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January 2016 BANTER


Isopycnic

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everyone needs to relax, it will happen...the SE is going to get snow......the chances of the models seeing any individual threat clearly outside of 5 days is nil and even inside of that its sketchy right now....watch the 00Z's tonight go big snowstorm again and everyone crying today will be all excited again only to have those hopes smashed by the 06Z in the morning again.....there are 20+ days left in Jan and the overall setup is good just let it play out.....

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everyone needs to relax, it will happen...the SE is going to get snow......the chances of the models seeing any individual threat clearly outside of 5 days is nil and even inside of that its sketchy right now....watch the 00Z's tonight go big snowstorm again and everyone crying today will be all excited again only to have those hopes smashed by the 06Z in the morning again.....there are 20+ days left in Jan and the overall setup is good just let it play out.....

 

I wish more people would pay attention to those trying to save a lot of headaches and to use ensemble guidance.  These back and forth OP runs are seriously hazardous to health.

 

Jon and a couple others have talked themselves blue in the face with how the ensembles have had these storms the OP runs try to show for over a week.  Ensembles are better at far range!  What the Euro OP showed has been shown off and on between both ensemble suites for a while.  The signal is there.  Details are not.

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Just for kicks, I just went to a major financial website this afternoon and read a bunch of blog/posts/comments on the future of oil prices. As it happened, for a moment there I thought I was reading the SE AMWx forum -- up/down/good/bad/gloom/profit/buy/sell - all based on modeling (financial).

 

Think I reinforced a bit of a modeling lesson in my own space ...

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Just for kicks, I just went to a major financial website this afternoon and read a bunch of blog/posts/comments on the future of oil prices. As it happened, for a moment there I thought I was reading the SE AMWx forum -- up/down/good/bad/gloom/profit/buy/sell - all based on modeling (financial).

 

Think I reinforced a bit of a modeling lesson in my own space ...

there are weenies in every hobby im sure.

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there are weenies in every hobby im sure.

i wasn't referring to weenies - just to sophisticated math models that are just that - models in any context - and to folks who base their whole existence/livelihood on them

 

and here we are watching weather .... much prefer our avocation

 

gigo sometimes comes to mind

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i wasn't referring to weenies - just to sophisticated math models that are just that - models in any context - and to folks who base their whole existence/livelihood on them

 

and here we are watching weather .... much prefer our avocation

 

gigo sometimes comes to mind

weenies as in those that live and die by each model run (weather or financial).

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For once, I'm not a total weenie in my hopes, as my wife is due with our first child on the 16th. I actually wouldn't want that ridiculous overnight Euro to verify.

Congrats on the first child! It's the SE. Snow chances are always remote.

Oh, by the way, it looks like you're going the wrong way...according to your avatar, at least. :)

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The negativity by some folks and mood swings in less than 24 hours is ridiculous. I don't know how folks can go through life with such negative and pessimistic attitudes.

 

I admire your optimism in the face of Greg Fischel saying there was a 72% chance of less than an inch of January snow in Wake county.   :devilsmiley:

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