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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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All kidding aside, we better keep the south trend going as long as possible. Because the inevitable north trend will commence within the next three or four model cycles. We need to squeeze all the south we can now.

 

So right...I'm just waiting for it.

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From Dr Franklin "I would like to get your thoughts for various parts of the Upstate regarding the late week storm (of course, please post in the other thread)"

 

I will post my thoughts FWIW, though you may not be happy with them and many will probably disagree (Mack, BUd, etc). For tomorrow's system, I think this will be basically a non-event for the upstate. Most of the precip with the disturbance is well north and there looks to be a trailing southern finger of precip. In my observation, these are usually too weak to overcome the TN, GA, and NC mountains plus the down slopping effect. Down-slopping is both a warming and drying process. When airflows down off the escarpment it compresses, warms, and dries out. I don't know all the technical workings of it, but this is basically what it does. Thus the endless times where clippers or NWFS comes all the way down to the state line, hits the escarpment and leaves the upstate with a clear sky. Due to our "special" positioning in the upstate, we experience down-slopping form both NC and GA as their mtns are higher on both sides.

For tomorrow, I wouldn't be suprised to see some flurries or even a shower somewhere in the upstate but I expect very little. And if it doesn't come in till late morning or beyond it may well just be a cold rain. I remember several systems much like this over the past couple of winters, some with very impressive precip fields in N GA but they never made it into the upstate or past Walhalla as they kept drying out. 

 For this weekends system, I just don't see much wintry precip for the upstate. None of the models all week, until today's Euro run (and maybe the CMC) have shown any wintry precip of consequence, and both profile temps and surface temps have been too warm for much of anything. However, eastern parts of the upstate have a much bettter chance as they lose the down slopping effect, being further away from the mtns, and closer to the wedge. Virtually all the snowfall maps we have seen show this in varying degrees, a snowhole over western upstate and NEGA (sorry Lookout) and a "hit" in the eastern upstate over near Gafffney/Rock Hill. So if anyone in the upstate sees anything of consequence I think it would be Spartanburg and East. What I don't buy about this set up for us is the low coming in from TN. Even if it transfers around CHS or SAV the energy would be traveling over us and that would push the cold to our North. We would need this to track much further South in more of a Miller -A track - somewhere closer to the gulf coast. While we have seen some Southern trends, I don't think it will go that far South. As for the wedge, I don't see the progged 1026 or 1028 being strong enough to get the cold this far down. Now if we had a 1035 or 1040 we'd have something to talk about. Despite much of the board experiencing wedges being under progged, I have often experienced the opposite as I remember many times we were supposed to get ice or snow but cold never made it past CLT or so. I think the under progged wedge is probably true for many NC locales, but not for upstate and NEGA locales (can't speak for Lookout, but I get the impression he knows what I am talking about). So unless the initial low trends much further south, I think the upstate is in for a cold miserable rain with possibly a token bit of ice or snow, with probably a little more in our eastern counties. I'd definitely be more excited if this was more of a true Miller-A or if I were north of I-40 or above 2000k. Just my thoughts and I certainly could be very wrong and will be happy if I am  :)

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