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Banter your New Years resolutions

dendrite

By dendrite,
in New England

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WhiteLawns

WhiteLawns

Posted
Posted

Haha I actually have been there this past fall...not a whole lot to do in Monson, Mass except the brewery. Be prepared to stand in line to get anything though, place is blowing up in popularity.

Go tour the old Tornado path that's still easily visible on parts of RT 2 between that area and Sturbridge.

I arrived in monson about 15 mins after the tornado went through to help with emergency services (im an EMT).

They got hit really hard. Seeing that church steeple knocked down really gave you a sense of the power of the storm. Oh and the house that made it to the other side of the road... 

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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I grew up in North Jersey, and though it's been 43 years since I moved to Maine, I think it was the 1960 census in which NJ passed RI as the most densely populated state - Jersey's always had lots of people. However, I don't ever recall stores being stripped pre-storm, and especially none remaining stripped half a week after the last flakes. My years in NJ included 3 storms in the 24" range, 3/56, 3/58, and 2/61, plus about a half dozen in the 15-20" range. That last 2-footer fell atop a 20"+ snowpack and brought depths into the 40s over much of NNJ outside of places within 10-15 miles of NYC, yet we never saw the empty shelves so frequently seen today as a result of big snowstorms. Whether folks kept more non-perishables around, or otherwise prepared better (or whether this is just a "Get off my lawn!" comment), I can't say.

Yea stores are never empty and crews were plowing throughout the storm . Hell my wife drove to a local store during the storm .snow stopped Saturday night at 9 pm and the next morning most streets were black top . 96 and 93 where the only storms that really slowed things up for a day otherwise most towns do fine . Inner cities is a different animal since everyone parks and the streets and plows have a single lane to plow and people constantly throw all the snow back on the roads .

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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oh i suspect they're real - no doubt.  that next sentence said, "...Certainly more than just seems..." 

 

i wonder what the straight up numbers show comparing decades...  my father spun yarns growing up about apocalyptic snow events in the 1950's and 60's where he grew up in Michigan.  i wonder how pervasive that was for that matter...   

 

but... 20 to 30" snow events are a particularly unique breed.  i don't ...well, i'll leave it at that.   but i have a handfull of 24" 's in my life's experiences and all but one happened in the last 10 years.  i don't recall my father putting actual snow totals in inches on the big events for last century.  

 

could also be a part of global climate change, too...

This is my view, but I'll leave it at that.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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oh i suspect they're real - no doubt. that next sentence said, "...Certainly more than just seems..."

i wonder what the straight up numbers show comparing decades... my father spun yarns growing up about apocalyptic snow events in the 1950's and 60's where he grew up in Michigan. i wonder how pervasive that was for that matter...

but... 20 to 30" snow events are a particularly unique breed. i don't ...well, i'll leave it at that. but i have a handfull of 24" 's in my life's experiences and all but one happened in the last 10 years. i don't recall my father putting actual snow totals in inches on the big events for last century.

could also be a part of global climate change, too...

global climate change

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The average annual total NESIS score from 2009-10 through this year is over 3x higher than the average of all other years going back to 1956. 15-20% doesn't account for that magnitude of difference.

 

Yet only one storm (last week) is even in the top 15.

 

It's been an pretty crazy period, but hard to attribute it to any single variable.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Yet only one storm (last week) is even in the top 15.

 

It's been an pretty crazy period, but hard to attribute it to any single variable.

 

I wasn't trying to attribute it solely to global warming. The fact that only one storm was in the top 15, but the overall sum of the storms is 3.5x higher than average, says that it's not so much that storms have gotten bigger, it's that mid to large sized storms have become more frequent. That, or they really didn't track them very well in past decades. You probably know the answer to this, were there a lot of "NESIS 1" type storms that are just not included in NESIS from the 50s through the 2000s?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I wasn't trying to attribute it solely to global warming. The fact that only one storm was in the top 15, but the overall sum of the storms is 3.5x higher than average, says that it's not so much that storms have gotten bigger, it's that mid to large sized storms have become more frequent. That, or they really didn't track them very well in past decades. You probably know the answer to this, were there a lot of "NESIS 1" type storms that are just not included in NESIS from the 50s through the 2000s?

 

I have to believe there are...there's a lot of storms that must have scored well (like March 1994, March 2001, T-day 1971, December 1975, etc) but didn't get on the list because they didn't hit the big I-95 cities hard...but in more recent years they have included storms like February 1-2, 2011 which didn't hit I-95 but score high because they crushed Chicago and other Midwest cities while giving very little snowfall to the northeast I-95 cities outside of a 10-spot in BOS.

 

It's an interesting study...there's def been more I-95 hits in the past 5 years, but it is hard to say if that is flukish or something to keep expecting for the next 5 years or whatever.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's a slippery slope when using snowfall trends to justify anything. Getting accurate measurements is bad enough, and then throw on top of that...measuring changes and inconsistencies. Good luck.

 

is that a bad pun :) 

 

...no, no one in this conversation (this page) was justifying anything.. it was merely conjecture centered around there being more frequent events where snow totals were n of 20" in recent decades comparatively.  nothing more...

 

but now that you mentioned it;  actually, sorry to say but the climate modeling has been saying ...for decades, that heavier precipitation events would become more frequent as the air holds more and more water vapor and so forth.  

 

i think increasing heavy snow frequency might apply - just a guess...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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is that a bad pun :)

 

...no, no one in this conversation (this page) was justifying anything.. it was merely conjecture centered around there being more frequent events where snow totals were n of 20" in recent decades comparatively.  nothing more...

 

but now that you mentioned it;  actually, sorry to say but the climate modeling has been saying ...for decades, that heavier precipitation events would become more frequent as the air holds more and more water vapor and so forth.  

 

i think increasing heavy snow frequency might apply - just a guess...

 

People can use that as a metric. My point is that using snowfall is not a very good metric to gauge global warming here.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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People can use that as a metric. My point is that using snowfall is not a very good metric to gauge global warming here.

 

i don't know how you can logically disconnect snow from that discussion - but 'not a very good one' not sure why not.

 

snow is a type of a precipitation event.  buuuuut, i tell you what, this modeling thread is now officially derailed and i feel partially responsible.  perhaps the discussion could be rejoined in some climate thread somewhere...  word! sorry

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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is that a bad pun :)

...no, no one in this conversation (this page) was justifying anything.. it was merely conjecture centered around there being more frequent events where snow totals were n of 20" in recent decades comparatively. nothing more...

but now that you mentioned it; actually, sorry to say but the climate modeling has been saying ...for decades, that heavier precipitation events would become more frequent as the air holds more and more water vapor and so forth.

i think increasing heavy snow frequency might apply - just a guess...

do you know if for the last decade during the increase in these heavy snow winters if precip totals are AN? LOTS of high ratio storms can skew,see 2015. I agree we have seen an increase here in SNE this decade but NNE has seen a decrease. It's localized on a scale of a globe. Higher precip events have occurred but aren't unusual in our history. But there is a climate change forum here.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Tippy. My point is that you have fairly high accuracy techniques at gauging trends like rainfall and temperature data. We can record those with fairly high accuracy all things considered. When you have snowfall and the varying ways of measuring, along with inaccuracies and inconsistencies...I think people should be careful here.  Sure you can perhaps get an idea of subtle trends....but snowfall data IMO does not even fall in the same category as getting good data from rainfall or temperatures.  

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