Jonathan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Cold Rain is off the positivity train! Looks like Jon is the last man standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Cold Rain is off the positivity train! Looks like Jon is the last man standing. Haha not really...I still think there are opportunities for a storm to pop up in the 17-25 time frame and then into Feb. The pattern is not ideal, but that's not a prerequisite. I'd still like to see it evolve more favorably instead of going the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Haha not really...I still think there are opportunities for a storm to pop up in the 17-25 time frame and then into Feb. The pattern is not ideal, but that's not a prerequisite. I'd still like to see it evolve more favorably instead of going the other way. Keep in mind Larry did the stats on strong ninos and more of our 2+ inch snows came with a pos nao not neg for RDU. Beleive it was you or someone who just posted over in discussion thread about pna, that was a valid point / ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Keep in mind Larry did the stats on strong ninos and more 9f our 2+ inch snows came with a pos nao not neg for RDU. Beleive it was you or someone who just posted over in discussion thread about pna, that was a valid point / ?. Yeah, I remember seeing that. I wonder if it's because the NAO had just moved from a negative to a positive state? Anyway, if we're going to have a +NAO, I'd like to see some cold air find a way to make it into the pattern. 40s and 50s are not torchy, but we've got to do better in the temp department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Haha not really...I still think there are opportunities for a storm to pop up in the 17-25 time frame and then into Feb. The pattern is not ideal, but that's not a prerequisite. I'd still like to see it evolve more favorably instead of going the other way. I think this is an understatement. When was the last time we had a sustained "favorable" pattern? 2010/2011? It' has still snowed somewhere in the south during the last couple of unfavorable patterns (I think my only shut out was 2011/2012). It's just never going to be exactly what we'd prefer. Someone in the SE will get snow this winter. I'll even go out on a limb and say someone outside elevation. I'm also willing to bet it won't be from something modeled 10 days out, because that's the exception. I'll never understand all the salty posts about "always 10 days out". That's not a new concept. The big systems that we track from the 23rd century are fun when they actually produce. It's just not as common as the "Surprise MF's!" left jab that shows up 72 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think this is an understatement. When was the last time we had a sustained "favorable" pattern? 2010/2011? It' has still snowed somewhere in the south during the last couple of unfavorable patterns (I think my only shut out was 2011/2012). It's just never going to be exactly what we'd prefer. Someone in the SE will get snow this winter. I'll even go out on a limb and say someone outside elevation. I'm also willing to bet it won't be from something modeled 10 days out, because that's the exception. I'll never understand all the salty posts about "always 10 days out". That's not a new concept. The big systems that we track from the 23rd century are fun when they actually produce. It's just not as common as the "Surprise MF's!" left jab that shows up 72 hours away. I think it's just a product of how we track storms these days. Even 15 years ago when I started posting, we did not have the tools at hand that we have now. There's also much less of a chance of a positive surprise it seems, these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think this is an understatement. When was the last time we had a sustained "favorable" pattern? 2010/2011? It' has still snowed somewhere in the south during the last couple of unfavorable patterns (I think my only shut out was 2011/2012). It's just never going to be exactly what we'd prefer. Someone in the SE will get snow this winter. I'll even go out on a limb and say someone outside elevation. I'm also willing to bet it won't be from something modeled 10 days out, because that's the exception. I'll never understand all the salty posts about "always 10 days out". That's not a new concept. The big systems that we track from the 23rd century are fun when they actually produce. It's just not as common as the "Surprise MF's!" left jab that shows up 72 hours away. Yeah, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 lets bring back the eta and throw the rest away. that way, we can all jump for joy when it misses the crusher. the numerical crunch gods hate us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Very true. The reality of weather only happens in current time. Best model based scientific guesses are still just that, a guess based on history. Over the years I personally have gotten away from model watching or crunching analog years. Not to say I do not follow mid-long term guidance. But in the winter, anything outside of 48 Hrs should be taken with a big of pile of salt. With that said, bring the snow. I think it's just a product of how we track storms these days. Even 15 years ago when I started posting, we did not have the tools at hand that we have now. There's also much less of a chance of a positive surprise it seems, these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Total meltdown on the other board today. Things are getting ugly in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I really don't think storms just pop up anymore, at least it's highly unlikely. Within 5-7 days I don't think it's a reach to either expect to see a storm or not. Details about the cold, shifts in track of course will still fluctuate. But at a 5 day lead confidence should be pretty high on winter storm potential imo. Just a bit of a pet peeve of mine on the whole "models just are lost" statements. I don't think they're as lost as many think they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Total meltdown on the other board today. Things are getting ugly in a hurry That place is a cluster anyways. 92% banter in the weather discussion thread. Much worse than these parts. I think if they would put up a harder captcha or spam question, they'd be able to eliminate 99% of their posters from even registering. ROFL Before banned, I posted over there for a few people. Hate the community is split with those guys now.. but I just can't take the morons. Larry, SD, Storm, Fred, Steve, Tony. Come to the good side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It worked on that Cuttwood guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I really don't think storms just pop up anymore, at least it's highly unlikely. Within 5-7 days I don't think it's a reach to either expect to see a storm or not. Details about the cold, shifts in track of course will still fluctuate. But at a 5 day lead confidence should be pretty high on winter storm potential imo. Just a bit of a pet peeve of mine on the whole "models just are lost" statements. I don't think they're as lost as many think they are. Really hard to tell if they are lost or not past a couple of days with every run being different than the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That place is a cluster anyways. 92% banter in the weather discussion thread. Much worse than these parts. I think if they would put up a harder captcha or spam question, they'd be able to eliminate 99% of their posters from even registering. ROFL Before banned, I posted over there for a few people. Hate the community is split with those guys now.. but I just can't take the morons. Larry, SD, Storm, Fred, Steve, Tony. Come to the good side. I was also banned from that board and I'm glad I was now. This board is much much better in every way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It worked on that Cuttwood guy! Didn't it turn out that Cuttwood was Starburst or something? lol and corey ticked him off again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Total meltdown on the other board today. Things are getting ugly in a hurry Luckily, I brought my trident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Snow is serious business. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Well well well GFS. I see what you wanna do. Prob won't quite get it done.. but eh.. I've seen worse... and it's right at hour 192.. cutoff into texas.. blah blah blah. not bad. icy look into LA/MS or so. cool Anyways, its past 192.. have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's CR's fault, the models went to crap when he changed his signature. Told you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I would like to congratulate the Raleigh folks for making it through the worst this winter has to offer. Today begins the increase in the daily average temperatures that ends on July ninth at a comfortable 90.4º. January 10 50.3º January 11 50.4º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I would like to congratulate the Raleigh folks for making it through the worst this winter has to offer. Today begins the increase in the daily average temperatures that ends on July ninth at a comfortable 90.4º. January 10 50.3º January 11 50.4º It's been brutal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 LOL, pretty funny , also the days are getting longer........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I really don't think storms just pop up anymore, at least it's highly unlikely. Within 5-7 days I don't think it's a reach to either expect to see a storm or not. Details about the cold, shifts in track of course will still fluctuate. But at a 5 day lead confidence should be pretty high on winter storm potential imo. Just a bit of a pet peeve of mine on the whole "models just are lost" statements. I don't think they're as lost as many think they are. I agree. I have mixed feelings. i have a feeling one of those LP centers will take dominance over them all. I think right now we know there will be LP and SW in the area causing increased storminess. where the dominant low sets up and track is TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Snow is serious business. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 LOL, pretty funny , also the days are getting longer........... that's a good thing. I love snow but I hate the shorter days in winter. Bring on 9pm sunsets !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Snow is serious business. I guess. Just about right, except I think the pill popping depression kicks in a lot sooner around 240 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I really don't think storms just pop up anymore, at least it's highly unlikely. Within 5-7 days I don't think it's a reach to either expect to see a storm or not. Details about the cold, shifts in track of course will still fluctuate. But at a 5 day lead confidence should be pretty high on winter storm potential imo. Just a bit of a pet peeve of mine on the whole "models just are lost" statements. I don't think they're as lost as many think they are. Yeah but you get my point. We are much more likely to successfully track something within 5 days (7 max) than from somewhere out where a majority of posters here seem to like looking first. 72 Hour events do still occur. The real point was that we are never in a sustained "ideal" pattern. It does not have to be perfect (as it usually isn't), and there is mass panic every single time the LR changes when it gets to short-mid - something every person in the SE should have accepted by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Good chance even the mountains will ace out with no significant snow in the month of January. At least we have had 3 dust ups ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 incoming dynamite euro run? as the world of models turn something is about to give for amazing or absolutely horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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