FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Shawn, please give your assessment on the current forecast for the Midlands and Upstate - there seems to be some disagreement between GSP and CAE (based on released advisories) - also, temps are shooting up this afternoon! Asheville is nearly 40 degrees! Forecasted high for CAE today was 48. It is 45 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hopefully temps are warmer in this area. Too close for comfort. Local mets seem fairly confident right now that we will avoid most of ice. Wis ran their model for Columbia for 0 ice and 1.4 inches of snow on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Shawn, please give your assessment on the current forecast for the Midlands and Upstate - there seems to be some disagreement between GSP and CAE (based on released advisories) - also, temps are shooting up this afternoon! Asheville is nearly 40 degrees! Columbia on modeling is dangerously close to an ice storm. 33-34F on Euro and GFS. Not a fan. The reason I worry is because cold air damming is underdone a lot of times. We could luck out and it stay to our North. I'd rather be prepared and let people know there is a possibility. I would expect KCAE to issue some sort of watch/warning/advisory around here around 3PM. They already did last night at 4AM right across the lake as I had feared. The Upstate is more than in the game for ice, sleet, snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So how reliable is the cmc at short range ? The CMC does have some great successes in the past. It's biggest success was the Jan 1988 snowstorm and I think GSP or another SE WFO had a great writeup regarding this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Columbia is forecasted to be 7 degrees warmer tomorrow than Charlotte and Greenville. That is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hope that warm before a snow thing is true , it's torchy out ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Local mets seem fairly confident right now that we will avoid most of ice. Wis ran their model for Columbia for 0 ice and 1.4 inches of snow on Sat. Never trust Ben Tanner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC does have some great successes in the past. It's biggest success was the Jan 1988 snowstorm and I think GSP or another SE WFO had a great writeup regarding this. The CMC/GGEM picked up on that Feb 2010 snow event before most modeling too. GFS was sending it to Cuba. Didn't you get some snow off that also? I think the model is now upgraded to higher resolution close to Euro.. but not as good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Local mets seem fairly confident right now that we will avoid most of ice. Wis ran their model for Columbia for 0 ice and 1.4 inches of snow on Sat. Their in house model is most likely the WRF-ARW aka Futurecast/RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC/GGEM picked up on that Feb 2010 snow event before most modeling too. GFS was sending it to Cuba. Didn't you get some snow off that also? I think the model is now upgraded to higher resolution close to Euro.. but not as good lol. My favorite snow of all time. I was in Aiken then. From start to finish it was heavy wet snow. For over 10 hours. Ended up with 9-10 inches. In freaking aiken of all places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC does have some great successes in the past. It's biggest success was the Jan 1988 snowstorm and I think GSP or another SE WFO had a great writeup regarding this. I want to believe the cmc but I just don't know if I can. If the cmc is right then I may go to northeast GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is the WRF-ARW (00z last night).. one frame... of heavier precipitation... stays like this the majority of the run into the Central Midlands to Orangeburg. - The local guys aren't going to show anything nutty until the NWS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Their in house model is most likely the WRF-ARW aka Futurecast/RPM? I don't know but whatever it was basically showed nothing for our area (besides rain), it didn't even show much snow on their futurecast but somehow they still said we might get over an inch. I'll have to watch the other stations to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't know but whatever it was basically showed nothing for our area (besides rain), it didn't even show much snow on their futurecast but somehow they still said we might get over an inch. I'll have to watch the other stations to compare. They won't show much of anything as a whole unless the NWS starts doing it. The job for those guys is to make the public aware of the possibility but not freak everyone out. The best met we have.. is Jim Gandy for what it's worth. He is quite conservative. If I were a betting man, I'd say he currently has a cold rain with backend mix ending at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They won't show much of anything as a whole unless the NWS starts doing it. The job for those guys is to make the public aware of the possibility but not freak everyone out. The best met we have.. is Jim Gandy for what it's worth. He is quite conservative. If I were a betting man, I'd say he currently has a cold rain with backend mix ending at most. He was the only one that nailed Hugo. Btw you are over 50% on ur sig. Are you going to go more in depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They won't show much of anything as a whole unless the NWS starts doing it. The job for those guys is to make the public aware of the possibility but not freak everyone out. The best met we have.. is Jim Gandy for what it's worth. He is quite conservative. I always listen to Jim before anyone else I think he's at a climate conference at the moment. I tweeted with Daniel Bonds last night and he said it's "tricky" so I know they are aware of the potential for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Btw Greenville is going to get a snow of a lifetime be I am home sick. Take it to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC does have some great successes in the past. It's biggest success was the Jan 1988 snowstorm and I think GSP or another SE WFO had a great writeup regarding this. Sure makes it hard to know what to do. Im here in gainesville and was planning to head to clayton and stay Friday and Saturday but the cmc sure gives me pause with plenty of winter weather here without having to worry about traveling very far. Fun storm but as usual 1 or 2 degrees between the ground and 5000 to 6000 feet makes all the difference in the world. Jmust be nice to know it's a lock to get 2 feet plus without worrying about temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 He was the only one that nailed Hugo. Btw you are over 50% on ur sig. Are you going to go more in depth? Haha, there is not much to go in-depth about. It's all dependent on the final track/wedge scenario. Both almost impossible to nail down. ill make a map real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They won't show much of anything as a whole unless the NWS starts doing it. The job for those guys is to make the public aware of the possibility but not freak everyone out. The best met we have.. is Jim Gandy for what it's worth. He is quite conservative. If I were a betting man, I'd say he currently has a cold rain with backend mix ending at most. I don't think anyone around here will know until this event starts to unfold. BUT.....it won't take long to see how far off the rgem is in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here. This is a rough idea that seems most likely for CAE proper/Central Midlands. Not a forecast. It took me 2 minutes to make..... so.. The line stays North of the area for the main event... we will see what the wedge does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC/GGEM picked up on that Feb 2010 snow event before most modeling too. GFS was sending it to Cuba. Didn't you get some snow off that also? I think the model is now upgraded to higher resolution close to Euro.. but not as good lol. Yep. 6" of snow. The CMC was overdone on duration and the amount of snow forecast . the EURO was dead locked in and got QPF and amounts very well but disd good overall on the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2nd to last euro run incoming before this thing cranks up. HERE WE GOOOOOOOOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Stormsfury! I remember your posts way back on storm2k in the early 2000s. If we ever have any tropical trouble I'll definitely be coming here to read your thoughts as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z Euro has the 32F line right across Lake Murray... during heavier precip. Still too close for me. Thicknesses would not support snow during. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sure makes it hard to know what to do. Im here in gainesville and was planning to head to clayton and stay Friday and Saturday but the cmc sure gives me pause with plenty of winter weather here without having to worry about traveling very far. Fun storm but as usual 1 or 2 degrees between the ground and 5000 to 6000 feet makes all the difference in the world. Jmust be nice to know it's a lock to get 2 feet plus without worrying about temps Only thing is the CMC does have a tendency to overdo things but definitely isn't a horrible model, and overall does have a good track record when sniffing out winter weather. Also, it really picked out the major icestorm in Feb 2014 first I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Stormsfury! I remember your posts way back on storm2k in the early 2000s. If we ever have any tropical trouble I'll definitely be coming hear to read your thoughts as well! Hey Brandon. I forgot my login there so I haven't been on there in years. Good people though and miss a lot of the peeps there. When that time arises as time allows I will be here posting about that side of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I saw the DC mayor on TV about an hour and a half ago. She said they were treating this as a homeland security event. I almost expect to see them loading C-130s with snow and sending them to GITMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at WXBell maps, the Euro now would have ice into the Central Midlands. Colder run. UGH! The frame jumps ahead, but seems heavier precip helps get us to 30-32F in a lot of spots. Then the handoff happens I would think.. and we warm to around 35. So tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at WXBell maps, the Euro now would have ice into the Central Midlands. Colder run. UGH! Maybe we will get lucky and it keeps going south. Moving us into the snow or sleet range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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