packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What was that based on? Everything heading into this winter pointed to us being above average. Who said that? 83 and 98 were our best analogs to this winter and if 83 hadn't had that miracle end of March snow we would have been below 5". Sure we can hit a one hit wonder, but that's what it's going to take this winter for our area. I really thought w-NC would clean up but it's needs to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sing it with me: The FAIL Boat...soon will be making another run The FAIL Boat...nothing exciting or new The euro, UKMet , and JMA will save us! It's just the GFS being the GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Who said that? 83 and 98 were our best analogs to this winter and if 83 hadn't had that miracle end of March snow we would have been below 5". Sure we can hit a one hit wonder, but that's what it's going to take this winter for our area. I really thought w-NC would clean up but it's needs to get going. Allan said it for one. Robert said it. Lots of other mets gave good evidence based on the factors we should have headed into this winter why we should be above average for snowfall here. It just seems to me you are pessimistic all the time no matter what. That attitude and then saying over and over about how you said we would be lucky to get 5 inches is just irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think it's important everyone remains positive. The atmos senses negative waves and responds accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Allan said it for one. Robert said it. Lots of other mets gave good evidence based on the factors we should have headed into this winter why we should be above average for snowfall here. It just seems to me you are pessimistic all the time no matter what. That attitude and then saying over and over about how you said we would be lucky to get 5 inches is just irritating. Just out of curiosity, why do you get so offended when he says he expects RDU to get 5" of snow? If he said he expected 30", you'd be all in on that. Yeah yeah yeah yeah!!!!! But it's the same thing. It's just one person making a prediction. Nothing more, nothing less. It's quite ok to have a bearish forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 My 6 year old told me today...'hey Dad, it's going to snow today because it's cold'. I told him..."hey son, don't be a Brick". ..."Don't be a Brick"...LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Disappointed to see that our pattern we thought was great, is pretty crappy actually for snow. But glad to learn the why and hows of it on the board. I'm just sayin, if there's no fantasy snowstorms in the 7-10 day range, there's a reason for it. It's like fishing, if you don't get any bites, you got to move on to another spot....you're just wasting your time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Funny how everybody was waiting on the impossible to get -NAO to return, after 5 year wait, and it is looking to bring us diddly squat! -NAO, how I've missed the! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Allan said it for one. Robert said it. Lots of other mets gave good evidence based on the factors we should have headed into this winter why we should be above average for snowfall here. It just seems to me you are pessimistic all the time no matter what. That attitude and then saying over and over about how you said we would be lucky to get 5 inches is just irritating. Did I say "lucky"? I meant "really lucky" to near impossible. You see my avatar? You don't get a gem like that (30 yr snow average) by getting years with more than 5", LOL. Besides, I think you get 6", that's what 2" under your seasonal snowfall average. Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Funny how everybody was waiting on the impossible to get -NAO to return, after 5 year wait, and it is looking to bring us diddly squat! -NAO, how I've missed the! -NAO is for suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hopefully the 12z GFS is wrong. 6z was much better with more precip and a nice warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think it's important everyone remains positive. The atmos senses negative waves and responds accordingly. That is so funny, I should make this my signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS is for suckers.truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 -NAO is for suckers. That is true it seems as the last two winters were positive NAO and we had big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Do you think any professional weather people actually lose sleep over individual runs? Well maybe DT... Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We haven't had a blocky looking pattern like this in several years.....I'm not too worried about the fine details at this point. The big picture is favorable for winter weather. If we could scrape out a couple of snows the last few years with crappy patterns, I'm excited to see what transpires during the coming weeks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 This pattern feels like cheering for a sports team that looks and should be the best, but always worrying they are going to lay an egg and not win the championship. Kinda like Tarhole Football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Kinda like Tarhole Football Probably applies more to Carolina basketball than football. No one ever thought the football team was going to be the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I really feel if we don't get anything next week, it's just setting the stage for something better the last two weeks of January and heading into February. The overall pattern is still better than what we usually see for getting snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Kinda like Tarhole Football Kinda like Panthers football this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Nice pattern we in and going to be in per models, Beautiful blocking with lake cutters nice real nice!!! I'm beginning to think all these analogs and indices all that crap is just that a crapshoot! we've had the worst indices possible and can get a snowstorm! we have all this hype from models, we going to be in the best pattern set up in many years and can't even buy winter storm threat. Weather is a funny thing. haha!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Kinda like Panthers football this year. enjoy the first pick in the draft...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 enjoy the first pick in the draft...again. Oh, we will! Build an O-line around Mariota, who's a total STUD...we have Dick LeBeau, one of the greatest defensive minds in NFL history...Bill Polian/Peyton Manning are looking into buying the franchise...good times incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ladies and gentlemen, THIS is what I was alluding to earlier! This is not far from a big SE winter storm. No cutter on this map. Miller B, possibly. Look at the Greenland block. Look at the PV acting as a 50/50 low, locking confluence over the NE. Only fly in the ointment is the Lakes Low. It may or may not be there at game time, but this map is a much, much better map than the one I posted earlier and is VERY close to what we're looking for. f216.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 enjoy the first pick in the draft...again. heh...keep pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Kinda like Panthers football this year. enjoy the first pick in the draft...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You guys need to stop posting all those west based -nao maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Oh, we will! Build an O-line around Mariota, who's a total STUD...we have Dick LeBeau, one of the greatest defensive minds in NFL history...Bill Polian/Peyton Manning are looking into buying the franchise...good times incoming! Dude is 78 years old. Not saying you're wrong...but how many good years can he possibly have left? Maybe 2? This is like me bragging that we have a healthy Jerry Richardson this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Starting next weekend I'll be in Amsterdam for two weeks so you might as well lock in a record-breaking snowfall during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Starting next weekend I'll be in Amsterdam for two weeks so you might as well lock in a record-breaking snowfall during that period. I have seen this line of thinking thrown around a 100 times over the last five years and I can count on one hand the number of times it actually worked out that way... .............. haha Seriously though, enjoy Amsterdam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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