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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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That will not happen like that again in our lifetimes. The models are better than that now. NO ONE saw that coming even 1-2 hours out. As far another big storm taking that kind of track, it's possible, but not likely anytime soon.

Surprises still do happen, though. I thought the severity of the March 2014 ice storm is a good example. Worst ice storm in over a decade and we didn't get a WSW until after the event had already began. It went from a nuisance event to having my power knocked out for a week.

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It must have been rough watching that thing bury much of SC and over to Raleigh and completely miss the mountains. We got a foot here, but just 10 miles northwest got very little out of it.

those late phasing storms always suck over here. Nothing like sitting in the teens and 20's while the piedmont and coast gets raked and we smoke cirrus.
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Surprises still do happen, though. I thought the severity of the March 2014 ice storm is a good example. Worst ice storm in over a decade and we didn't get a WSW until after the event has already began.

That's true, but at least that event did show up on models ahead of time. Jan 2000 did not show up until it was on the radars and ongoing. Even then the NWS was playing catch up all day. 

 

Edit: I do think maybe it was there, but was supposed to stay well offshore, so no forecast had snow in it to start.

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That's true, but at least that event did show up on models ahead of time. Jan 2000 did not show up until it was on the radars and ongoing. Even then the NWS was playing catch up all day.

Edit: I do think maybe it was there, but was supposed to stay well offshore, so no forecast had snow in it to start.

It was supposed to be a moderate storm that would really get going too far east too amount to very much. However, the models missed an area of intense convection over the Gulf states. That area of convection essentially fed energy into the developing storm, which allowed it to rapidly intensify much closer to the coast. Also, we had a very cold, dry, and FRESH arctic air mass in place...not some stale, marginal, high dew point regime.

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Complain? Models are models, right? They output input, with no human "tweak", right? Then we interpolate, right?

 

Here's the latest without human interaction.

 

My tweak/interpolation would get me not only banned, but disbarred and possibly thrown in jail for vile vulgar model assault .... never mind the battery

 

post-180-0-12122100-1453000292_thumb.gif

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