40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 chaos involves perturbed process, if perturbed of course. Steve, that was an immense anomaly last year.....anomalies of that magnitude are inherently difficult to replicate give the same circumstances. I'm not saying we wouldn't see a great deal of snow given the same pattern, but 90" in 20 days....'cmon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Happy hour in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Happy hour in the banter thread.we should be talking temps I know,sorry for the diversion. Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 we should be talking temps I know,sorry for the diversion. Torch! PVD with a +8 today. Pretty torchy by my standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 PVD with a +8 today. Pretty torchy by my standard.impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 chaos is a human construct to explain the unexplained. We will never be able to know or guess what the outcome would be if all processes are replicated. We can guess what would change but it's virtually impossible. In fact the opposite could happen, we may have had 135 inches if chaos prevailed. I totally understand what you mean The anamoly was never seen in our lifetimes so we perceive it as virtually impossible, but would it replicate. We will never be able to answer PFs question. We can guess. Correct, because chance/luck/chaos whatever you want to call it causes minute changes that in weather can have a big impact. You've been surprising me lately, Ginxy...first not liking the use of statistics in forecasting, and now not seeing how chance/chaos/luck goes into how very similar long wave patterns can play out vastly different because of something as simple as a Scooter Streak. Think about repeating last February...you could have everything literally identical except for some dry air pockets in the snow growth zone and all the sudden those high-ratio storm totals get cut in half. I would file something like that (dry air pocket in the snow growth zone) under chance/chaos/luck. You have everything else lined up exactly perfectly but there's some small minute thing that causes a big difference in sensible weather. Anyway, could go back and forth forever I suppose, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 PVD with a +8 today. Pretty torchy by my standard. Speaking of torchy stuff...I did see on BTV's social media that Burlington has not yet had a sub-zero temperature this winter. The only two winters that made it to the end of January without a sub-zero temperature in BTV are 2001-2002 and 1931-1932. February 1932 saw sub-zero cold, while 2001-2002 is the only year in 130+ years of record without a sub-zero temperature for the duration of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Speaking of torchy stuff...I did see on BTV's social media that Burlington has not yet had a sub-zero temperature this winter. The only two winters that made it to the end of January without a sub-zero temperature in BTV are 2001-2002 and 1931-1932. February 1932 saw sub-zero cold, while 2001-2002 is the only year in 130+ years of record without a sub-zero temperature for the duration of the winter. 0.8F for my seasonal low. Early Jan. Very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 We're talking past eachother...or more accurately, the rest of us are talking right past Steve and he's talking past us. We're defining a "pattern" as the longwave pattern. Not shortwave. Steve seems to be defining the pattern as all of them. So yeah, of course if you get the EXACT same shortwaves buried within the longwave pattern as last year, then you would get the same EXACT result. Duh. I don't think the rest of us are arguing that. We're arguing that the same longwave pattern would almost never produce that result again because the shortwaves embedded within them would be different due to atmospheric chaos...some convective eddy over Shanghai might produce a thunderstorm 2 miles east of last year if it happened again because maybe their rush hour traffic is less intense the next time, therefore downstream in the Pacific the shortwave intensifies later and now instead of phasing with the northern stream on January 26th, it misses or phases later and our blizzard whiffs wide right....or maybe it produces a taint event that jackpots powderfreak on February 2nd instead of the perfectly timed redevelopment into a pseudo miller B. That's atmospheric chaos within the more stable longwave regime...everything would be very similar except the timing of those shortwaves because such small changes upstream can have amplified effects downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 You could have the same pattern 100 times and still not see 100" in three weeks.Thank you that's all I meant!chaos involves perturbed process, if perturbed of course.Physical reality is that of the quantum world - everything is perturbed. Sucks because it makes so little sense intuitively but that's the way our best science understands it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 0.8F for my seasonal low. Early Jan. Very meh I had 15 mornings below zero last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I had 15 mornings below zero last winter. Probably similar here. I think -18 was my coldest which is close to my coldest since I've paid attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I had 15 mornings below zero last winter.still can't believe I only averaged 15 degrees last Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Probably similar here. I think -18 was my coldest which is close to my coldest since I've paid attention Yup. Checked my calendar and Wunderground site nearby (Davis) -18.1 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 There is no such physical process called luck. Luck is a human trait by definition. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 chaos is a human construct to explain the unexplained. We will never be able to know or guess what the outcome would be if all processes are replicated. We can guess what would change but it's virtually impossible. In fact the opposite could happen, we may have had 135 inches if chaos prevailed. I totally understand what you mean The anamoly was never seen in our lifetimes so we perceive it as virtually impossible, but would it replicate. We will never be able to answer PFs question. We can guess. Well, you think whatever you wish. My mind is made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Steve arguing just to argue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Maybe it's all about the moon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Did he delete some posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Amazing to look at this graph from last Feb. What an epic month for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Amazing to look at this graph from last Feb. What an epic month for cold. Just get precipitation and it will snow. Worry about cold later.I've been told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Amazing to look at this graph from last Feb. What an epic month for cold. Yes so incredibly anomalous in so many different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Just get precipitation and it will snow. Worry about cold later. I've been told. The cold is coming again hopefully the precipitation will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The cold is coming again hopefully the precipitation will followTroughing in the east tends to bring both. That's the silly part of the whole argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Troughing in the east tends to bring both. That's the silly part of the whole argument.nice looking hemispheric evolution. Has a future look of good periods for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The Midwest Blizzard from Colorado to Iowa will be fun personally to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 The Midwest Blizzard from Colorado to Iowa will be fun personally to followF them! If I can't have any snow, I don't want anyone else to have snow either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 man looking at that firehose from the Pacific hit CA is amazing...I would love to live somewhere that had storms that lasted for days and snow was always measured in feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 man looking at that firehose from the Pacific hit CA is amazing...I would love to live somewhere that had storms that lasted for days and snow was always measured in feet!Eric is at the airport on his way. Jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yes so incredibly anomalous in so many different ways. Easily my coldest month since moving here in 1998, nearly 2F colder than Jan 2004, and yet the month's coldest morning (-25) is merely tied for 15th coldest minimum here. It was the near-constant cold more than the extreme cold that was most noteworthy. The month's other extreme was its 17.7-to-1 ratio for snow/LE. Next highest is 14.5-to-1 in Jan 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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