Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 i meant that weenies here would overreact the same way they did after 18z, even though it wasnt a bad run. Oh yeah, I totally gotcha. I typed that for the weenies. I know you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'd say if the GFS had some kind of model support from somewhere, anywhere, I'd say ok maybe there's a chance. But I can't find any model, JMA, NOGAPS, Canadian, nothing that supports an phased system. It's by itself (maybe UKIE? Don't have access). For that reason.....I'm out. Shark tank FTL!! GFS, it's ensembles, GFS Para, Ukie, Euro ensembles and EPS for the most part are in the same camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Oh yeah, I totally gotcha. I typed that for the weenies. I know you get it. when will the wave finally be onshore and properly sampled i wonder? 18z tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Tonight's 00z GFS is the most important model run or our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'd say if the GFS had some kind of model support from somewhere, anywhere, I'd say ok maybe there's a chance. But I can't find any model, JMA, NOGAPS, Canadian, nothing that supports an phased system. It's by itself (maybe UKIE? Don't have access). For that reason.....I'm out. Shark tank FTL!! I guess I would say that the solutions that don't have a storm vs those that do are separated by small differences that could realistically be resolved over the next 84-96 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Tonight's 00z GFS is the most important model run or our lives. "biggest run of the year" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 "biggest run of the year" It'll be the biggest run until 06z... then 12z... then 18z, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 when will the wave finally be onshore and properly sampled i wonder? 18z tomorrow? Don't know for sure. That sounds reasonable. I don't know if it is a certainty that it will matter, but we've seen this scenario numerous times.... A storm shows up, disappears and then reappears within a short time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 "biggest run of the year" *looks at GFS and Euro* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Don't know for sure. That sounds reasonable. I don't know if it is a certainty that it will matter, but we've seen this scenario numerous times.... A storm shows up, disappears and then reappears within a short time frame. i remember the xmas storm a few years back...the models lost it and then when the sw got over the conus it brought it back. i guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 i remember the xmas storm a few years back...the models lost it and then when the sw got over the conus it brought it back. i guess we will see.that one came back about 18 hours before the storm hit. Gfs was the only one to catch on until the ruc came into range. I remember the nws was tossing the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 i remember the xmas storm a few years back...the models lost it and then when the sw got over the conus it brought it back. i guess we will see. Yes exactly. Can you guess the ENSO state that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 when will the wave finally be onshore and properly sampled i wonder? 18z tomorrow?Friday morning IMO possibly beginning with 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 that one came back about 18 hours before the storm hit. Gfs was the only one to catch on until the ruc came into range. I remember the nws was tossing the gfs. Yeah, I remember they tossed it for bad data ingest or something, haha. That was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, I remember they tossed it for bad data ingest or something, haha. That was fun. Yep, that's exactly what happened. Those threads are fun to read through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think there's a lot of confirmation bias that goes on with regards to the Euro/GFS battle. The stats show that the Euro is better, but it's not THAT much better, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yep, that's exactly what happened. Those threads are fun to read through. Yeah, that was a great series of threads. I remember you started the thread close to a week out with your guarantee, then it was a roller coaster from there until zero hour! I like reading some of the old threads from time to time. I need to give this past February's storm a read soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 00z GFS gonna dab on em' tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, that was a great series of threads. I remember you started the thread close to a week out with your guarantee, then it was a roller coaster from there until zero hour! I like reading some of the old threads from time to time. I need to give this past February's storm a read soon. Yeah, they're fun to read....especially when there's nothing going on. I really liked that setup. I need to go back and read the Feb one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 00z GFS gonna dab on em' tonight! My prediction is that it's gonna suck and people are gonna get sucked into the Euro's solution hook, line, and sinker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm going thru pat withdrawals. The 18z para still isn't out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 lol DT laying it down in the main thread. hes right..i cant remembr a time JB admitted a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 My prediction is that it's gonna suck and people are gonna get sucked into the Euro's solution hook, line, and sinker!Lol probably. It's rolling going to see what the ol gfs has up its sleeve tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 D to the T done rolled up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 lol DT laying it down in the main thread. hes right..i cant remembr a time JB admitted a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 D to the T done rolled up in hereLol yep he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 What is amazing to me is how steady state the GFS had been in regards to showing a system where the EURO squashes it. Considering the fact that the GFS is generally a northern stream dominant model guidance and usually in its bias mode, would suppress the crap out of it. I also saw a question about when the GFS can lead the way. Well it did on Nov 2006 when an upper level low cut off offshore and produced a little snow in SC, and GA and flurries fell in N Fl. Sniffed it out 5 days out and never wavered when everything else played catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We gots people popping up out of region... either this is starting to be taken as an event, or a weenie roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Looks like the GFS might be about to bring the goods. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I've heard JB talk about busting.. but its usually on video/quick gloss over and changes the subject quickly. rofl.. so he half-assed has before... but then always finds a way to be right about something else down the road ... or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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