buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Guys, it's raining outside. At one point the models had this "rain" as Winter weather fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 everyone needs to relax, it will happen...the SE is going to get snow......the chances of the models seeing any individual threat clearly outside of 5 days is nil and even inside of that its sketchy right now....watch the 00Z's tonight go big snowstorm again and everyone crying today will be all excited again only to have those hopes smashed by the 06Z in the morning again.....there are 20+ days left in Jan and the overall setup is good just let it play out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 everyone needs to relax, it will happen...the SE is going to get snow......the chances of the models seeing any individual threat clearly outside of 5 days is nil and even inside of that its sketchy right now....watch the 00Z's tonight go big snowstorm again and everyone crying today will be all excited again only to have those hopes smashed by the 06Z in the morning again.....there are 20+ days left in Jan and the overall setup is good just let it play out..... I wish more people would pay attention to those trying to save a lot of headaches and to use ensemble guidance. These back and forth OP runs are seriously hazardous to health. Jon and a couple others have talked themselves blue in the face with how the ensembles have had these storms the OP runs try to show for over a week. Ensembles are better at far range! What the Euro OP showed has been shown off and on between both ensemble suites for a while. The signal is there. Details are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 But it is fun to watch that roller coaster of emotions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This is from FFC from Thursday through Saturday of next week : NO THREATS FROM CONVECTION...HVY RAIN OR WINTER PRECIP SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For once, I'm not a total weenie in my hopes, as my wife is due with our first child on the 16th. I actually wouldn't want that ridiculous overnight Euro to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just for kicks, I just went to a major financial website this afternoon and read a bunch of blog/posts/comments on the future of oil prices. As it happened, for a moment there I thought I was reading the SE AMWx forum -- up/down/good/bad/gloom/profit/buy/sell - all based on modeling (financial). Think I reinforced a bit of a modeling lesson in my own space ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Just for kicks, I just went to a major financial website this afternoon and read a bunch of blog/posts/comments on the future of oil prices. As it happened, for a moment there I thought I was reading the SE AMWx forum -- up/down/good/bad/gloom/profit/buy/sell - all based on modeling (financial). Think I reinforced a bit of a modeling lesson in my own space ... there are weenies in every hobby im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 there are weenies in every hobby im sure. i wasn't referring to weenies - just to sophisticated math models that are just that - models in any context - and to folks who base their whole existence/livelihood on them and here we are watching weather .... much prefer our avocation gigo sometimes comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 i wasn't referring to weenies - just to sophisticated math models that are just that - models in any context - and to folks who base their whole existence/livelihood on them and here we are watching weather .... much prefer our avocation gigo sometimes comes to mind weenies as in those that live and die by each model run (weather or financial). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 weenies as in those that live and die by each model run (weather or financial). I take it we're on the same page! Here's to whatever happens .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For once, I'm not a total weenie in my hopes, as my wife is due with our first child on the 16th. I actually wouldn't want that ridiculous overnight Euro to verify. Congrats on the first child! It's the SE. Snow chances are always remote. Oh, by the way, it looks like you're going the wrong way...according to your avatar, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like the first snowfall of the season is on top for most of Middle TN tonight and in the morning. Over an inch possible north of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let me go ahead and predict that the 18z GFS "isn't going to cut it this run." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The GFS is so bad of a run that nobody wants to speak of it. I'm sure it's wrong because it doesn't show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Early spring all year long, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Let me go ahead and predict that the 18z GFS "isn't going to cut it this run." Actually, it WILL cut...right up the Apps with a +NAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks like I will be out grilling during the playoff games. Nothing like shorts, flip-flops, burgers, and beer on Jan. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I go for skiing down the interstate to sitting at the game in shorts and sunscreen, I love model watching Not that warm obviously, but funny the changes that happen in our little forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Actually, it WILL cut...right up the Apps with a +NAO! Lol. It takes us 1/3 of the winter to get a good pattern to show up in the LR and it breaks down in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lol. It takes us 1/3 of the winter to get a good pattern to show up in the LR and it breaks down in a day. Sounds like a cruel joke, doesn't it? 18z summary for folks just joining us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looks a lot like the 1989 winter. Cold out west and warm in the east. Hopefully this spring and summer will be like they were that year. A winter like 2012 would also work for me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wooo roller coaster emotions!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The negativity by some folks and mood swings in less than 24 hours is ridiculous. I don't know how folks can go through life with such negative and pessimistic attitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Chris Justus is still talking cold and snow. He stands little chance of being right, at least about any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm putting all of my hopes on some flurries tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The negativity by some folks and mood swings in less than 24 hours is ridiculous. I don't know how folks can go through life with such negative and pessimistic attitudes. I know... I find it hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lol. It takes us 1/3 of the winter to get a good pattern to show up in the LR and it breaks down in a day. Guess that means it has to be right since it happened in less than 24 hours after the models were also showing promise for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The negativity by some folks and mood swings in less than 24 hours is ridiculous. I don't know how folks can go through life with such negative and pessimistic attitudes. I admire your optimism in the face of Greg Fischel saying there was a 72% chance of less than an inch of January snow in Wake county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yeah, Fishel is never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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