ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 And from here it's a slippery slope to just saying "let's just use WPC snowfall and we won't have this issue." That would probably be even worse. The lack of local knowledge often shows in the snowfall probs from WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One must acknowledge that this winter vs last winter to date: this one is way warmer and more extreme o. The rat side. My guess is the second half is "less cold" vs progs. Doesn't mean it won't snow though. Snow is the same, though...with ample opportunity for blocking ahead. Probably more ao/nao, rather than the extreme EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I love the idea of probabilistic ranges of potential snowfall, but we're not doing it right. I don't claim to know the best way either, but this isn't working for me. And from here it's a slippery slope to just saying "let's just use WPC snowfall and we won't have this issue." We've seen that with the snow probability forecasts before - they make almost no sense. From 10th to 90th percentile to geographic breakdown there are times where they seem to add negative value to decision making because they're just not quite right. I'm trying to remember a few of the situations that were a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Snow is the same, though. No we had about 5x the amount to date last year or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 No we had about 5x the amount to date last year or more. Well, we had that one significant event just before the blizzard, but we are about to score a similar event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 No we had about 5x the amount to date last year or more. Yeah the pre-Tday event gave decent snow to many. Though Dec snowfall was very similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah the pre-Tday event gave decent snow to many. Though Dec snowfall was very similar to last year. Yea, that one, too. I'll bet amounts are very comparable in 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 didn't realize you moved to the GL, dumb Yea, I didn't get that, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 To be fair I think Ryan was just commenting he doesn't see a storm within like 7 days. The weekend one continued to look wet rather than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 To be fair I think Ryan was just commenting he doesn't see a storm within like 7 days. The weekend one continued to look wet rather than white. It doesn't look mainly wet in our area and is steadily trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 We've seen that with the snow probability forecasts before - they make almost no sense. From 10th to 90th percentile to geographic breakdown there are times where they seem to add negative value to decision making because they're just not quite right. I'm trying to remember a few of the situations that were a mess. I still think giving a range that is the best guess, is the way to go. Nobody gets the max and min stuff. Just keep it simple for the public. If there is truly an uncertainty, a wider than normal range conveys that. We are getting good enough to give a range that is fairly accurate. Covering your azz because a hilltop may get an inch more than 99.5% of other locations seems to do more harm then good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That would probably be even worse. The lack of local knowledge often shows in the snowfall probs from WPC. Resolution is an issue too. They can't get detail into the coastlines very well. But I really think about the situations where they suffer from model volatility. They use a very blended approach, which is good, but sometimes you can get the yo-yos from 00z to 12z. And when that happens WPC doesn't think much about the consequences of moving the snow axis from BOS to ORH and back. Huge ramifications for preparations when it's supposed to snow a foot in BOS versus 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 To be fair I think Ryan was just commenting he doesn't see a storm within like 7 days. The weekend one continued to look wet rather than white. except the convo was with Buffalo weather about the LES and the 77 analog for epic totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I have not yet experienced a rain to snow event since I moved up here...I was wondering if anyone who has lived in this area of Western CT could give some local experience on how they tend to produce here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hey where is "picks"? Anyone hear to his whereabouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I have not yet experienced a rain to snow event since I moved up here...I was wondering if anyone who has lived in this area of Western CT could give some local experience on how they tend to produce here... Less than if it was all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hey where is "picks"? Anyone hear to his whereabouts? Last he posted he was off to Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Last he posted he was off to Wyoming. Thanks B. I asked cause he usually posts in the winter. I see the squalls closing in quick!!! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yea, that one, too. I'll bet amounts are very comparable in 6 days. Had 40.7" thru Jan 11 last year, 9.7" this year. I could see that increasing to 25" total in 6 days if all goes right; getting to 40", naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Had 40.7" thru Jan 11 last year, 9.7" this year. I could see that increasing to 25" total in 6 days if all goes right; getting to 40", naso much. We aren't even close to last year...this is true ratter territory this year. 42" on the season at 3,000ft to date. Last year we had 52" in Novie alone. It's similar in the surrounding towns too. It's worse than 2006-2007 or 1982-83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 After the Euro.. This winter is definitely getting to some folks on the board. #Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well nothing like a 2 inch snow total through mid january, but I'm not melting this year after my near melt 1 week before the craziness ensued last yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The funny thing is, many of the seasonal outlooks actually had Maine looking like one of the worst spots to be in New England, with the 500 mb pattern and the dominant southern jet stream flow creating greater precipitation anomalies across the southern United States up into the mid-atlantic and southern New England, but up to this point in time,it looks like this is a strong El Nino that is going to deliver in Maine, at least relative to the rest of the region up to this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I always find that many times, in these long range seasonal forecasts, the places that are forecast to do the worst, end up doing just fine. Irony at it's finest. Like the West...it was said they would have very lil winter this year on average...they've been killing it like Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The funny thing is, many of the seasonal outlooks actually had Maine looking like one of the worst spots to be in New England, with the 500 mb pattern and the dominant southern jet stream flow creating greater precipitation anomalies across the southern United States up into the mid-atlantic and southern New England, but up to this point in time,it looks like this is a strong El Nino that is going to deliver in Maine, at least relative to the rest of the region up to this point in time. See how the progression has been down the Maine coast, yea our winter will set in. I have no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here is some weather info I thought was very interesting. A little community in Nunavut called Pangnirtung had a high tempature of 6.8C yersterday. It was their third highest January temp since record keeping started there in 1925. The normal high is -23C and normal low is -31C. Can you imagine the meltdowns if they had a weather forum...lol. They also had 48hrs straight of winds gusting over 60mph along with the mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Here is some weather info I thought was very interesting. A little community in Nunavut called Pangnirtung had a high tempature of 6.8C yersterday. It was their third highest January temp since record keeping started there in 1925. The normal high is -23C and normal low is -31C. Can you imagine the meltdowns if they had a weather forum...lol. They also had 48hrs straight of winds gusting over 60mph along with the mild air. Eek would approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well congratulations Boston in grabbing GE headquarters from Connecticut. In other news, The Hartford Yard Goats will be playing their first 17 games on the road this season because of cost overruns and delays associated with moving the New Britain Rock Cats to Hartford and trying to build a new stadium, or should I stay stealing them from New Britain. Incompetency at its finest here in the great Constitution state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Congrats on the first named subtropical storm of the '16 season. James predicts STS Alex will top out at cat 5, cross the Atlantic, phase with Monday's s/w and erase Cape Cod, Mass., USA from existence. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the weekend storm turning to crap is the atmospheric karma you get from that corny thread title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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