jshetley Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well GSP says all rain in the upstate except for a little snow at the very end. On to the next one for SC. I'd be willing to bet that by Thursday this storm is rain even for Boone and all the way to DC. The north trend starts tonight and will not reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47658-january-22-23-mid-atlantic-storm-thread-1-no-banter/page-22#entry3873585 That big red puddle is right on top of our Va. farm. Castleton solidly in the 18" hatch on the 12z ens mean. That is pretty sick, Feb 2010 in DC was the most snow I ever saw at one time, remember walking down CT Ave is waist high powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Castleton solidly in the 18" hatch on the 12z ens mean. That is pretty sick, Feb 2010 in DC was the most snow I ever saw at one time, remember walking down CT Ave is waist high powder. If the snow doesn't work out, maybe we can try this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Castleton solidly in the 18" hatch on the 12z ens mean. That is pretty sick, Feb 2010 in DC was the most snow I ever saw at one time, remember walking down CT Ave is waist high powder. I missed that one. There were still three ft. drifts in the pasture 2 weeks later. Not going to miss this one. Curious to see how the F250 will do on Chester's Gap. Making a gear list now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If the snow doesn't work out, maybe we can try this. only if we can do it in the truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I missed that one. There were still three ft. drifts in the pasture 2 weeks later. Not going to miss this one. Curious to see how the F250 will do on Chester's Gap. Making a gear list now. Did you ever post any pics of the beast Fraz? I have a beast myself and making some tough decisions on tires / rims and lift. Tires and brakes are stock and time to be replaced. Its now or never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Did you ever post any pics of the beast Fraz? I have a beast myself and making some tough decisions on tires / rims and lift. Tires and brakes are stock and time to be replaced. Its now or never. I didn't but I will. PM me and I'll help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well GSP says all rain in the upstate except for a little snow at the very end. On to the next one for SC. I'd be willing to bet that by Thursday this storm is rain even for Boone and all the way to DC. The north trend starts tonight and will not reverse. Actually agree. This setup is just odd, just don't see it as a winter precip maker for the piedmont. Piping hot warm nose with the the location of the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Here comes the doom and gloom until the next euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually agree. This setup is just odd, just don't see it as a winter precip maker for the piedmont. Piping hot warm nose with the the location of the low... Never felt this one would be more than rain in SC. The options for a better southern track have just not been there save a few members to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Doom, gloom, depression and despair until the king saves us at 2:00am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Actually agree. This setup is just odd, just don't see it as a winter precip maker for the piedmont. Piping hot warm nose with the the location of the low... Yea, GSP said it all. Bye Felecia! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 1) GFS = winter storm, ECWFMWFCF = rain "The Euro isn't what it used to be. The GFS killed it with the last storm." 2) ECWFMWFCF = winter storm, GFS = rain "The Euro is the king. The GFS solution is weird and trended to the Euro last time anyway. Plus it's the 18z or the 6z or the 0z or the 12z or the 280zx or...." 3) No models are showing a winter storm "The models don't have a good handle on the pattern. Too many shortwaves in the flow. Models don't do well with extreme blocking. We'll wait till the next run." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 **Stupid system is not even on shore yet. Hard to sample** 1) GFS = winter storm, ECWFMWFCF = rain"The Euro isn't what it used to be. The GFS killed it with the last storm."2) ECWFMWFCF = winter storm, GFS = rain"The Euro is the king. The GFS solution is weird and trended to the Euro last time anyway. Plus it's the 18z or the 6z or the 0z or the 12z or the 280zx or...."3) No models are showing a winter storm"The models don't have a good handle on the pattern. Too many shortwaves in the flow. Models don't do well with extreme blocking. We'll wait till the next run." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 **Stupid system is not even on shore yet. Hard to sample** Lol yeah that too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It looks like the GFS has started the trend north. Joe Bastardi doesn't think the Euro is right either. May still be ice in CAD regions of NC for a while, but that may be it. This will probably be an Arkansas, Kentucky, lower Ohio Valley, WV and PA snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 In no way am I sold on the Euro solution or even a Ice storm for CAD regions..... I don't like GFS being consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Neither do I but we have plenty of time for things to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm gonna laugh when the 0z euro puts all rain even in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Glenn Frey dead at 67. Geez we are losing icons daily it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm gonna laugh when the 0z euro puts all rain even in the mtns. Yup, that just might happen at 12z tomorrow, If 00z tonight shows any shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is Winter over yet? Gosh, I hope so. Bring on Spring. 70 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yup, that just might happen at 12z tomorrow, If 00z tonight shows any shift north?The problem is that it's a very real concern. Unbelievable though that even the mountains can't cash in on anything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 A SLP ramming into mile high mountains AND dense cold air damming against them... God save King EURO. Be steadfast, o king of the weather models. I can feel this one slipping away six hours at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The euro is actually NORTH of the GFS. Messed up trolling system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This has been the longest silence on the forum all day. Thanks, 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes, but euro xferred off SC not this ride up through NC off delmarva, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes, but euro xferred off SC not this ride up through NC off delmarva, correct? You're right, It'll all depend on where the transfer happens, JB might not know it all, but he's pretty good at picking out model errors and biases.... I hope like heck he's wrong, But you just can't ignore any solution!!! Including the 18Z Goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yes, but euro xferred off SC not this ride up through NC off delmarva, correct? Yup and whats interesting is that the HIgh to the North was 20mb stronger than the GFS. That's why it was colder. This has been the longest silence on the forum all day. Thanks, 18z GFS. And if the GFS is right that high isnt going to cut it with a CAD. When that low forms off the coast, the mid-atlantic will get a very harsh re-introduction to what a marine layer is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 1) GFS = winter storm, ECWFMWFCF = rain "The Euro isn't what it used to be. The GFS killed it with the last storm." 2) ECWFMWFCF = winter storm, GFS = rain "The Euro is the king. The GFS solution is weird and trended to the Euro last time anyway. Plus it's the 18z or the 6z or the 0z or the 12z or the 280zx or...." 3) No models are showing a winter storm "The models don't have a good handle on the pattern. Too many shortwaves in the flow. Models don't do well with extreme blocking. We'll wait till the next run." Lol. Exactly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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