JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 84hr NAM = 10 day GFS = = = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 00z GFS be like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 nam at 84 hours as no strength. It's not "model bashing" it's common sense. Anyways It doesn't look too far off from the gfs. I never said 84 hours. I was talking about the entire run. Its trended further from trough ULL interaction, which wont be good if you want cold air. Well see what the 0z does, but i'm not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 FWIW the 60 hour 4km NAM has a 992 low in the Gulf for the system on Friday. The 12km has a 1006 broad low at the same time. A BIG difference in strength and I'm assuming the 4km version phases the two pieces of energy better. The reason this is important is the stronger this storm is the better it will set us up for the cold air with whatever we see Saturday night into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 FWIW the 60 hour 4km NAM has a 992 low in the Gulf for the system on Friday. The 12km has a 1006 broad low at the same time. A BIG difference in strength and I'm assuming the 4km version phases the two pieces of energy better. The reason this is important is the stronger this storm is the better it will set us up for the cold air with whatever we see Saturday night into Sunday. Nice... So ready to actually be in NAM range for a storm. The weenie in me so wants to say "GAME ON!", but plenty of time to hit a whammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I believe it'll still be there tonight but still rain for central NC. I'm on the side of 2m temps being too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I don't really care what the GFS shows at anytime of the day I only ride the king baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Let's go January! It's been more than a few years since one inch of snow. According to our local met Ed Piatrowski we are in the odds for it lol. Just not in the next 7 days. We average 1 inch snow once every 4 years and it's our best average month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I believe it'll still be there tonight but still rain for central NC. I'm on the side of 2m temps being too warm. I'm dreading that sun angle though.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 FWIW the 60 hour 4km NAM has a 992 low in the Gulf for the system on Friday. The 12km has a 1006 broad low at the same time. A BIG difference in strength and I'm assuming the 4km version phases the two pieces of energy better. The reason this is important is the stronger this storm is the better it will set us up for the cold air with whatever we see Saturday night into Sunday. Curious to know why your even looking at NAM it's only making us all depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Let's go January! It's been more than a few years since one inch of snow. According to our local met Ed Piatrowski we are in the odds for it lol. Just not in the next 7 days. We average 1 inch snow once every 4 years and it's our best average month. Interesting. Myrtle Beach is about the same latitude as Atlanta and it snows way more than that in Atlanta. I guess the elevation helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm dreading that sun angle though.... Lol The sun angle has already increased 2 degrees since the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 FWIW the 60 hour 4km NAM has a 992 low in the Gulf for the system on Friday. The 12km has a 1006 broad low at the same time. A BIG difference in strength and I'm assuming the 4km version phases the two pieces of energy better. The reason this is important is the stronger this storm is the better it will set us up for the cold air with whatever we see Saturday night into Sunday. Curious to know why your even looking at NAM it's only making us all depressed. The system this Thursday/Friday is critical for the storm Saturday into Sunday. A stronger system this Thursday and Friday will pull the cold air in quicker across the area and set up better blocking vs a weaker system which would result in warmer conditions for the Saturday/Sunday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'll take my flizzard and run at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 yeah we uhm. have a potential storm. maybe. but man the temps absolutely suck. like not even close for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Over 76 years in Myrtle Beach, we've had 4 snowfalls ≥ 6" and only 1 snowfall ≥ 12". No one who was here will ever forget the great Christmas snow of 1989 when 14" fell in Myrtle Beach. On average we get a 1" snow every 4 years, a 3" snow every 8 years, a 6" snow every 19 years and a 12" snow every 75 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wow, about 1/2" for me. I'll take it and call it a winter and be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Over 76 years in Myrtle Beach, we've had 4 snowfalls ≥ 6" and only 1 snowfall ≥ 12". No one who was here will ever forget the great Christmas snow of 1989 when 14" fell in Myrtle Beach. On average we get a 1" snow every 4 years, a 3" snow every 8 years, a 6" snow every 19 years and a 12" snow every 75 years. Heck, Myrtle Beach gets a 6" snow more often than Atlanta. 33 years and counting for the ATL and I don't think ATL has ever had a 12" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Anybody on here been to wolf ridge or cataloochie lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That awesome snow storm we had was right after Hugo hit. Was a wild year for weather here. Too bad I was only 5 when it happened, would have liked to be a bit older to fully appreciate how rare it was. A foot of snow here probably won't happen again in my lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Heck, Myrtle Beach gets a 6" snow more often than Atlanta. 33 years and counting for the ATL and I don't think ATL has ever had a 12" snow. Some parts of the Atlanta area got over a foot and blizzard conditions from the 93 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 For those who haven't seen the Canadian it took a step in the right direction. The energy is slightly faster, stronger and neutral tilt versus its previous run. 12z run 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the canadian i think would be cold enough for many to see Wintry weather, even at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the canadian i think would be cold enough for many to see Wintry weather, even at 2m. I'm surprised at the lack of qpf on the CMC given the 500mb setup but it's good to at least see it take a step towards the GFS in the upper levels. Now just need to wait for the Euro to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 meh, gefs got even a bit warmer for the main stuff. wetter..track wanted to go over land at one point, idk. the idea of a systerm coming from the gulf is obvious... i'd assume more euro ens get on board if not the op with something. canadian tried.. and it was much colder for everyone.. so basically we have moisture down here in cae, but lack the cold. as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 meh, gefs got even a bit warmer for the main stuff. wetter..track wanted to go over land at one point, idk. the idea of a systerm coming from the gulf is obvious... i'd assume more euro ens get on board if not the op with something. canadian tried.. and it was much colder for everyone.. so basically we have moisture down here in cae, but lack the cold. as usual. It's a thread the needle situation for sure and I don't know if the cold will make it down that far or not, or even here in NC. It all depends on how the storm this Thursday and Friday sets up. The quicker and stronger that is the better for snow chances with our Saturday/Sunday threat. It's becoming clearer that we will have a storm and I think Euro will show that or shift that direction tonight. The questions now are track, qpf and temps as always here in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's a thread the needle situation for sure and I don't know if the cold will make it down that far or not, or even here in NC. It all depends on how the storm this Thursday and Friday sets up. The quicker and stronger that is the better for snow chances with our Saturday/Sunday threat. It's becoming clearer that we will have a storm and I think Euro will show that or shift that direction tonight. The questions now are track, qpf and temps as always here in the SE. im just not feeling it this far south at all. from Rock Hill, SC North and NW SC, better position. Stranger things have happened... and I am pretty sure this is the storm the euro had a few days ago giving 3 inches or so and then a huge 9 incher behind it. some of the ensemble members had 2+ inches here from the 12z OP. so that gives me a slight tad bit of hope to at least end/see some fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I might be crazy.. but it looks like the 18z para gfs wants to end the precip at least in the midlands of sc as wintry. edit. surface still warm maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well, just got word I am officially moving the first week in Feb. I'm hoping you guys have a rocking Feb in the Southeast! Already sucks I won't even be in town this Sunday. Gonna miss being around when the snow is actually falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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