Jonathan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Time to start the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 almost time for dr no to bust down the door. weenies will start jumping if it comes in with a totally diff solution than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Here comes the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 before it happens if it does......about 10 days ago another site put out the claim that the second and third weeks of this month would be much colder in the east with a chance of snow in the south......Spann used his work as an example of irresponsible posting on social media....BUT it is clear the first part the cold has verified and indeed it appears the chance of snow soon in the south is very real at this time....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not very excited about this Sunday storm, south of northern burbs of Atlanta.Looks like it will be too warm at the surface and maybe even trend to far north with the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Doesn't matter what you call it, when it's a 35 degree rain! For RDU at least it looks good for some snow and I'm not worried about surface temps. At this range it's better to look at 850s and if the moisture is there the cold air mix down to the surface quickly. For example the clipper snows on 1/4 here in NC, we had a heavy burst of snow for 5 minutes and my temp dropped from 38 to 33 quickly. The 850 temps were much colder which allowed things to mix down. Let's see what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 For RDU at least it looks good for some snow and I'm not worried about surface temps. At this range it's better to look at 850s and if the moisture is there the cold air mix down to the surface quickly. For example the clipper snows on 1/4 here in NC, we had a heavy burst of snow for 5 minutes and my temp dropped from 38 to 33 quickly. The 850 temps were much colder which allowed things to mix down. Let's see what the Euro has to say. warm noses scare me...with the soundings looking good at this point ill take it. rates can overcome 400ft of above freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 warm noses scare me...with the soundings looking good at this point ill take it. rates can overcome 400ft of above freezing temps. I don't think it's a warm nose though. If you look at 925mb temp maps it doesn't indicate one present. I think it's more a matter of the cold air is filtering in and hasn't quite made it to the surface but the moisture would help speed that up especially with 850 temps so cold. That's the key to watch imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't think it's a warm nose though. If you look at 925mb temp maps it doesn't indicate one present. I think it's more a matter of the cold air is filtering in and hasn't quite made it to the surface but the moisture would help speed that up especially with 850 temps so cold. That's the key to watch imo. no i agree with you, i meant normally with storms down here the warm nose screws us, in this case we just have to overcome a shallow layer of warm air above the sfc, which id much rather have than a warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 warm noses scare me...with the soundings looking good at this point ill take it. rates can overcome 400ft of above freezing temps. Yeah warm noses are even bigger worry here lol, that said this setup as it stands now is really good for us, we do well when the cold is deep and we only have to overcome shallow warm layers at the boundry.....its much scarier when it starts as rain and the 850 is around 0C...the cold is here for this one the 540 is pinned on the coast this would be a pretty decent little shot of snow 1-3" for a lot of NC if it pans out.....the only way we see a warm nose scare is if this thing trends A LOT stronger with the coastal low really deeping and tracking up along the coast....if that happen guys way inland will love it, me not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 why cant all these models just get along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maybe we'll get a Valentine's Day 2010 redux and go from sending the low to Cuba (as the 12z Euro did) to winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Does JB hug the GFS after bashing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Does JB hug the GFS after bashing it? Yes. Yes he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Does JB hug the GFS after bashing it? If there's one thing I've learned in 16+ years of operational forecasting...it's the GFS isn't always the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like even if a storm, we stay rain round' these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 wow, oil prices dipped below $30/barrel for the first time since 2003 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 wow, oil prices dipped below $30/barrel for the first time since 2003 today. Yeah, last time was December 2003. Using my oil-weather analogs, this means that a repeat of the winter of 2003-2004 is incoming and, more importantly, we will get a repeat of the February 2004 monster storm. (In my dreams) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah, last time was December 2003. Using my oil-weather analogs, this means that a repeat of the winter of 2003-2004 is incoming and, more importantly, we will get a repeat of the February 2004 monster storm. (In my dreams) Hey, don't kid it could be better than our other analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't think it's gonna work out. Not really any ridging in the Atlantic to enhance the trough. Too zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm ready for fabulous February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Followed by Marvelous March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Followed by Marvelous March!and amazing April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If we can just make it in range to pick up clues from the NAM we're golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If we can just make it in range to pick up clues from the NAM we're goldendgex will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 dgex will be out soon.Post it if it's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hate to ask a serious question in banter, but if the low is supressed, isn't it being supressed by a cold, strong , high pressure? If it has precip more to the north, how is the cold air not there or very marginal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hate to ask a serious question in banter, but if the low is supressed, isn't it being supressed by a cold, strong , high pressure? If it has precip more to the north, how is the cold air not there or very marginal? rates will overcome all bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Important GFS run coming up. We need it to hold serve or trend even better. Watch the energy in Canada, the PV lobe. Further east like the Euro and especially CMC would suppress our vort too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hate to ask a serious question in banter, but if the low is supressed, isn't it being supressed by a cold, strong , high pressure? If it has precip more to the north, how is the cold air not there or very marginal? It's more the surface temperatures that are marginal. 850s and such are pretty good. Of course, with surface temps marginal, accumulations would be difficult to achieve depending on the rates of precipitation and the time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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