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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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just wish something would give so we can put it to rest.  when gfs is not showing snow, its horrible.  when euro is not showing snow its horrible.

 

old arguments now. either you dislike the gfs or not. the euro is better as a general rule. stop trying to figure out why the gfs is going to win vs the euro when 2 days ago you said the gfs is lost and has no idea what to do cause it sucks.

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well once again the eps members themselves.. extremely light on snow, 2 members with anything substantial for the nc areas... and the rest empty..

not a strong mean signal for a low. looks like it goes poop into cuba

Forgive me if I'm wrong but I don't see a low south of central Florida on the EPS

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Forgive me if I'm wrong but I don't see a low south of central Florida on the EPS

 

Yeah, I was looking at a lower res.. and i can't really find a low on the ensemble mean as a whole.. just a wide area of 1012mb or so pushed south..  there are 22 members total with something... with around 15 of those in a good area/tracking area to get some precip/possible wintry into NC especially.

 

maybe another model source/other maps will show it better....

 

and that map posted in the threat thread really shows how far apart the euro and gfs are.... one is going to fold soon... my heart says gfs will start to dial it back...  we shall see soon I hope.

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Gonna be funny if GFS holds onto the bomb at 18z, and 00z , then Euro still shows supression at 0z! How long can they stay polar opposites

Until its time to monitor the HRRR. Cant remember which event but I swear we had one last year where the GFS was still at odds with the Euro almost to the first flake. We all talk about getting inside the 5 day window but its really seeming more and more like the 5 hour window to get any accuracy.

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Until its time to monitor the HRRR. Cant remember which event but I swear we had one last year where the GFS was still at odds with the Euro almost to the first flake. We all talk about getting inside the 5 day window but its really seeming more and more like the 5 hour window to get any accuracy.

You are correct. I believe it was in late January that we had a storm that the Euro and EPS showed for days dropping 5-6" in WNC with the GFS trending away from snow at all up to the event. The Euro began to cave within hr48 and I ended up only getting flurries/virga. Not saying the reverse will happen, but hey it did last year and I remember being disappointed that the GFS was right for once.

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You are correct. I believe it was in late January that we had a storm that the Euro and EPS showed for days dropping 5-6" in WNC with the GFS trending away from snow at all up to the event. The Euro began to cave within hr48 and I ended up only getting flurries/virga. Not saying the reverse will happen, but hey it did last year and I remember being disappointed that the GFS was right for once.

 

Yep that's the one. GFS has scored a few times. I think around these parts the Euro got it's legendary status really from the Christmas storm and the GFS was really not good during it. Other storms though it's done well. I believe it did really well with the Jan 2011 event and it's been the first to sniff out storms on a number of occasions. Like I said in the other thread, I think the bigger problem is how it often over amplifies the QPF which makes people dream big. I've always felt the Euro does a decent job of not going too bonkers with the QPF which usually allows one to not get out of hand. 

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