, get a "nobody said this would happen" when you don't say anything. Imagine that. Remember: the only person here beyond reproach is me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm with you. It all blows. Gotta know when to fold 'em. Will and Scott did a great job with the seasonal NAO. Skepticism won out on the -NAO forecasts. I didn't actually forecast the NAO but was just skeptical of these negative signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Right. I didn't think it would go into Cleveland. But there wasn't a reason why it couldn't go into SNE and still be a wet system. It's early still. I think it's curtains for me, but interior is still in the game for some sort of snow or mix. We'll see what 12z does. I didn't mean to call anyone out or say no-one thought warmer solutions..but let's be fair here..the tenor and gist of 98% of the posts from mets and weenies the last few days was that this was likely to be a wintry system even for SNE. I understand synoptics can change. They always do. But this really happened quickly. This wasn't a gradual thing where it went from looking like snow to an icy mix trending as rain or something like that. This went from snow/ice/winter storm almost likely to predominately rain in basically 1 fell swoop. Shame on me I guess for not thinking the UKMET solution had any merit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Isn't that just the weather? Personally I'm excited at the storm that the models are showing snow or no snow. Awww.....you're young and still normal. How cute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Skepticism won out on the -NAO forecasts. I didn't actually forecast the NAO but was just skeptical of these negative signals. You know what I mean......your overall idea was good. I argued tooth and nail and was wrong. QBO FTW. I was only calling for a modest seasonal NAO, but even that was bad. What is the current DJFM reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Here's the irony. You get ridiculed by weenies if you bring up a non-wintry scenario. Then, get a "nobody said this would happen" when you don't say anything. Imagine that.can you do us all a favor and just say Kevin instead of weenies because nobody else ridicules you. I see you and Ryan say this a lot when it really is only Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 can you do us all a favor and just say Kevin instead of weenies because nobody else ridicules you. I see you and Ryan say this a lot when it really is only Kevin Cut the BS steve . Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You see that indirectly from panic in Tolland now and then. Anyways, hopefully it's not a dud for the interior. I was hoping Monday morning would produce a couple of inches, but my confidence on that is lowered too. Monday was always garbage in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And unless you actually looked at the models it's not rain for everyone, Some are going to have frozen precip issues with this one, Models have had this look almost every run, But it's not rain to Canada like some may lead you to believe Stay tuned for 12z. WeenieTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Stay tuned for 12z. WeenieTV Same time, Same channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Cut the BS steve . Seriouslyit's the truth 4 people before me just said it. Unhinged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 IMBY, this was '94-'95...hands down. '06-'07 was in another league....much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Young, yes. Normal? No. No no no. Well, its all relative. Welcome to the jungle, .....? Name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Everyone jumped on me for saying bet the streak but this has been the pattern this winter. There is no denying it is very worrysome at best. if the GFS track verifies I think you lose even the most optimistic NNE posters like myself . You also took some lumps when you said Feb would be no better then what has happen so far this winter. Great call by you. Even The NWS saw the writing on the wall up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 it's the truth 4 people before me just said it. Unhinged You always have to butt your nose in and get your opinions in whenever there's any issues or controversy. This has nothing to do with you. There was no reason for you to make that post or bring up my name. But you felt you needed to get in the middle as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm certainly do feel as though what happened here has besmirched the name met of any met around here. All you can do is examine the synoptic layout that is modeled, and practice good meteorology. They all did that, but seasons, like professional sports teams, have flawed DNA. This one most certainly does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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