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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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Yep that's the one. GFS has scored a few times. I think around these parts the Euro got it's legendary status really from the Christmas storm and the GFS was really not good during it. Other storms though it's done well. I believe it did really well with the Jan 2011 event and it's been the first to sniff out storms on a number of occasions. Like I said in the other thread, I think the bigger problem is how it often over amplifies the QPF which makes people dream big. I've always felt the Euro does a decent job of not going too bonkers with the QPF which usually allows one to not get out of hand.

Yeah I remember that Xmas day storm well. I flew out of Asheville to Denver at 6am as the first flakes started to fall and I didn't get to single inch. Kind of like what might happen to you lol.

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dont know where this goes but assume banter is an ok place for it.....the models have been showing some energy coming ashore near the california/oregon border for several runs now, that energy can be seen on the water water loop now and it appears to me to be more powerful and a bit further south at this time headed more into north central calif rather than its northern border.

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dont know where this goes but assume banter is an ok place for it.....the models have been showing some energy coming ashore near the california/oregon border for several runs now, that energy can be seen on the water water loop now and it appears to me to be more powerful and a bit further south at this time headed more into north central calif rather than its northern border.

models will finally be able to sample it better tomorrow. 

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dont know where this goes but assume banter is an ok place for it.....the models have been showing some energy coming ashore near the california/oregon border for several runs now, that energy can be seen on the water water loop now and it appears to me to be more powerful and a bit further south at this time headed more into north central calif rather than its northern border.

post-9342-0-89035100-1452735839_thumb.jp

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If you're betting against the Euro on this storm at this range, you're very young, suffer memory loss, or just just refuse to reflect on history. How many times in the past 10 years have we had a similar situation and the gfs ends up being right? To bet against the euro in this situation is ludicrous. Maybe this will be the once in a blue moon that the GFS is victorious over the Euro. TW

 

 

It happens a lot more than you think.  People just seem to ignore it when GFS win battles over the Euro.

You have to give the GFS/ensemble consistency some credit so far in a chaotic h5.

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Well, that would have been quite interesting to read.  Too bad the comments must have all been deleted.  Where were the battle lines drawn?  I think I can probably guess.

 

Mutually agreed that the NAM had the best record of late.  Speaking of which, the 00z NAM isn't the worst look, should pop a Low in the Northern Gulf soon.

 

Edit. nvm. poop.

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can we agree that when the 00z gfs comes in not as amped as 12z again that we wont all cliff jump and cancel the storm?

Why would we?

1) The wave is in a data sparse area.

2) These systems have over produced all season so far (very typical of active STJ).

3) The Euro wasn't far off from being able to develop the system.

The wound up solution could very well be wrong, but it's still very much on the table as a legitimate possibility.

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Why would we?

1) The wave is in a data sparse area.

2) These systems have over produced all season so far (very typical of active STJ).

3) The Euro wasn't far off from being able to develop the system.

The wound up solution could very well be wrong, but it's still very much on the table as a legitimate possibility.

i meant that weenies here would overreact the same way they did after 18z, even though it wasnt a bad run.

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I'd say if the GFS had some kind of model support from somewhere, anywhere, I'd say ok maybe there's a chance.  But I can't find any model, JMA, NOGAPS, Canadian, nothing that supports an phased system.  It's by itself (maybe UKIE? Don't have access).  For that reason.....I'm out.  Shark tank FTL!!

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