max100 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 According to Max, we don't even get the cold! Please tell me if you see differently? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I knew the El Nino would die down some once the cold air got in here! Pattern flip it is. we flipped the active STJ apparently also! lol Oh but wait, once we warm up, it will get active again.......... Before the cold got in here it would rain every 2-3 days now it's dry as a bone! Such is winter in the southeast!!! That's why we never need big arctic outbreaks nothing but cold/dry when that happens. I just want cold high pressure to the north, NEVER overpowering cold..... That's just me! I know some love cold and dry! I hate it. Rant over for now! Just for the record, I think we still end up above normal in the snow dept for the year. I think we will have 2-4 storms once we get it going............. I hate the really cold air, too. Usually just means dry. I don't think it rained here every 2 or 3 days with the Nino since the start of fall, though. But we did seem to have rain systems move in every week, and they would stick around for 2 or 3 days. Then it was maybe 5 to 7 days of dry weather before the rain came again, and it would stay around for 2 or 3 days again. That is what I am hoping continues. If the precip sticks around for a couple of days like that, maybe there will be increased chances it meets up with cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Have to remind myself of this to stay positive. But it also makes it harder to be patient knowing this. For example, the warm (positive) phase of the ENSO cycle, better known as El Niño, typically results in a more active southern jet stream, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation across the southeastern U.S. during the winter. When a negative NAO is in place during an El Niño winter, cold, Arctic air is transported towards the southeastern U.S. with enhanced precipitation potential due to the El Niño effect, and research at the SCO has found that the number of snow days in NC increase significantly in all four winter months. Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Please tell me if you see differently? Thanks Do you know what sort of pattern comes about with a -NAO, -AO and +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Do you know what sort of pattern comes about with a -NAO, -AO and +PNA? weenies like him take long range model runs as gospel. indices are too hard to understand and it is much easier to live and die by the gfs at 240+hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Do you know what sort of pattern comes about with a -NAO, -AO and +PNA? Cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Do you know what sort of pattern comes about with a -NAO, -AO and +PNA? I think Max is looking for overwhelming arctic blasts pv intrusions stratospheric subductions ice age type cold. I agree with him. It's just not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Do you know what sort of pattern comes about with a -NAO, -AO and +PNA?Should be cold and stormy? Maybe all the indices are wrong , and the 324 hour GFS op run is right? That would suck horribly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Cold rain? Maybe for you, but up this way it's coldER rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Should be cold and stormy? Maybe all the indices are wrong , and the 324 hour GFS op run is right? That would suck horribly! Well, we are in areas where we kind of suck at winning snow games, even when things line up and seem mostly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow. Nat Gas is the only energy up today. Up .6% to 2.34 per mbtu. Still up very nicely over the last couple of weeks. But RBOB (Gas you put in your car) is down 5.5% today to 1.187 per gallon (need to add taxes and transport cost). I did fill up for 1.55 yesterday which was nice. Interesting is heating oil is down 3.3% today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wow. Nat Gas is the only energy up today. Up .6% to 2.34 per mbtu. Still up very nicely over the last couple of weeks. But RBOB (Gas you put in your car) is down 5.5% today to 1.187 per gallon (need to add taxes and transport cost). I did fill up for 1.55 yesterday which was nice. Interesting is heating oil is down 3.3% today as well. Still hard to trust the rally in natty gas. It's been beaten down for so long. But it IS holding up well for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Are you close to I think it's called Pleasant Hill? Ever heard of a place called Stateline By George? I think Pleasant Hill is east of us -- closer to Roanoke Rapids. We are north of Oxford and Roxboro -- got a heavy flurry the other day that dusted the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still hard to trust the rally in natty gas. It's been beaten down for so long. But it IS holding up well for now. It is short term (winter months). Supply is insane right now and until utilities convert to nat gas fully, it will be below $2.00 MBTU for a long time. We just started exporting LNG but we have a 600 year supply using the most conservative estimates. remember, when frackers pull energy from the ground, they pull it all up. Oil, Nat gas, liquids (used in plastics), Propane, and more. Our wells are the most productive wells in terms of nat gas in the world (greater than Russia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It is short term (winter months). Supply is insane right now and until utilities convert to nat gas fully, it will be below $2.00 MBTU for a long time. We just started exporting LNG but we have a 600 year supply using the most conservative estimates. remember, when frackers pull energy from the ground, they pull it all up. Oil, Nat gas, liquids (used in plastics), Propane, and more. Our wells are the most productive wells in terms of nat gas in the world (greater than Russia). That makes sense. I have been looking at UGAZ for a quick trade, but I haven't found an entry point I'm comfortable with. It is a really risky product, especially right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That makes sense. I have been looking at UGAZ for a quick trade, but I haven't found an entry point I'm comfortable with. It is a really risky product, especially right now. If you play that, don't hold it longer than a day or so. Contango will eat it alive when the contracts roll over. Best time to invest in that is when you use your weather knowledge and know it will be cold when people are betting it will be warm or vice versa (IE December of this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Patience abounds.... But so far it is just the look of glancing intrusions on cold and the moisture stream is now directed much further north on the California coast and the moisture stream we were previously in is now shut down. Not as optimistic as I would like to be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the Seahawks and Vikings will kickoff on Sunday with a temp around -3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If you play that, don't hold it longer than a day or so. Contango will eat it alive when the contracts roll over. Best time to invest in that is when you use your weather knowledge and know it will be cold when people are betting it will be warm or vice versa (IE December of this year). Yeah, that's exactly right. I got burned by that last year. The models were showing cold, and NG kept plummeting. So, in and out is the new strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the Seahawks and Vikings will kickoff on Sunday with a temp around -3F. The Vikings should open the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Looks like the Seahawks and Vikings will kickoff on Sunday with a temp around -3F. As a long time Vikings fan I miss the outside winter games from long ago. I am guessing the players don't share my sentiments and would love for the new stadium to be complete so they could play in a controlled environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The Vikings should open the roof. Seattle isn't used to that kind of cold. Wouldn't hurt to have it open, outside of everyone having frostbite and not being able to walk and get concessions. *Question* Are they playing in that college looking stadium? I forgot what was going on with the dome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 i really dont understand why people are upset at what specifics the gfs is showing past 200hrs? give me sustained cold and suppressed storm systems and we WILL cash in. gfs has a history of suppressing systems only to bring the precip north as the event gets closer. the signals are there, the pattern is there, patience. it is jan 6th...not march 6th. All we need is just a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 As a long time Vikings fan I miss the outside winter games from long ago. I am guessing the players don't share my sentiments and would love for the new stadium to be complete so they could play in a controlled environment. I thought it was. Apparently not, HaHa frozen birds for lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 TCF Bank Stadium doesnt have a roof. The cold really changes things, as the panthers learned last year. Good luck punting, kicking or passing the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 They are playing at University of Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 TCF Bank Stadium doesnt have a roof. The cold really changes things, as the panthers learned last year. Good luck punting, kicking or passing the ball. It will have when finished. Which is why they are not playing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm guessing the Vikings/Seahawks game will go down as one of the top 5 coldest football games of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm guessing the Vikings/Seahawks game will go down as one of the top 5 coldest football games of all time. That's what they are saying. 0 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 From Weatherbell Check please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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