January 2016 BANTER

[BIG FROSTY]

I'm right cheer, with no snow! just like er'body................

[Cold Rain]

Clemson just being Clemson yo.

[BIG FROSTY]

Here's comes 00z GFS  Big Dog tonight! 

[jburns]

So now you're the elite authority on geography? And based on climate and not location relative to the globe at that?

 

 

Ok, so maybe get the admin to re-arrange the regional forums by climate rather than location. Because right now, we're sorted by location, not climate. Sheesh. Then you can talk to shetley, max and snowstorm2011 instead of getting great reads from Pack, Cold Rain, snowlover91, Jon, grit and others.

 

I'm over this convo lol. We'll respectfully agree to disagree.

 

How 'bout them Tigers!

 

EDIT: Wikipedia says we're both right.

 

"Dark red states are usually included in definitions of the southeastern United States. Light red states are considered "southeastern" but with less frequency."

 

US_map-South_East.png

 

I'm not sure what Wikipedia article you got the map from because you didn't provide a link.  Here's one specifically talking about the mid-Atlantic.   

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_states

 

The Mid-Atlantic, also called Middle Atlantic states or the Mid-Atlantic states, form a region of the United States generally located between New England and the South Atlantic States. Its exact definition differs upon source, but the region often includes New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C., Virginia, and West Virginia. When discussing climate, Connecticut (especially southern Connecticut) is often included with the Mid-Atlantic region. The Mid-Atlantic has played an important role in the development of American culture, commerce, trade, and industry.[3]

[snowlover91]

1....I said normal to slightly above....this is what happened

 

2.....RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0 so far in Jan

3....there have been no threats...only 10 day fantasies 

4....smh

5....CAE is +2.0 already and my forecast calls for more of the same

 

 

1. Again you're ignoring the fact which is the PATTERN CHANGE did occur. Whether the temps are slightly BN, AN or average the pattern change did occur and thats the point.

2. Yes and I said look at the first 7 days, not 11, and you will see they averaged -1 to -3 in the first week of January. 

3. There are some threats. I posted a graphic in the other thread showing the parallel Euro ensembles indicating light snow for Raleigh on the 17th, 150 hours out on wxbell maps I looked at.

4. The OBX of NC saw snow. Its quite unusual for them to see snow whether it be ocean effect or from a clipper or coastal bomb, snow is snow and they saw accumulating snow on the OBX which is unusual for them.

5. FWIW Columbia's average temperature is 56-57 for January. You should end up -2 to -4 for January. We will see in a few weeks. Your 10 day forecast has 3 out of 10 days above average and the other 7 below.

 

[rxwxunc]

Has Merriam Webster added Clemosoning to the dictionary? If not, they should.

[superjames1992]

LOL, the yearly discussion about whether Virginia is southern is happening.

Just depends on the person you're talking to. Virginia is definitely Mid-Atlantic, but it can also be considered southern (after all, Richmond was the capital of the Confederacy). Likewise, NC is occasionally considered Mid-Atlantic, too. In the end, what difference does it make?

I understand why Southern VA posters post in this subforum, given how the Mid-Atlantic subform tends to revolve around the DC area. S VA has a climate more similar to the NC Piedmont and foothills than DC in many ways, anyways.

[snowlover91]

LOL, the yearly discussion about whether Virginia is southern is happening.

Just depends on the person you're talking to. Virginia is definitely Mid-Atlantic, but it can also be considered southern (after all, Richmond was the capital of the Confederacy). Likewise, NC is occasionally considered Mid-Atlantic, too. In the end, what difference does it make?

I understand why Southern VA posters post in this subforum, given how the Mid-Atlantic subform tends to revolve around the DC area. S VA has a climate more similar to the NC Piedmont and foothills than DC in many ways, anyways.

 

+1 excellent summary. 

[wncsnow]

LOL, the yearly discussion about whether Virginia is southern is happening.

Just depends on the person you're talking to. Virginia is definitely Mid-Atlantic, but it can also be considered southern (after all, Richmond was the capital of the Confederacy). Likewise, NC is occasionally considered Mid-Atlantic, too. In the end, what difference does it make?

I understand why Southern VA posters post in this subforum, given how the Mid-Atlantic subform tends to revolve around the DC area. S VA has a climate more similar to the NC Piedmont and foothills than DC in many ways, anyways.

 

I live 5 miles from the NC border and much closer to Greensboro, Durham and other NC cities than Richmond, the climate in Virginia is similar to NC until you get north of Lynchburg and Richmond

[buckeyefan1]

1. Again you're ignoring the fact which is the PATTERN CHANGE did occur. Whether the temps are slightly BN, AN or average the pattern change did occur and thats the point.

2. Yes and I said look at the first 7 days, not 11, and you will see they averaged -1 to -3 in the first week of January. 

3. There are some threats. I posted a graphic in the other thread showing the parallel Euro ensembles indicating light snow for Raleigh on the 17th, 150 hours out on wxbell maps I looked at.

4. The OBX of NC saw snow. Its quite unusual for them to see snow whether it be ocean effect or from a clipper or coastal bomb, snow is snow and they saw accumulating snow on the OBX which is unusual for them.

5. FWIW Columbia's average temperature is 56-57 for January. You should end up -2 to -4 for January. We will see in a few weeks. Your 10 day forecast has 3 out of 10 days above average and the other 7 below.

1....you are ignoring the fact that both RAH and CAE are still above normal and that's the point

2...slightly below couple of days to slightly above a couple of days = passing cold fronts

3...10 day away fantasies, not threats 

4....smh

5....CAE is +2.0 and my forecast calls for more of the same...wash rinse repeat

[franklin NCwx]

LOL, the yearly discussion about whether Virginia is southern is happening.

Just depends on the person you're talking to. Virginia is definitely Mid-Atlantic, but it can also be considered southern (after all, Richmond was the capital of the Confederacy). Likewise, NC is occasionally considered Mid-Atlantic, too. In the end, what difference does it make?

I understand why Southern VA posters post in this subforum, given how the Mid-Atlantic subform tends to revolve around the DC area. S VA has a climate more similar to the NC Piedmont and foothills than DC in many ways, anyways.

add to that the Fishel forecast that comes up every year.

[franklin NCwx]

TIGERS!!

[snowlover91]

1....you are ignoring the fact that both RAH and CAE are still above normal and that's the point

2...slightly below couple of days to slightly above a couple of days = passing cold fronts

3...10 day away fantasies, not threats 

4....smh

5....CAE is +2.0 and my forecast calls for more of the same...wash rinse repeat

 

1. No the pattern change is the point. People said in December the pattern change would not happen for January or if it did not until late January. It happened early January. We saw +20 to +30 anomalies in December with East Coast ridging. This month we have seen a weak East Coast trough. I'm not sure what your definition of pattern change is but irregardless the NWS and CPC have called the early January long wave pattern a "pattern change" and they are the official authorities on the matter. 

2. Your point is? Cold fronts always bring cold air and then it moderates within a few days. The key is the frequency of the cold and how well it sustains. In December it lasted 1-2 days at most before going well AN. This month we've had 3 out of 11 days AN. Big change.

3. Nope we have a threat at hour 150 on the Euro parallel and its ensembles. That's not fantasy land.

4. Here is an article from a local news station discussing the snow which occurred at the OBX and across much of Eastern NC on the 4th. http://wnct.com/2016/01/05/rare-weather-phenomenon-brings-snow-to-the-outer-banks/

5. Well that's your forecast and end of January will see how it verifies. You're calling for AN for January and I'm saying -2 to -4 BN across the SE for January. In a few weeks we will see what happens.

[SN_Lover]

Everybody just needs to go outside and watch a snow video Maybe next winter we will see snow  

[snowlover91]

Clemson vs Alabama game is a close one, hope Clemson can pull it out!

[magpiemaniac]

Clemson vs Alabama game is a close one, hope Clemson can pull it out!

I'd eat my left shoe if Clemson could pull this off. I absolutely cannot stand the Tide.

[snowlover91]

1....who are these people you keep talking about? what was being said was there was not a good chance for winter precip until later in Jan. That is still correct today. 

2....RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0....there hasn't been any sustained cold. none

3...wth would I need to read that

4...I'm saying average to slightly above....and it is. 

 

Let me summarize everything into this one question; do you think the pattern has changed in January compared with December? 

[franklin NCwx]

I'd eat my left shoe if Clemson could pull this off. I absolutely cannot stand the Tide.

if they win I hope to see pics.

[buckeyefan1]

Let me summarize everything into this one question; do you think the pattern has changed in January compared with December? 

The pattern has not changed into the cold and snowy one you kept trying to portray. It changed back to normal to slightly above that I stated wayyyyyyy back the first of December. 

[mackerel_sky]

Wow! Alabama! Beautiful ! Amazeballs!

[snowlover91]

The pattern has not changed into the cold and snowy one you kept trying to portray. It changed back to normal to slightly above that I stated wayyyyyyy back the first of December. 

 

That's a 55 degree rain for me...no threat there

 

I never said we were guaranteed snow but that the pattern would be colder and more favorable for it, which it is. A favorable pattern never guarantees snow here in the south. 

 

Agreed it is rain for your area which is to be expected in central SC. This disturbance, as all others in the SE, will be one of timing. Right now the cold looks like it will be in place the 17th for areas in NC and possible central GA/AL. If we can get the track a little further north we may see snow. I wouldn't expect much for SC from this system it looks more like a central GA/AL and NC system and possibly snow in the NW corner of SC if the moisture makes it that far north. 

[franklin NCwx]

Clemson being Clemson now.

[snowlover91]

Gutsy move by AL but it paid off with the onside kick recovery and TD a few plays later.

[Jonathan]

That'll do it...

[franklin NCwx]

Terrible special teams for Clemson tonight.

[wncsnow]

Outcoached for sure

[mackerel_sky]

2nd place is the 1st loser!

[buckeyefan1]

I never said we were guaranteed snow but that the pattern would be colder and more favorable for it, which it is. A favorable pattern never guarantees snow here in the south. 

 

Agreed it is rain for your area which is to be expected in central SC. . This disturbance, as all others in the SE, will be one of timing. Right now the cold looks like it will be in place the 17th for areas in NC and possible central GA/AL. If we can get the track a little further north we may see snow. I wouldn't expect much for SC from this system it looks more like a central GA/AL and NC system and possibly snow in the NW corner of SC if the moisture makes it that far north. 

colder and more favorable? no.there has been nothing favorable in the getting winter precip department. seasonal? yes. 

again won't work for most of us and as for the 17th there are too many ifs that need to come together for anything to work....odds are not in our favor. ya know the old saying...if my aunt had ballz she'd be my uncle

I don't need you to tell me what to expect....what I expect and what has happened has gone pretty well together for many decades now. 

[snowlover91]

Looks like Alabama will win this one unless Clemson pulls a miracle out..

[magpiemaniac]

You just can't give up that many big plays against those thugs.