January 2016 BANTER

[Cold Rain]

Laces out, Dan!

[snowlover91]

Where do you live? The fact remains just as I said back in December, normal to slightly above. yby is +.8 and mby is +2.0 for the month so far. That is above normal any way you slice it. I also said there was nothing that pointed to anything more than passing cold fronts for the first part of Jan and that's what has happened       

 

In other news......my livingroom is filled with screaming clemson fans      Gawd help me  

Well I did save your original post for reference, as promised Here is the link to the specific one. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47338-december-banter/?p=3797833

1. I said the models pointed to a pattern change early January, which is what we have. No matter how you slice it we do have a completely new 500mb pattern. No east coast ridge lasting for a week or longer, no 70+ degree temps for days at a time. The pattern is certainly a new one, you can call it "seasonal" or whatever you want but it's definitely a new pattern. If you don't believe me then you can read the NWS discussions, CPC, pro mets on here, etc who all are calling what we've seen in January a "pattern change." It certainly meets the conditions for it, that is, a new 500mb pattern.

2. I'm letting you know how my call in mid December worked out Remember back then people said January would torch all month? We are 1/3 of the way through and nowhere close to a torch with the next 9 out of 10 days BN here in central NC.

3. We have had blocking establish presently and it looks like it will continue for at least the next 5-7 days if not much longer (through February). Cold air is around and model guidance through day 7 shows it will be here to stay. By this time next week many areas (at least in NC) will be averaging month to date BN -3 to -5. My prediction for January was to be similar to analogs suggesting temps across the SE would average -2 to -4 for the month which looks on track. Nothing extreme like I think we see for February.

4. Zonal flow does equal warm but that wasn't my point in my original post December 15th. My full point was this: "the GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles are picking up on it [the pattern change] as their extended range shows a more zonal flow vs the cold west and warm east we've seen." I never said we would see a zonal flow or that we would be warm but that the models, in mid December, were dropping hints of the impending pattern change. I've been watching models for over 8 years now and know what hints they drop in the extended range and the hints we saw in mid-December for a cooler January pattern supportive of snow have turned out to be correct.

5. We did indeed see average to below average temps the first week of January, which was my point all along. I didn't say we would be in the freezer but instead we would see a pattern change to a cooler January, which is what we've seen thus far. I posted a map a few days ago that showed all of the SE for the first 7 days of January averaged -1 to -3 below normal. That's a big change from the +20 to even +30 anomalies we saw mid to late December. Sorry for the long post but you wanted me to let you know how it worked out

[Cold Rain]

Haha what is up with state basketball this year I expected them to be a tournament team... State football should improve your recruiting is decent, but Idk about your coaching

We have two mediocre coaches. We'll have some decent teams, but we won't ever really contend for anything meaningful. And some years, like this one, we'll contend for the bottom. We don't want to REALLY compete...as a school, I mean.

[buckeyefan1]

Above normal so far in JAN? For whom? YBY? Why do you dislike and belittle snowlover so much? He seems to be a nice guy. Much more civil than a lot of others here.

 

I've seen flakes twice in JAN and I'm running -5 for the month so far after running +17 in DEC. That's a temperature swing of -22! That's downright incredible for an 11 day turnaround.

 

 

Your facts apparently mean nothing. I think the definition of "pattern change" needs to be clarified.

RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0. So yes....for mby. How the heck am I belittling anyone? For saying this is what happened? Seriously?

 

You live in VA. Last I checked that was the MA.  

[Cold Rain]

Alabama has no chance.

[franklin NCwx]

Alabama has no chance.

lol..

[jshetley]

Clemson will probably lose this, but they have done 2 things Michigan State didn't do against Bama.

[jburns]

We've got ourselves a ballgame tonight.

[buckeyefan1]

 

1....normal to slightly below temps with passing cold fronts is what I said will happen and it did

2...I'm letting you know that it worked out just as expected. Nothing more nothing less.

3....we have blocking in the wrong place to do the southeast any good..see current and past weather for the first 11 days 

4...my point is a raging pacific brings warm air...this means rainstorms which is what we've had

5...RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0 for the first 11 days of Jan

[Shawn]

Bama doesnt look like Bama so far.  Eh, sucks for us here at South Carolina cause of recruiting in-state lol.

[franklin NCwx]

Wow block in the back.

[Cold Rain]

So, LED Christmas lights....

I have several strands where one of the lights will go dim intermittently for a few days and then go permanently dim (not out but dim). So, I take that light out of the socket and put it in a different socket, and it works fine. I put a good light in the empty socket and the good light is now dim.

I have noticed this with several different strands of LED lights. What is wrong and why does this happen?

Obviously with traditional lights, they eventually go out because they burn out. That's easy to fix.

[wncsnow]

RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0. So yes....for mby. How the heck am I belittling anyone? For saying this is what happened? Seriously?

 

You live in VA. Last I checked that was the MA.  

 

VA is like a split state, Danville is DEFINITELY not the Mid Atlantic, NOVA maybe so.

[Cold Rain]

Wow block in the back.

When that guy got up, his numbers were reversed.

[snowlover91]

1....normal to slightly below temps with passing cold fronts is what I said will happen and it did

2...I'm letting you know that it worked out just as expected. Nothing more nothing less.

3....we have blocking in the wrong place to do the southeast any good..see current and past weather for the first 11 days

4...my point is a raging pacific brings warm air...this means rainstorms which is what we've had

5...RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0 for the first 11 days of Jan

1. Either way it's a pattern change

2. It sure did, a cooler start to January.

3. We have a negative NAO, AO, a positive PNA and negative EPO. A favorable pattern doesn't guarantee snow in the SE, it just increases our chances and opportunities. We've been discussing multiple events and ensembles indicate the 17-18th could be at least a light snow for many, almost half of the Euro parallel ensembles show this. It's only 6 days out too.

4. We always have rainstorms in the SE even in cold patterns. Usually the low itself in cold patterns will scour the cold out and then it cools behind it. That's what happens the 14-15th due to a cutting low. After that the track looks suppressed and that is when we may see some accumulating snow. Oh and many in NC have seen snow including the Outerbanks where they saw snow covered roads January 4th.

5. Let me know what those averages look like the end of this week The first 7 days (first week of January) was what I original referenced as averaging BN. We saw -1 to -3 across the SE. The warmer air the past few days brought that up to a slight positive anomaly but it still remains that the first 7 days averaged BN across the SE.

[superjames1992]

This talk of temperature departures got me curious and apparently KGSO is 0.0 on the month so far. Completely average. Don't see that after 10 days too much. Of course, the month will be below average after today as it is quite cold today.

[jburns]

1. Either way it's a pattern change

2. It sure did, a cooler start to January.

3. We have a negative NAO, AO, a positive PNA and negative EPO. A favorable pattern doesn't guarantee snow in the SE, it just increases our chances and opportunities. We've been discussing multiple events and ensembles indicate the 17-18th could be at least a light snow for many, almost half of the Euro parallel ensembles show this. It's only 6 days out too.

4. We always have rainstorms in the SE even in cold patterns. Usually the low itself in cold patterns will scour the cold out and then it cools behind it. That's what happens the 14-15th due to a cutting low. After that the track looks suppressed and that is when we may see some accumulating snow. Oh and many in NC have seen snow including the Outerbanks where they saw snow covered roads January 4th.

5. Let me know what those averages look like the end of this week The first 7 days (first week of January) was what I original referenced as averaging BN. We saw -1 to -3 across the SE. The warmer air the past few days brought that up to a slight positive anomaly but it still remains that the first 7 days averaged BN across the SE.

 

Yeah.  A raging bay effect squall. lol You also might want to change the word "many".  The state, including the mountains, has been basically snowless.

[buckeyefan1]

1. Either way it's a pattern change

2. It sure did, a cooler start to January.

3. We have a negative NAO, AO, a positive PNA and negative EPO. A favorable pattern doesn't guarantee snow in the SE, it just increases our chances and opportunities. We've been discussing multiple events and ensembles indicate the 17-18th could be at least a light snow for many, almost half of the Euro parallel ensembles show this. It's only 6 days out too.

4. We always have rainstorms in the SE even in cold patterns. Usually the low itself in cold patterns will scour the cold out and then it cools behind it. That's what happens the 14-15th due to a cutting low. After that the track looks suppressed and that is when we may see some accumulating snow. Oh and many in NC have seen snow including the Outerbanks where they saw snow covered roads January 4th.

5. Let me know what those averages look like the end of this week The first 7 days (first week of January) was what I original referenced as averaging BN. We saw -1 to -3 across the SE. The warmer air the past few days brought that up to a slight positive anomaly but it still remains that the first 7 days averaged BN across the SE.

1...a change to normal. period. 

2...RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0

3...discussing events that were nothing more than a passing cold front 

4....the upper outerbanks did yes...you do know they go up near VA right?

5...CAE is +2.0 and my forecast calls for more of the same...I'm pretty sure it will read similar

6...it's the 11th and obviously whatever negative anomalies there might have been has been wiped out by the positive ones currently seen

7....you still haven't said where you live  

[Jonathan]

RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0. So yes....for mby. How the heck am I belittling anyone? For saying this is what happened? Seriously?

 

You live in VA. Last I checked that was the MA.  

 

Debatable. We had slaves. Capital of the Confederacy. Virginia is...er, used to be...the south. I do consider RIC-north part of the mid-atlantic, though. I live 20 miles from the NC border and I am much closer weather-wise to what happens in NC than MD. Usually whatever Frosty sees down in Surry County, I see a few minutes later. I'm only 50 miles from GSO.

 

VA is like a split state, Danville is DEFINITELY not the Mid Atlantic, NOVA maybe so.

 

Absolutely. Anyone who's ever been to or lived in southern VA and/or NoVA knows that this state is COMPLETELY different from south to north.

 

1. Either way it's a pattern change

2. It sure did, a cooler start to January.

3. We have a negative NAO, AO, a positive PNA and negative EPO. A favorable pattern doesn't guarantee snow in the SE, it just increases our chances and opportunities. We've been discussing multiple events and ensembles indicate the 17-18th could be at least a light snow for many, almost half of the Euro parallel ensembles show this. It's only 6 days out too.

4. We always have rainstorms in the SE even in cold patterns. Usually the low itself in cold patterns will scour the cold out and then it cools behind it. That's what happens the 14-15th due to a cutting low. After that the track looks suppressed and that is when we may see some accumulating snow. Oh and many in NC have seen snow including the Outerbanks where they saw snow covered roads January 4th.

5. Let me know what those averages look like the end of this week The first 7 days (first week of January) was what I original referenced as averaging BN. We saw -1 to -3 across the SE. The warmer air the past few days brought that up to a slight positive anomaly but it still remains that the first 7 days averaged BN across the SE.

 

You've done good, man. We don't have any snowfall to show for it, but we've absolutely had a pattern change. From a -PNA/+AO/+NAO/+EPO regime to a +PNA/--AO/-NAO/-EPO regime is an absolute total reversal of the pattern by the numbers. (AND by the temperatures.) Regardless of WHERE the blocks set up, we now have blocks where we didn't have blocks last month, even if we get the same result as far as rain vs snow.

 

Although most everyone has all but given up on SE snow in January, our pattern is completely different than it was in December. I have a sneaky feeling that even though everyone will be out of their minds by then, FEB is gonna make a lot of us happy.

[buckeyefan1]

Debatable. We had slaves. Capital of the Confederacy. Virginia is...er, used to be...the south. I do consider RIC-north part of the mid-atlantic, though. I live 20 miles from the NC border and I am much closer weather-wise to what happens in NC than MD. Usually whatever Frosty sees down in Surry County, I see a few minutes later. I'm only 50 miles from GSO.

 

You do realize Frosty lives in the mts/foothills right? His climate is nothing like here  

[Jonathan]

You do realize Frosty lives in the mts/foothills right? His climate is nothing like here  

 

True. And so am I. But we're still all in the "southeast". There are no official snowfall records kept in my little town (or even Martinsville for that matter) but based on surrounding areas of VA/NC, we average somewhere around 12-16" per year. So far we've been blanked, so I'm in the same boat as all of you in SC/GA too.

[snowlover91]

1...a change to normal. period. 

2...RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0

3...discussing events that were nothing more than a passing cold front

4....the upper outerbanks did yes...you do know they go up near VA right?

5...CAE is +2.0 and my forecast calls for more of the same...I'm pretty sure it will read similar

6...it's the 11th and obviously whatever negative anomalies there might have been has been wiped out by the positive ones currently seen

7....you still haven't said where you live

1. A pattern change nonetheless. Argue that with the cpc and NWS but it is a pattern change.

2. First 7 days -1 to -3, the first week of January. I'm not talking about the first 11 days but the first week specifically.

3. Either way we have threats that have been fracked off and on. Clippers work out sometimes for NC and VA, which is the area I usually am discussing.

4. Certainly but they're in NC regardless.

5. January should average -2 to -4 across the SE as a whole, we will see how it ends up.

6. Yes three days of positive anomalies did wipe them out I agree. Now we have 9 out of 10 days BN and the only AN day is forecast at 52 here in Raleigh, NC. Those anomalies will be -3 to -5 by this time next week.

7. Central NC

[wncsnow]

You do realize Frosty lives in the mts/foothills right? His climate is nothing like here  

SO are the mtns and foothills of NC and SC not the south too? The differences in architecture, city layout, land usage and geographical features really help delineate North V South not just state lines..

[buckeyefan1]

True. And so am I. But we're still all in the "southeast". There are no official snowfall records kept in my little town (or even Martinsville for that matter) but based on surrounding areas of VA/NC, we average somewhere around 12-16" per year. So far we've been blanked, so I'm in the same boat as all of you in SC/GA too.

Your climate is nothing like mine. Period. mby averages 2" of snow per year....not even close. VA is in the MA

 

1. A pattern change nonetheless. Argue that with the cpc and NWS but it is a pattern change.

2. First 7 days -1 to -3, the first week of January. I'm not talking about the first 11 days but the first week specifically.

3. Either way we have threats that have been fracked off and on. Clippers work out sometimes for NC and VA, which is the area I usually am discussing.

4. Certainly but they're in NC regardless.

5. January should average -2 to -4 across the SE as a whole, we will see how it ends up.

6. Yes three days of positive anomalies did wipe them out I agree. Now we have 9 out of 10 days BN and the only AN day is forecast at 52 here in Raleigh, NC. Those anomalies will be -3 to -5 by this time next week.

7. Central NC

1....I said normal to slightly above....this is what happened

2.....RAH is +.8 and CAE is +2.0 so far in Jan

3....there have been no threats...only 10 day fantasies 

4....smh

5....CAE is +2.0 already and my forecast calls for more of the same

6....you can't count something that hasn't happened yet

 

SO are the mtns and foothills of NC and SC not the south too? The differences in architecture, city layout, land usage and geographical features really help delineate North V South not just state lines..

They are the MTS...their climate is nothing like mine

[Cold Rain]

I got my Lysol! Looking for the sh!t storm on Sunday

Better spray up! I'm going with Febreze!

[mackerel_sky]

Better spray up! I'm going with Febreze!

Gotta try that poo-poori! I promise it's legit and works amazingly!

[franklin NCwx]

Horrible officiating at the end of the half.

[Jonathan]

Your climate is nothing like mine. Period. mby averages 2" of snow per year....not even close. VA is in the MA

 

 

So now you're the elite authority on geography? And based on climate and not location relative to the globe at that?

 

 

Ok, so maybe get the admin to re-arrange the regional forums by climate rather than location. Because right now, we're sorted by location, not climate. Sheesh. Then you can talk to shetley, max and snowstorm2011 instead of getting great reads from Pack, Cold Rain, snowlover91, Jon, grit and others.

 

I'm over this convo lol. We'll respectfully agree to disagree.

 

How 'bout them Tigers!

 

EDIT: Wikipedia says we're both right.

 

"Dark red states are usually included in definitions of the southeastern United States. Light red states are considered "southeastern" but with less frequency."

 

[wncsnow]

So now you're the elite authority on geography? And based on climate and not location relative to the globe at that?

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeastern_United_States​

 

Ok, so maybe get the admin to re-arrange the regional forums by climate rather than location. Because right now, we're sorted by location, not climate. Sheesh. Then you can talk to shetley, max and snowstorm2011 instead of getting great reads from Pack, Cold Rain, snowlover91, Jon, grit and others.

 

I'm over this convo lol. We'll respectfully agree to disagree.

 

How 'bout them Tigers!

 

I have lived and worked throughout VA, NC and MD and I can honestly say there are parts of VA that I consider more southern than the majority of NC. VA is much more rural and downhome except for Hampton Roads and NOVA/RIC. Bassett is in the foothills of VA not really the MTNS.. Look at the elevation

[buckeyefan1]

So now you're the elite authority on geography? And based on climate and not location relative to the globe at that?

 

Ok, so maybe get the admin to re-arrange the regional forums by climate rather than location. Because right now, we're sorted by location, not climate. Sheesh. Then you can talk to shetley, max and snowstorm2011 instead of getting great reads from Pack, Cold Rain, snowlover91, Jon, grit and others.

 

I'm over this convo lol. We'll respectfully agree to disagree.

 

How 'bout them Tigers!

I'm an elite authority because I'm saying VA is in the MA? I must have just made that up......wow....smh....I'm not sure what your problem is, but if you have anything else to say please feel free to pm me