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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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All hope is not lost for something this coming weekend.

 

Blacksburg AFD for this upcoming weekend

 

TIMING VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR
ROUGHLY A FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARRIVAL FOR THE FIRST. THE
SECOND WILL BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. EACH OF THESE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A P-TYPE QUESTION. WHILE
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITHIN THE MODELS...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
OF SOME DEGREE OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM ABOVE
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT A RAIN
VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND...A RAIN SHOWER VERSUS SNOW SHOWER FORECAST IS MORE
LIKELY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST OF THE AREA. AGAIN...GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE
TIMING...BUT CURRENTLY THAT APPEARS TO BE EITHER A SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING EVENT.

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They are? 

 

I think after a certain point you have to remember that most people don't have the advanced education in higher algebra, statistics and probability, chaos theory, and exponentially compounding errors to really understand what the math behind a model is really doing.  There just aren't that many people diving that deeply into these subjects in higher education, and certainly not a lot of them running around a message board for laymen weather fans.

 

Mathematical weather models are still in their infancy, in the grand scheme of all human endeavor.

 

No amount of reminding people that looking at models more than a few days out is useless in terms of specificity seems to work.  So it's best just to save your sanity and not take the bait. :D

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I think after a certain point you have to remember that most people don't have the advanced education in higher algebra, statistics and probability, chaos theory, and exponentially compounding errors to really understand what the math behind a model is really doing.  There just aren't that many people diving that deeply into these subjects in higher education, and certainly not a lot of them running around a message board for laymen weather fans.

 

Mathematical weather models are still in their infancy, in the grand scheme of all human endeavor.

 

No amount of reminding people that looking at models more than a few days out is useless in terms of specificity seems to work.  So it's best just to save your sanity and not take the bait. :D

I don't let them bother me....I just want them to explain themselves. I'm just curious why numerical models bug them so much.

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