max100 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Excellent,, mid 50s for ATL next weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Oh, just wait. The Euro will be out soon... to start things off... then ... the true panic won't be seen until about 8-10am tomorrow morning as people catch up on it and the 06z GFS. It's going to be absolutely glorious.No panic, just joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's unreal how inconsistent these models have been No it's not. Numerical models are always more inconsistent in the cold season. There are too many interacting variables, parameterizations, assumptions, complex atmos theory, inaccurate initial states, etc, to expect the models to perform consistently with time or without inherent error. The main thing to take away from inconsistent model solns is the degree of certainty. The models are showing much uncertainty in the ext range, which is not not unusual at all in the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 No it's not. Numerical models are always more inconsistent in the cold season. There are too many interacting variables, parameterizations, assumptions, complex atmos theory, inaccurate initial states, etc, to expect the models to perform consistently with time or without inherent error. The main thing to take away from inconsistent model solns is the degree of certainty. The models are showing much uncertainty in the ext range, which is not not unusual at all in the cold season.Good post isohume. I think quite a few people forget this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lol. Local met is calling for rain next weekend in the mountains. If that happens I might boot this winter all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Good post isohume. I think quite a few people forget this. Just to add to that a bit...the ensembles can explicitly show the uncertainty in the LR solns, but that doesn't indicate their means are necessarily better than a specific op run. Outliers can and do turn out to be closer to the actual patterns at times due to all the uncertainties listed above. Ensembles are just an additional way to gauge the degree of model uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just to add to that a bit...the ensembles can explicitly show the uncertainty in the LR solns, but that doesn't indicate their means are necessarily better than a specific op run. Outliers can and do turn out to be closer to the actual patterns at times due to all the uncertainties listed above. Ensembles are just an additional way to gauge the degree of model uncertainty. So, the typical weenie should grasp on to the outliers as gospel truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So, the typical weenie should grasp on to the outliers as gospel truth. Only if they show cold and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Guys, I come with wonderful news. I had a dream, a very white one. Panthers were destroying the Skins In near Blizzard conditions, I can only presume that I have seen the near future and it looks snowy in the Queen City next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just to add to that a bit...the ensembles can explicitly show the uncertainty in the LR solns, but that doesn't indicate their means are necessarily better than a specific op run. Outliers can and do turn out to be closer to the actual patterns at times due to all the uncertainties listed above. Ensembles are just an additional way to gauge the degree of model uncertainty.Ah ok. Good to know. Thanks again isohume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Guys, I come with wonderful news. I had a dream, a very white one. Panthers were destroying the Skins In near Blizzard conditions, I can only presume that I have seen the near future and it looks snowy in the Queen City next weekend. Glory be to this wonderful vision! It sounds so beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Guys, I come with wonderful news. I had a dream, a very white one. Panthers were destroying the Skins In near Blizzard conditions, I can only presume that I have seen the near future and it looks snowy in the Queen City next weekend. Sounds like a wet* dream. *and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I'm not even dreaming of snow anymore, I'm dreaming of may at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z GFS puts 20 inches down in ENC around the 20th. Well, that's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z GFS puts 20 inches down in ENC around the 20th. Well, that's fun to look at. Looks great! Still way out but at least we know the overall pattern can produce. All we need to know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Let me guess, everyone is optimistic again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Let me guess, everyone is optimistic again? I think you can guess 1 or 2 that are not!I like the Euro fantasy storm from yesterday better than the GFS run today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Let me guess, everyone is optimistic again? I think you can guess 1 or 2 that are not! I like the Euro fantasy storm from yesterday better than the GFS run today! I am very optimistic, only 48 days till March and warmth...wait we got the warmth already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Let me guess, everyone is optimistic again? Not optimistic in any form, but not pessimistic either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 If this don't scream SE snowstorm I don't know what does...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I am very optimistic, only 48 days till March and warmth...wait we got the warmth already actually 51 days until March but you were close !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So now GFS = right again? Euro is the wrong one right? It's so hard to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So now GFS = right again? Euro is the wrong one right? It's so hard to keep up.And all show torch and 98 redux, per pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 And all show torch and 98 redux, per pack There could be 60 inches of snow at packs house and he would still see a reason to be down on it. Anyways, I'm not on board unless ensembles/ euro hint or have it. (12z GFS snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I am very optimistic, only 48 days till March and warmth...wait we got the warmth already We do? I think today and this upcoming week would beg to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lol at the Seahawks punter! Epic fail! Looked like a Pack post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I hope the Euro run is a torch and fail, Pack may make an "O" face ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I hope the Euro run is a torch and fail, Pack may make an "O" face ! Oh the euro is running, let me get what is shows for day 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I hope the Euro run is a torch and fail, Pack may make an "O" face ! Why did you remind me of the euro, I was expecting bad but it's worse than bad...well unless you like a warm rain. Maybe some severe tracking next weekend instead of fantasy snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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