Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gonna be funny if GFS holds onto the bomb at 18z, and 00z , then Euro still shows supression at 0z! How long can they stay polar opposites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Guys you do not need to go against the Euro model or what Dale Gilbert of WYFF says for Sunday. It will be a sunny dry day for certain. I wish we had DEC back since it is not going to snow anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 just wish something would give so we can put it to rest. when gfs is not showing snow, its horrible. when euro is not showing snow its horrible. old arguments now. either you dislike the gfs or not. the euro is better as a general rule. stop trying to figure out why the gfs is going to win vs the euro when 2 days ago you said the gfs is lost and has no idea what to do cause it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 WeatherBug says chilly and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 well once again the eps members themselves.. extremely light on snow, 2 members with anything substantial for the nc areas... and the rest empty.. not a strong mean signal for a low. looks like it goes poop into cuba somwhere south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 well once again the eps members themselves.. extremely light on snow, 2 members with anything substantial for the nc areas... and the rest empty.. not a strong mean signal for a low. looks like it goes poop into cuba Forgive me if I'm wrong but I don't see a low south of central Florida on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Forgive me if I'm wrong but I don't see a low south of central Florida on the EPS Yeah, I was looking at a lower res.. and i can't really find a low on the ensemble mean as a whole.. just a wide area of 1012mb or so pushed south.. there are 22 members total with something... with around 15 of those in a good area/tracking area to get some precip/possible wintry into NC especially. maybe another model source/other maps will show it better.... and that map posted in the threat thread really shows how far apart the euro and gfs are.... one is going to fold soon... my heart says gfs will start to dial it back... we shall see soon I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Fear not. As posted in the OBS thread, we still might have sometning to track. @NHC_Atlantic 6m6 minutes ago NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Alex, located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, at 4 pm EST/2100 UTC. So we have our first named "tropical" storm before the snow flies. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What does the fox say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What does the fox say? That he's tired of jumping over the lazy dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What does the fox say? Judging from the 8 years that he coached here, "it is what it is". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Judging from the 8 years that he coached here, "it is what it is". actually, "The Euro picked a bad day to have a bad day" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You got a better chance of winning the powerball than to see snow this Sunday from the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You got a better chance of winning the powerball than to see snow this Sunday from the GFS!. I don't feel so bad about buying a ticket now. I never play the lottery but today is my daughters 18th birthday so I took her to get a ticket and bought one myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The timing of this article from Physics Today could not have been better. Talks about why the US models fall behind the Euro and UKie. http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/1/10.1063/PT.3.3046 Also if we call the Euro king would we not call the para euro the prince? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Man, miss the Euro play by play with the BOOMS! I miss the Euro booms. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 sucks seeing the 12z para gfs with 850s crashing almost through the entire state of SC with good precip.... with nothing but rain to show for it. even ATL gets the middle finger. i hate winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm riding the consistent Para GFS 'cuz IT FEELS GOOD. All aboard! Next stop - Glory or despair... more likely the latter, but I digress! Almost time for the next episode of "As the Models Turn"... starring the 18z GFS. Will it hold or will it crumble?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Gonna be funny if GFS holds onto the bomb at 18z, and 00z , then Euro still shows supression at 0z! How long can they stay polar opposites Until its time to monitor the HRRR. Cant remember which event but I swear we had one last year where the GFS was still at odds with the Euro almost to the first flake. We all talk about getting inside the 5 day window but its really seeming more and more like the 5 hour window to get any accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Remember when people were ecstatic just one model had a fantasy storm within 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Until its time to monitor the HRRR. Cant remember which event but I swear we had one last year where the GFS was still at odds with the Euro almost to the first flake. We all talk about getting inside the 5 day window but its really seeming more and more like the 5 hour window to get any accuracy. You are correct. I believe it was in late January that we had a storm that the Euro and EPS showed for days dropping 5-6" in WNC with the GFS trending away from snow at all up to the event. The Euro began to cave within hr48 and I ended up only getting flurries/virga. Not saying the reverse will happen, but hey it did last year and I remember being disappointed that the GFS was right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You are correct. I believe it was in late January that we had a storm that the Euro and EPS showed for days dropping 5-6" in WNC with the GFS trending away from snow at all up to the event. The Euro began to cave within hr48 and I ended up only getting flurries/virga. Not saying the reverse will happen, but hey it did last year and I remember being disappointed that the GFS was right for once. Yep that's the one. GFS has scored a few times. I think around these parts the Euro got it's legendary status really from the Christmas storm and the GFS was really not good during it. Other storms though it's done well. I believe it did really well with the Jan 2011 event and it's been the first to sniff out storms on a number of occasions. Like I said in the other thread, I think the bigger problem is how it often over amplifies the QPF which makes people dream big. I've always felt the Euro does a decent job of not going too bonkers with the QPF which usually allows one to not get out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 God forbid you talk about of phasing on the threat. stupid mod who did that. Anyway's GFS seems to take that slow steady fall towards the euro. Wish we see snow this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not sure why everyone is so scared of the Euro. It's obvious it's wrong because it doesn't have a storm like the GFS kinda still does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Because the GFS is caving more to the euro more so than vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Because the GFS is caving more to the euro more so than vice versa That is absolutely impossible! There is no way Euro is right since the JMA is a no go too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That is absolutely impossible! There is no way Euro is right since the JMA is a no go too! The Euro kinda reminds me of a politician running for office again after losing his seat to another politician. Just doesn't feel the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That is absolutely impossible! There is no way Euro is right since the JMA is a no go too! I can dig that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And I thought Facebook was bad.....smh. On another note I hope the GFS is right but would really like to see the euro jump on board. Would love too see the majority of the board cash in, especially the SC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And I thought Facebook was bad.....smh. On another note I hope the GFS is right but would really like to see the euro jump on board. Would love too see the majority of the board cash in, especially the SC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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