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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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We ALWAYS have a fantasy 10-14 day storm for people to analyze and discuss. Then it goes poof and we're on to the next one.

Eventually, we'll drop the term "winter" and we'll just cycle through three seasons.

Spring

Summer

Fall

Prozac

Spring

Summer

Fall

Prozac

Spring

Summer

Fall

Prozac

Ad infinitum with an occasional cold spell between Fall and Spring.

 

Fixed

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Winters around here (at least IMBY) have been above average in the snowfall department recently.  I do not understand the angst many in this forum are showing.

 

2009-2010 and 2013-2014 were way above average.  2014-2015 was above average.  2012-2013 was about 50% of average while 2011-2012 was admittedly pretty bad, but still around 25% of average here.  2010-2011 was around average, or maybe a bit above.  Granted, it's been all a second half of the winter show here since the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm in 2010.  Every significant snow or ice event except two have been in February or March.

 

Granted, MBY has probably done better than most, but I doubt it has been that bad.  The mid-2000s were surely a lot worse.

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Winters around here (at least IMBY) have been above average in the snowfall department recently. I do not understand the angst many in this forum are showing.

2009-2010 and 2013-2014 were way above average. 2014-2015 was above average. 2012-2013 was about 50% of average while 2011-2012 was admittedly pretty bad, but still around 25% of average here. 2010-2011 was around average, or maybe a bit above. Granted, it's been all a second half of the winter show here since the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm in 2010. Every significant snow or ice event except two have been in February or March.

you are really due for a sucky winter. My last 4 winters :

11-12: 0% of average

12-13: 0% of average

13-14: 150% of average

14-15: 0% of average

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Winters around here (at least IMBY) have been above average in the snowfall department recently. I do not understand the angst.

2009-2010 and 2013-2014 were way above average. 2014-2015 was above average. 2012-2013 was about 50% of average while 2011-2012 was admittedly pretty bad, but still around 25% of average here. 2010-2011 was around average, or maybe a bit above.

We're running out of time! Relaxation next weekend, probably be Feb before we flip back to cold , if it happens at all!? February could suck, and that would really be bad!
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you are really due for a sucky winter. My last 4 winters :

11-12: 0% of average

12-13: 0% of average

13-14: 150% of average

14-15: 0% of average

 

Here are the NWS snowfall records here (KGSO) over the past 10 years:

 

2005-2006: 1.3"

2006-2007: 0.8"

2007-2008: 4.0"

2008-2009: 6.9" (Almost all of which came with the March 1 storm)

2009-2010: 16.6" (A hearty winter from December through March)

2010-2011: 9.9" (Almost all of it in December)

2011-2012: 1.6" (one storm in mid-February)

2012-2013: 3.6" (Most of it came with the mid-January 2013 storm that was busted for most on this forum)

2013-2014: 15.3" (All of it after January 28th)

2014-2015: 9.6" (All of it in February)

 

And of course a big fat 0" this year.

 

Our average is somewhere in the 7.5-9.5" per year, depending on the period of record you use.

 

As you can see, the last five years have been much better than the preceding five years. :) The mid-2000s were a disaster.

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I said back before Christmas I felt we wouldn't have an event before MLK Day. Considering Sunday's potential baby event, I feel good so far. I also said in my snow guestimation last month I was banking on most of our snow coming at the end of February. I hope I can bring it on home after valentines day! My money is after Valentines day until the first week of March.

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I said back before Christmas I felt we wouldn't have an event before MLK Day. Considering Sunday's potential baby event, I feel good so far. I also said in my snow guestimation last month I was banking on most of our snow coming at the end of February. I hope I can bring it on home after valentines day! My money is after Valentines day until the first week of March.

are you sure you're not getting last year and this year confused ? Wasn't it last year when a lot of locations had most of their snow in late Feb ? I have a hard time believing two winters in a row would play out in almost identical fashion, especially since late Feb isn't normally the snowiest part of winter. Are there a lot of similarities you are seeing between last winter and this winter that makes you predict such similar outcomes ?
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are you sure you're not getting last year and this year confused ? Wasn't it last year when a lot of locations had most of their snow in late Feb ? I have a hard time believing two winters in a row would play out in almost identical fashion, especially since late Feb isn't normally the snowiest part of winter. Are there a lot of similarities you are seeing between last winter and this winter that makes you predict such similar outcomes ?

 

Well, most of our snow has come in February/March for the past two winters.

 

Each winter is independent, so just because it happens in one winter has no bearing on the next one.  In my area, we also saw two big winter storms in December in 2009 and 2010, despite only averaging around ~1" of snow in December over the 1981-2010 period.

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What's the Euro showing for the midweek system ? Is it still showing a big dumping of snow or is that gone too ?

 

It's not out that far, but I don't think it was every showing much for most of the SE aside from TN for the mid-week system.

 

I probably won't bother looking.  One potential "storm" at a time.

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I'll go with big, steaming pile of dump! Winter cancel

is it pathetic that I may drive 200+ miles tomorrow just to see an inch of snow ? Hopefully I don't get up there and all I see is virga. I keep asking myself is it even worth it ? But then again this may be the only chance for me to see snow this winter.
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is it pathetic that I may drive 200+ miles tomorrow just to see an inch of snow ? Hopefully I don't get up there and all I see is virga. I keep asking myself is it even worth it ? But then again this may be the only chance for me to see snow this winter.

 

I would say not worth it. That's a lot of driving for a storm that's not even certain to produce accumulation. 

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I would say not worth it. That's a lot of driving for a storm that's not even certain to produce accumulation.

so you're saying there's a possibility that not a single location in NC will get any accumulation ? Maybe I should just wait for the midweek system and hope it delivers in TN or NC and chase that ? Or should I just do the unthinkable and go to the Great Lakes where I know they will be guaranteed lake effect snow ?
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I was thinking about either Hickory, Morganton, or Hendersonville or should I go somewhere with more elevation ?

 

Surely, they'll be better storms down the line later this month or in February or March.  I'd stay put unless we get some weenie runs tomorrow at the last minute.  I'd say that if we see anything, it will be hit and miss stuff and I wouldn't want to chase that as the bust factor is too high.  Maybe you'd be better in the higher elevations, but then you deal with potential road closures and such.

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Surely, they'll be better storms down the line later this month or in February or March. I'd stay put unless we get some weenie runs tomorrow at the last minute. I'd say that if we see anything, it will be hit and miss stuff and I wouldn't want to chase that as the bust factor is too high. Maybe you'd be better in the higher elevations, but then you deal with potential road closures and such.

I'm desperate dude and there are no guarantees in a winter like this. This could turn out to be like 2011-12.
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I'm desperate dude and there are no guarantees in a winter like this.

 

I'd say a better storm down the line is as close to a certainty as you can get in weather.

 

The mid-week system might actually be pretty good in the favored upslope locations of the NC/TN mountains.  Of course, I do not know if you can chase mid-week or not.

 

I got my snow fix in Arizona a week and a half ago.  Tons of snow!

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so you're saying there's a possibility that not a single location in NC will get any accumulation ? Maybe I should just wait for the midweek system and hope it delivers in TN or NC and chase that ? Or should I just do the unthinkable and go to the Great Lakes where I know they will be guaranteed lake effect snow ?

He's just mad, on the outside looking in! While NGa, NC , SC score big, before VA! :)
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