McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I love the ignore/block option probably one of the best features on this site. Lmao really saves me a lot of energy reading worthless posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Individual members had some interesting runs, this was one of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well there is your fantasy winter weather on the 18z GFS. I summoned the weenie gods... Jon, on 04 Jan 2016 - 1:57 PM, said: Hopefully...I really want to see an epic SE snowstorm so the negative posts go away, it's kinda depressing to see them when we're in such a good pattern, folks don't know a storm can show up with any run with the amount of energy flying around...hell the strength of the ridge isn't even being modeled consistently the same each run out to 160-180hrs. There's bound to be fireworks on an OP run soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I left Flagstaff after an afternoon wintry wonderland and traveled to Tuba City in preparation for going to the Hopi Reservation tomorrow. It turned to rain, drizzle, and then nothing shortly after we left Flagstaff as we went down a few thousand feet in elevation and descended into the barren desert, but now there's light snow here, though it's not sticking too much and it's above freezing. The soil is so red here than, combined with the lack of vegetation, it reminds me a bit of how the surface of Mars looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I left Flagstaff after an afternoon wintry wonderland and traveled to Tuba City in preparation for going to the Hopi Reservation tomorrow. It turned to rain shortly after we left Flagstaff as we went down a few thousand feet in elevation and descended into the barren desert, but now there's light snow here, though it's not sticking too much and it's above freezing. The soil is so red here than, combined with the lack of vegetation, it reminds me a bit of how the surface of Mars looks. Been to Flagstaff a few times, great little snowy town, the nearby mountains make for great views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Been to Flagstaff a few times, great little snowy town, the nearby mountains make for great views. Yeah, it's one of the snowiest cities in the country (100"+/yr) and isn't even that cold (average high in the low 40s, lows in the upper 10s even this time of year). It would be an awesome place to live for a winter weather weenie like me, haha. I wish I had more time to stay longer in Flagstaff. The Lowell Observatory was cool up in the mountain, and we went to Meteor Crater and Winslow yesterday, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I love the ignore/block option probably one of the best features on this site. Lmao really saves me a lot of energy reading worthless posts.... It's sad that we even have to use it. Sorry we little people weren't around to avoid all moderation back in the "TWC DAYS!" ... most people young enough to say "EASTERNWXDAYS!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Individual members had some interesting runs, this was one of them... That's only 8/9 inches of fantasy snow for me...I'm pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 And Mother Nature just laughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 And Mother Nature just laughs ImageUploadedByTapatalk1451964738.285451.jpg That was good, LOL. I am staying up for the GFS I feel a snowy run coming inside day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm surprised no one has mentioned the system this Wednesday night into Thursday... Nam has temps dropping into the 32-34 range with some light precip overhead. If it's temp profiles are correct or even slightly warm there would be some light freezing rain especially CAD regions. Something to watch as it's much cooler than other models and seems to be picking up on the colder air better. It handled the flurry event today pretty well inside 30 hours btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Rgem and high res NAM both indicate temps falling close to or below freezing from CLT to RDU and points west Wednesday evening into Thursday. At the same time they move a band of light qpf inland into the cold air. With such a dry Arctic airmass moving in tonight and tomorrow potential is there for a light icing event, if they are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I wish I had more time to stay longer in Flagstaff. The Lowell Observatory was cool up in the mountain, and we went to Meteor Crater and Winslow yesterday, as well. For vacation this past summer, I took my wife and children on an eight-day clockwise tour of the northern half of Arizona. Flew into Phoenix, rented a car, and took them to places like Montezuma Castle, Sedona, Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, Four Corners, Canyon de Chelly, Winslow, and Meteor Crater. I've been out there before, but my youngest had never been while my oldest was too young to remember his first trip. Such a gorgeous and varying landscape out there. Our staying overnight at The View in Monument Valley was a highlight to remember. Took a tour from Navajo guide and got some great photos. There are areas out there where you feel like you're on another planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Thats it. Sealed. Wrapped. Pooped on. Hugged. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Rgem and high res NAM both indicate temps falling close to or below freezing from CLT to RDU and points west Wednesday evening into Thursday. At the same time they move a band of light qpf inland into the cold air. With such a dry Arctic airmass moving in tonight and tomorrow potential is there for a light icing event, if they are correct.Is this precip coming in on the SE flow? That hardly ever works out for us. I know your saying it could happen, but in my experience the low clouds get here way sooner and keep temps up, or the moisture in the air with that flow , just moistens the DP too much, and you get 33/34 and drizzle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 4 feet of snow now possible for the San Bernardino mountains in California. Maybe 10-20 feet by the end of the month for some out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 So much for hope and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Is this precip coming in on the SE flow? That hardly ever works out for us. I know your saying it could happen, but in my experience the low clouds get here way sooner and keep temps up, or the moisture in the air with that flow , just moistens the DP too much, and you get 33/34 and drizzle! More of an easterly flow, light overrunning. Wouldn't be much qpf maybe .10-.20 max but it could easily be cold enough for ice. RDU stays at 33-34 but just west of here into cad areas they drop into the 30-32 range and stay there until Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Is this precip coming in on the SE flow? That hardly ever works out for us. I know your saying it could happen, but in my experience the low clouds get here way sooner and keep temps up, or the moisture in the air with that flow , just moistens the DP too much, and you get 33/34 40 and drizzle! fyp mby will be in the upper 40's to 50 when the moisture arrives according to the 06 gfs on meteostar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 fyp mby will be in the upper 40's to 50 when the moisture arrives according to the 06 gfs on meteostar GFS doesn't handle mesoscale features like this well. Take the flurries yesterday in parts of NC as an example, GFS had no indications this would happen. High res models like the NAM, RGEM, WRF and HRRR all picked up on this feature as did the Euro inside 72 hours. Here are the temps for early Thursday with light qpf overhead, very close to some zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 And the GFS is showing the second wave the one to look at is this one which occurs between 21z Wednesday and 12z Thursday. High res models do a good job picking up on little events like these and while its not major a .10-.20 glaze of zr is possible if the NAM/RGEM are correct. Do we have a thread for discussing short term events like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The moisture doesn't get to mby until hr 60....and at that point it's 51 degrees according to the 06gfs on meteostar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kcae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 So much for hope and change. emcgt.png Thanks for posting. It is interesting to note that so far, the models have not been putting out snow for our area, and we have not gotten any to speak of except for 2 dust ups. Since the models still are not putting out snow in the early weeks of this pattern change, there would appear to be some weighting on the models that they are still correct. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's sad that we even have to use it. Sorry we little people weren't around to avoid all moderation back in the "TWC DAYS!" ... most people young enough to say "EASTERNWXDAYS!" Well the fact is an I'm sure many more will agree the sarcasm and trolling gets old after a while. I'm not trying to be rude or start anything it just gets annoying. I'm fine with people trying to learn and ask questions that's what half of it is about. But there's a few that won't even look at a map or even try an learn. They just go around trolling people and its went on for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The moisture doesn't get to mby until hr 60....and at that point it's 51 degrees according to the 06gfs on meteostar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kcae Yes if you believe the GFS, which handles mesoscale events poorly. Here is the high res NAM for the Southeast at hour 54, first the precip then a 2m temp profile. Now 2m temps, I believe your area is around 37? Not cold enough there but much cooler than GFS. Also areas in NC and parts of SC could be at risk for minor ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yes if you believe the GFS, which handles mesoscale events poorly. Here is the high res NAM for the Southeast at hour 54, first the precip then a 2m temp profile. Now 2m temps, I believe your area is around 37? Not cold enough there but much cooler than GFS. Also areas in NC and parts of SC could be at risk for minor ZR. A quick check of bufkit around the area shows 35+ and a sprinkle for most folks http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A quick check of bufkit around the area shows 35 and a sprinkle for most folks http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Yes temps 33-35 verbatim. I'm merely discussing a potential minor ice event which is 1-2 degrees away from being a minor accumulation of zr for some. It may or may not happen but it's worth discussing imo. High res nam puts out up to .25 of qpf in the Raleigh area. If we are 31-32 instead of 33-35 then that would cause issues. It's something people in central and western NC as well as parts of southern VA need to keep an eye on as the high res models are trending colder. Model output can't always be taken verbatim, I've seen them bust even in the short term well to the warm or cold side. All I'm saying is we are very close to a minor ice event here in central and western NC and it's something to keep an eye on and discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There is a lot of good weather talk in the banter section these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Might not be anything, but wouldn't be the first time we had a surprise ice event hear from freezing drizzle. I remember one time in when I was in high school we had a surprise ice event hit the Triangle one morning. Had to be between 88 and 91. The forecast called for drizzle that morning. It felt like drizzle when I went to get on the bus that morning, and remember slipping a bit when I crossed the road. The next thing we knew the bus was stuck because the road was a sheet of ice and it couldn't get up a hill. A deputy from the Durham sheriff's department had to take me home, and there were wrecks all over the place that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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