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January 2016 Obs


Isopycnic

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Made it down to a respectable 26 at CAE this morning  :)   
 
I'm enjoying the normal to slightly above temps. My fall clothes were starting to get jealous of my flip flops  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
955 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
PROMOTE ANOTHER DRY FORECAST TODAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL SPILL
MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST BACK TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY
ENCROACHING ON THE MIDLANDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE AREA LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT: MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...IN THE UPPER 40S. INCREASED
MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
LOWS
...IN THE 30S.

MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING A WEAK WEDGE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...BUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS CONCERNED...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL EAST AND OFF THE COAST. KEEPING
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST.
THE MODELS DEPICTED A WARM FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL POPS
TRENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEPER/STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MORE
MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN AND LESS MOISTURE
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED LITTLE MOISTURE WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUESDAY AS WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ANY
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE VFR REALM. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. NO FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO MIXING AND
INCREASED CLOUDS.
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Made it down to a respectable 26 at CAE this morning   :)   
 
I'm enjoying the normal to slightly above temps. My fall clothes were starting to get jealous of my flip flops  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

955 AM EST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST

COAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL

MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL

PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH DRIER

AND COOLER AIR RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL

PROMOTE ANOTHER DRY FORECAST TODAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL SPILL

MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST BACK TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY

ENCROACHING ON THE MIDLANDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL

BECOME MORE NEUTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE

40S ACROSS THE AREA LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT: MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN

FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN

TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...IN THE UPPER 40S. INCREASED

MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL

LOWS...IN THE 30S.

MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. ACROSS

THE CAROLINAS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD EAST

OF THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING A WEAK WEDGE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE

REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN

CLOUDS...BUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS CONCERNED...IT APPEARS AS IF

THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL EAST AND OFF THE COAST. KEEPING

FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL

REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY

NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST.

THE MODELS DEPICTED A WARM FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO

THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL POPS

TRENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN

INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEPER/STRONGER

UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MORE

MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN AND LESS MOISTURE

SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED LITTLE MOISTURE WITH NORTHWEST

FLOW MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TUESDAY AS WEAK

UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES

GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID-

ATLANTIC TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS

WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ANY

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE VFR REALM. WINDS WILL

CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 KNOTS OR

LESS. NO FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO MIXING AND

INCREASED CLOUDS.

 

I hit a bone chilling 16 this morning.  :shiver:

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The little Low is down to 993mb now.

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

325 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An extratropical low pressure system centered about 425 miles west-

southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of gale force winds

and maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Environmental conditions are not

expected to be conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone

formation through the weekend while the low moves east-northeastward

into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions could become

conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical

characteristics while it moves east-southeastward into the eastern

subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. The next

Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by

3 PM EST Friday. For additional information on this system, please

see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

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(Had some road closures due to river flooding in SW Durham--not sure of status now, but Stagecoach near the Southpoint Mall was still closed as of Tuesday night.)

Stagecoach is still closed. The water should receed by Saturday or sunday as long as it doesn't rain a lot on Saturday night.

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Happy January. Good to be back. Had flurries Monday near sunset. Got down to 22 degrees Tuesday morning with the first heavy frost of the season. (Pics below). Wednesday morning saw 14 degrees. Highs in the 30's Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Thursday morning in the 20's, but rain and fog arrived yesterday with a high of 48. Down to 40 this morning with light clouds. Looking forward to a few flakes this coming week, and a ski trip up to Sugar.

 

 

post-8754-0-38440100-1452342602_thumb.jp

post-8754-0-26260400-1452342619_thumb.jp

post-8754-0-82020600-1452342634_thumb.jp

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