CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 So a normal Dec is now wet? The drought has continued. Check the monitor December was like .8" AN even at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 December was like .8" AN even at BDL. Soaker .8 more than normal. Floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 And going into a Nina summer..it's going to be a very hot summer..Hopefully there's enough convection, but facing the prospects of big time heat this summer..we'd better hope the promised pattern turns wet You and your Nina summer, meh. Give me a weak Nino year anytime and its precip loaded. The super Nino up here precip wise has been meh number of storm wise and precip wise. Even if we did get the full blizzard last week its been pretty void of storms. Give me a Jan 78 with 11 " of precip any day even with rainers, much much more exciting. I learned a lot this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Soaker .8 more than normal. Floods That's by a fair amount. Contrast that to January departure. It comes to near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You just missed out on a 2"+ QPF monster. **** happens. 1 storm dude? not what I mean and I did have 7.5 inches of snow and .63 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Biggest disappointment of this winter has been the lack of consistent storms, that has nothing to do with luck. Hopefully that script flips. Yeah, I was thinking much more active...its been a very quiet January overall aside from 1 recent mid-Atlantic storm. Its not like even moderate 1/2" QPF events have been rolling down the pipeline every 5 days or so, which is sort of what I expected this winter. Running about 50% of normal QPF so far in January. December was wet but not white. Actually the December numbers are astonishing: 7.78" of total liquid at 4,000ft and only 14.0" of snow. How you get almost 8" of QPF in December at 4,000ft near the Canadian border and only come out with 14" of snow is some special pattern, lol. Normal is around 6.75" water and 48" of snow for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 So a normal Dec is now wet? The drought has continued. Check the monitor Perhaps you missed the memo from Joe D of Box, its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You and your Nina summer, meh. Give me a weak Nino year anytime and its precip loaded. The super Nino up here precip wise has been meh number of storm wise and precip wise. Even if we did get the full blizzard last week its been pretty void of storms. Give me a Jan 78 with 11 " of precip any day even with rainers, much much more exciting. I learned a lot this year To go thru a snowless Dec, 2 or 3 light events spaced out a week or more apart in Jan and then nothing thru the first 7-10 days of Feb..And then hope that great looking pattern produces as we head into mid Feb..that's not something I'd ever sign up for. I'd take a whole winter of nickels and dimes so we had snow to look forward to and things to track . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 1 storm dude? not what I mean and I did have 7.5 inches of snow and .63 qpf Well you can't always expect a parade. Sometimes it's one big one with smaller other ones. I agree that it has not been active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Perhaps you missed the memo from Joe D of Box, its wrong We believe he's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I hope we get into deep drought discussion during our climo driest time of the year... "the last thing I will worry bout during super Nino is precipitation" ad nasueum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You just missed out on a 2"+ QPF monster. **** happens. Yeah but it hasn't been a Nino constant barrage of storms. That's one event. Comparing frequency to other Super Nino's and it just hasn't had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Dec and jan have been quite dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 We believe he's wrong OIU OIU no speak french. ASOS buckets FTL. wonder how much reservoirs, rivers ground water fill in a drought. The hydrology in your head is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Dec was actually driest on record lol. Still managed normal snow. We typically have a lot of messy storms. Not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah but it hasn't been a Nino constant barrage of storms. That's one event. Comparing frequency to other Super Nino's and it just hasn't had that. Just expressing my disappointment in my own thoughts. I fully expected a very volatile active winter, maybe its time to ramp it up. Whats the probability of that? ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Close the shades until 2/5 or so. Or open them and enjoy sping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah but it hasn't been a Nino constant barrage of storms. That's one event. Comparing frequency to other Super Nino's and it just hasn't had that. Yes I did say it hasn't been active. But, that QPF monster shows you the potential of those types of storms. If that hit, would the sentiment be the same? I don't think SNE would be arguing lack of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Close the shades until 2/5 or so. Or open them and enjoy sping! January is a spring month now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yes I did say it hasn't been active. But, that QPF monster shows you the potential of those types of storms. If that hit, would the sentiment be the same? I don't think SNE would be arguing lack of activity. Yeah so you know it hasn't been active, so I guess we aren't arguing anything, lol. Sentiment could still be the same, you get hit with one whopper it doesn't mean its an active year. Just comparing to 1997-98 (the last Super Nino), the activity level is quite interesting. In that year going through the records its hard to find even a 3-day stretch without a precipitation event in those three months. Most of the days without precipitation back in 1997-98 were scattered about, among like 5-day long stretches of precipitation. This Super Nino is giving 3-4 day dry stretches per week. Nov 1997... 8 days without precip (20 days this year)Dec 1997...10 days without precip (13 days this year) Jan 1998....6 days without precip (14 days this year so far) Be interesting to see postmortem the reason for the lack of activity with such a warm Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 You just missed out on a 2"+ QPF monster. **** happens. We had our 2" monster about two weeks ago - too bad it was in the 40s at the time. Loggers are still finding springholes in the most unexpected places since that torch-deluge. We've already reached normal precip for January, which is a good thing as the gfs next 10 days is scattered flurries/rainshowers, with another rainstorm at the end (in Feb.) Winter 2015-16 in NNE - catch the excitement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 We had our 2" monster about two weeks ago - too bad it was in the 40s at the time. Loggers are still finding springholes in the most unexpected places since that torch-deluge. We've already reached normal precip for January, which is a good thing as the gfs next 10 days is scattered flurries/rainshowers, with another rainstorm at the end (in Feb.) Winter 2015-16 in NNE - catch the excitement! 99 problems but a drought ain't one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah so you know it hasn't been active, so I guess we aren't arguing anything, lol. Sentiment could still be the same, you get hit with one whopper it doesn't mean its an active year. Just comparing to 1997-98 (the last Super Nino), the activity level is quite interesting. In that year going through the records its hard to find even a 3-day stretch without a precipitation event in those three months. Most of the days without precipitation back in 1997-98 were scattered about, among like 5-day long stretches of precipitation. This Super Nino is giving 3-4 day dry stretches per week. Nov 1997... 8 days without precip (20 days this year)Dec 1997...10 days without precip (13 days this year) Jan 1998....6 days without precip (14 days this year so far) Be interesting to see postmortem the reason for the lack of activity with such a warm Pacific. Give me a weak nino any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not what I expected at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not what I expected at allI thought someone said its been wet though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah so you know it hasn't been active, so I guess we aren't arguing anything, lol. Sentiment could still be the same, you get hit with one whopper it doesn't mean its an active year. Just comparing to 1997-98 (the last Super Nino), the activity level is quite interesting. In that year going through the records its hard to find even a 3-day stretch without a precipitation event in those three months. Most of the days without precipitation back in 1997-98 were scattered about, among like 5-day long stretches of precipitation. This Super Nino is giving 3-4 day dry stretches per week. Nov 1997... 8 days without precip (20 days this year)Dec 1997...10 days without precip (13 days this year) Jan 1998....6 days without precip (14 days this year so far) Be interesting to see postmortem the reason for the lack of activity with such a warm Pacific. there were several posts I made back in October showing some dry Nino years, the STJ in those years took a hard right off the MA. I think NNE has an historical tie in to being pretty dry in Nino years along with the Ohio River valley if I remember right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 there were several posts I made back in October showing some dry Nino years, the STJ in those years took a hard right off the MA. I think NNE has an historical tie in to being pretty dry in Nino years along with the Ohio River valley if I remember right. I thought we were at least weakly wet in a Nino composite. But who knows...I'm not even sure what our "best pattern" is. For SNE it seems weak Nino's take the cake. But it seems most patterns we talk about are sort of weak signal in NNE with higher signal for good or bad in areas south. Maybe its the lower variance up here that most patterns can produce and it dampens out any definitive signal, but there's never that "aha moment" where a given pattern is a NNE pattern. Maybe its weak La Nina or something? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I thought we were at least weakly wet in a Nino composite. But who knows...I'm not even sure what our "best pattern" is. For SNE it seems weak Nino's take the cake. But it seems most patterns we talk about are sort of weak signal in NNE with higher signal for good or bad in areas south. Maybe its the lower variance up here that most patterns can produce and it dampens out any definitive signal, but there's never that "aha moment" where a given pattern is a NNE pattern. Maybe its weak La Nina or something? lol. Do you do well when there is an active northern jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Do you do well when there is an active northern jet? I guess? Depends on where it is though. If its south and spinning up Miller B's at the benchmark then its just dry and cold. We are looking for a neutral trough axis over the Great Lakes region...A neutral trough axis over the East Coastline is too far east. This is a composite done by Lyndon State College department of meteorology for 12-24 hours prior to a major interior (NY state, western MA, VT, NH) snowstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I can get used to days like today again. Low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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