FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah but you get my point. We are much more likely to successfully track something within 5 days (7 max) than from somewhere out where a majority of posters here seem to like looking first. 72 Hour events do still occur. The real point was that we are never in a sustained "ideal" pattern. It does not have to be perfect (as it usually isn't), and there is mass panic every single time the LR changes when it gets to short-mid - something every person in the SE should have accepted by now. We have to have something that is close to start with. Like a system just a little too far south and then starts a NW trend 3 to 4 days out; or a CAD that doesn't have a good high placement and then the high shifts into better alignment; etc.. If we see a cutter through the lakes at day 5, and most other models agree, we have little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We have to have something that is close to start with. Like a system just a little too far south and then starts a NW trend 3 to 4 days out; or a CAD that doesn't have a good high placement and then the high shifts into better alignment; etc.. If we see a cutter through the lakes at day 5, and most other models agree, we have little hope. well euro 6 days out def has potential and isnt far off, small changes would make for a big storm. will have to see if the ensembles support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nobody posts maps anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nobody posts maps anymore. Over here trying to respect Ryan and refrain from getting his site in trouble/screwing his customers over who get a fair deal... having to pay more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Over here trying to respect Ryan and refrain from getting his site in trouble/screwing his customers over who get a fair deal... having to pay more. Good call. I'll go to the free site as soon as it loads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Watching this forum is certainly entertaining, glad to be back on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Good call. I'll go to the free site as soon as it loads. Through 192, I think there are 3 possible threats. That 3rd could be narrowed down to a 2nd bigger one though... depending on what happens with other energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Through 192, I think there are 3 possible threats. 144 looks close and 144 and 168 look COLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 144 looks close and 144 and 168 look COLD!Guess day 6 and 7 cold is better than day 10-15 cold ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ok I'm going to ask. What happened to Pack? I know there was a huge argument/blowout going on. Does anybody know if he's coming back? I consider him one of the main pillars of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ok I'm going to ask. What happened to Pack? I know there was a huge argument/blowout going on. Does anybody know if he's coming back? I consider him one of the main pillars of this forum. He probably just gave the pattern a pooch punt for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 He probably just gave the pattern a pooch punt for now I sure hope that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nobody posts maps anymore. The runs today have been optimistic. Good trend for a couple of threats inside 7 days. Hopefully, it will continue and we can see some accumulation maps again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 55-60 degrees by this weekend = a perfect hiking day #pacjetrulesthewinter #warmandwetcontinues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 55-60 degrees by this weekend = a perfect hiking day #pacjetrulesthewinter #warmandwetcontinuesPickin up where pack left off, I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 55-60 degrees by this weekend = a perfect hiking day #pacjetrulesthewinter #warmandwetcontinues Well, you're not wrong. You're just an A-hole Love you, mean it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ok I'm going to ask. What happened to Pack? I know there was a huge argument/blowout going on. Does anybody know if he's coming back? I consider him one of the main pillars of this forum. Probably got tired of the same couple of posters in his shorts all day when he didn't make up fantastical anecdotes about the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Probably got tired of the same couple of posters in his shorts all day when he didn't make up fantastical anecdotes about the pattern.Must be some roomy shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Cold Rain is off the positivity train! Looks like Jon is the last man standing. I swear I'll throw in the towel when deemed necessary (I never gave the 1/8-1/9 threat time of day when people were going on and on about it)...I just don't see a reason to discount it yet! 1/18 definitely doesn't look great, but it doesn't look bad. Ensemble support has been trending well, we just have to figure out the cold (which has also been trending decently), the s/w will figure itself out, I guess. Op runs getting people discouraged honestly I haven't seen one in the last two days. Maybe the Euro but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I swear I'll throw in the towel when deemed necessary (I never gave the 1/8-1/9 threat time of day when people were going on and on about it)...I just don't see a reason to discount it yet! 1/18 definitely doesn't look great, but it doesn't look bad. Ensemble support has been trending well, we just have to figure out the cold (which has also been trending decently), the s/w will figure itself out, I guess. Op runs getting people discouraged honestly I haven't seen one in the last two days. Maybe the Euro but that's it. I'm right there with ya, I never expected anything before Jan 15th-18th period, there are plenty of indications the pattern will produce for us after that....There is almost zero chance that the GFS will lock in on a reliable threat until its inside of 5 days and it wont be a surprise it will just be agreeing with the Euro which will have had it run to run starting between day 5-7...so unless you where really expecting a storm by Jan 17/18th there is no reason to bail. If we don't get a legit threat to track between Jan17-27 I will be surprised, someone in the SE outside the mts will get measureable snow in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 55-60 degrees by this weekend = a perfect hiking day #pacjetrulesthewinter #warmandwetcontinues My local forecast has 1 day above normal at 52 and the rest are below average with low to mid 40s here in the Raleigh area. Nine out of 10 days below normal isn't too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 My local forecast has 1 day above normal at 52 and the rest are below average with low to mid 40s here in the Raleigh area. Nine out of 10 days below normal isn't too shabby The pattern still hasn't changed, though! Gotta be 20 degrees BN with double-digit snowfall that's un-hike-able in order to classify as a pattern change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The pattern has very obviously changed. Just because it's not providing snow doesn't mean it hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The pattern has very obviously changed. Just because it's not providing snow doesn't mean it hasn't changed. I agree, we've been in a completely different pattern since the first week of January. I think it will produce some snow soon but it's hard to nail down when. I like the 16-18th as the Euro ensembles, the high res ones, are keying in for at least some light snow around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Some say they love this pattern, some say they don't. Who do we believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Some say they love this pattern, some say they don't. Who do we believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So, what's everyone's National Championship prediction? I'm going 20-14 'Bama Alabama 20 Clemson 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 two of the best offenses in the NCAA. I'm going 48-36 Bama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 31-27 Clemson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Personally, I think Clemson is going to get wrecked by Henry alone. A lot of trash talk to Bama defense and run game from Clemson players. Nick wants to win one more before he's gone. As a Carolina fan, I don't dislike Clemson or Dabo so much.. as I can't stand most of their fans. They are obnoxious around here. Let me put it this way. North Carolina played them close. South Carolina played them pretty hard considering how horrible we were. Nick Saban has been and knows how to win on the big stage. Not sure if Dabo has it in him yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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